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극한강우 및 홍수피해 인과관계 평가: 충청지역 사례를 중심으로
바실아델러둔 ( Bashir Adelodun ),골든오데이 ( Golden Odey ),쿠두스아데이 ( Qudus Adeyi ),최경숙 ( Kyung Sook Choi ) 한국농공학회 2023 한국농공학회 학술대회초록집 Vol.2023 No.0
Flood, one of the major natural disasters responsible for direct economic damage in South Korea, has become an increasing event in recent times. Driven by climate change, precipitation extremes play a significant role on the flood damage and its further increase will exacerbate the socioeconomic impact in the country. However, the empirical evidence linking precipitation extremes to the historical flood damage is limited. Thus, understanding the causal link between extreme precipitation characteristics and flood damage are critical to provide important policies on preparedness and adaptation strategies to mitigate the disasters associated with flood events. The spatial and temporal changes of precipitation extremes from 10 synoptic stations based on daily precipitation data were analyzed using the ClimPACT2 tool and Mann-Kendall test. The four precipitation extreme indices consisting of consecutive wet days (CWD), number of very heavy precipitation wet days (R30 mm), maximum 1-day precipitation amount (Rx1day), and simple daily precipitation intensity (SDII), which represent changes in intensity, frequency, and duration, respectively, and the time series data on flooded area and flood damage from 1985 to 2020 were used to investigate the causal relationship in the ARDL-ECM framework and pairwise Granger causality analysis. The trend results showed that majority of the precipitation indices indicated positive trends, however, CWD showed no significant changes. ARDL-ECM framework showed that there was a long-run relationship among the variables. Further analysis on the empirical results showed that flooded area and Rx1day have significant positive impacts on the flood damage in both short and long-runs while R30 mm only indicated significant positive impact in the short-run, both in the current period, which implies that an increase in flooded area, Rx1day, and R30 mm will cause an increase in the flood damage. The pairwise Granger analysis showed unidirectional causality from the flooded area, R30 mm, Rx1day, and SDII to flood damage. Thus, these precipitation indices could be useful as indicators of pluvial flood damage in Chungcheong region.
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골든오데이 ( Golden Odey ),바실아델러둔 ( Bashir Adelodun ),이슬기 ( Seulgi Lee ),쿠두스아데이 ( Qudus Adeyi ),최경숙 ( Kyung Sook Choi ) 한국농공학회 2023 한국농공학회 학술대회초록집 Vol.2023 No.0
Water demand management is a crucial approach for ensuring sustainable water supply. To ensure an effective water demand management, it is essential to have a good understanding of public perceptions of water use. In this study, we examined the perceptions of water use and virtual water of Daegu inhabitants in South Korea, with a focus on understanding their sociodemographic characteristics, water-saving behaviors, environmental attitudes, and accuracy in estimating water use and virtual water content. The results indicated that the majority of respondents were aware of the need for water conservation but exhibited only moderate engagement in water-saving behaviors. They consistently underestimated their water use across various activities (portable drinking water, shower, toilet flush, laundry and car wash), indicating a lack of understanding regarding the magnitude of water consumption. Similarly, respondents had limited awareness of the virtual water content in different products, with inaccurate perceptions of water-intensive products. Sociodemographic factors such as gender, education level, annual income, and family size significantly influenced perceptions of water use, while environmental attitudes played a significant role in the perceptions of both water use and virtual water content. The study highlights the need for educational initiatives to enhance public awareness and understanding of water use and virtual water, particularly in addressing misconceptions and promoting sustainable water management practices. While the findings are specific to Daegu city, they provide insights that can inform water management strategies in other cities globally.
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Developing a hydrological model for evaluating the future flood risks in rural areas
쿠두스 아데이,미르자 주네이드 아흐메드,바실 아델러둔,오데이 골든,아디사 하메드 아킨소지,라흐몬 아비오던 살라우,최경숙 한국수자원학회 2023 한국수자원학회논문집 Vol.56 No.12
Climate change is expected to amplify the future flooding risks in rural areas which could have devastating implications for the sustainability of the agricultural sector and food security in South Korea. In this study, spatially disaggregated and statistically bias-corrected outputs from three global circulation models (GCMs) archived in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and 6) were used to project the future climate by 2100 under medium and extreme scenarios. A hydrological model was developed to simulate the flood phenomena at the Shindae experimental site located in the Chungcheongbuk Province, South Korea. Hourly rainfall, inundation depth, and discharge data collected during the two extreme events that occurred in 2021 and 2022 were used to calibrate and validate the hydrological model. Probability analysis of extreme rainfall data suggested a higher likelihood of intense and unprecedented extreme rainfall events, which would be particularly notable during 2051-2100. Consequently, the flooded area under an inundation depth of >700 mm increased by 13-36%, 54-74%, and 71-90% during 2015-2030, 2031-2050, and 2051-2100, respectively. Severe flooding probability was notably higher under extreme CMIP6 scenarios than under their CMIP5 counterparts.
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