대학 정보공시 데이터베이스(DB)를 활용한 자율개선대학선정 예측에 관한 실증연구

채동우,전병훈,정군오,Chae, Dong Woo,Jeon, Byung Hoon,Jung, Kun Oh 한국데이터전략학회 2021 Journal of information technology applications & m Vol.28 No.6

Due to the decrease in the school-age population and government regulations, universities have made great efforts to secure their own competitiveness. In particular, the selection of universities with financial support based on the recent evaluation of the Ministry of Education has become a major concern enough to affect the existence of the university itself. This paper extracts three-year data from 124 major private universities nationwide, and quantitatively analyzes the variables of major universities selected as self-improvement universities, competency reinforcement universities, and universities with limited financial support. As a result of estimating the selection of self-powered universities using the ordered logit model by hierarchically inputting 12 variables, student competitiveness in the metropolitan area (1.318^**), Educational Restitution Rate (4.078^***), University operation expenditure index rate (1.088^***) values were found. Significant positive coefficient values were found in the admission enrollment rate (45.98^***) and the enrollment rate (13.25^***). As a result of analyzing the marginal effects, the increase in the rate of reduction of education costs has always been positive in the selection of self-powered universities, but it was observed that the rate of increase decreases in areas of increase of 150% or more. On the contrary, the probability of becoming a Em-powered university was negative in all sectors, but on the contrary, it was analyzed that marginal effects increased at the same time point. On the other hand, the employment rate of graduates was not able to find direct significance with the result of the selection of Self powered universities. Through this paper, it is expected that each university will analyze the possibility and shortcomings of the selection of Self powered universities in policy making, and in particular, the risk of dropout of selection for the vulnerable field can be predicted using marginal effects. It can be used as major research data for both university evaluators, university officials and students.

전국 사립대학의 특허출원 경쟁력에 관한 실증 연구: 대학정보공시자료 분석을 통한 음이항회귀모형의 실질적 활용

채동우 ( Dong Woo Chae ),이상윤 ( Sang Youn Lee ) 한국비교경제학회 2022 비교경제연구 Vol.29 No.1

코로나 사태 이후 사립대학은 학령인구의 감소 등 급변하는 교육생태계의 변화에 대하여 능동적으로 대처하고 준비할 현실에 직면하였다. 사립대는 갈수록 치열해지는 교육시장의 변화의 일로에 있다. 아울러, 대학의 특허출원 경쟁력은 사학이 갖추어야 할 또 하나의 주요한 정책으로 활용할 수 있는 좋은 발판이 된다. 본 연구는 전국 사립대학 453건의 특허출원과 관련한 인과관계를 다중 회귀모형과 가산자료 모형을 활용하여 분석하였다. 검정결과 대학평가에서 자율개선대학으로 선정된 고등교육 기관은 특허출원 경쟁력과 높은 유의적 상관관계를 보였다. 특히 연구지원 기반 측면에서는 교원 당 연구비 지원 규모와, 산학협력단의 지원 규모가 증가할수록 연구특허 취득 건수에 긍정적 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었다. 아울러 학생중심의 창업동아리 지원을 확대하는 대학일수록 지적재산권 생산도 동시에 증가하는 결과가 나타났다. 본 연구를 활용하여 대학이 급변하는 환경에서 학생들의 등록금 수입에만 의존하는 정책에서 탈피하여, 앞으로 나아가야할 방향을 삼고, 산·학·연 합동상생체계를 구축하여 대학 자체의 특허경쟁력을 확보해 나가는 하나의 좋은 참고자료가 되기를 기대한다. After the Covid-19, private universities faced the reality that they had to actively cope with and prepare for the changing educational ecosystem such as the decline in the school-age population. As the increasingly fierce changes in the education market, the competitiveness of universities’ patent applications can be utilized as another major policy. As a result of analyzing 453 private universities nationwide using a Multiple Regression Model and an Negative Binomial Model, universities that were selected as self-powered showed a significant strong positive correlation with the competitiveness of patent applications. In terms of research infrastructure, it was analyzed that the larger the amount of research funding per faculty and the more positive the number of patents had been. In addition, as universities expanding support for student start-up clubs, the production of intellectual property rights increased at the same time. Using this research, we don’t have to rely solely on student tuition income in a rapidly changing educational environment, and to establish the direction to move forward, and to secure the university’s own patent competitiveness by utilizing industry, academia, and research cluster. We look forward to this as a reference.

빅 데이터를 활용한 대학의 지역·권역별 학과의 미충원 파급구조 연구: 패널회귀모형과 토빗회귀모형의 응용을 중심으로

채동우(Dong Woo Chae),정군오(Kun Oh Jung) 한국데이터전략학회 2023 Journal of information technology applications & m Vol.30 No.1

This study observes the difference in the actual regional ripple effect of the decrease in admission resources due to the decrease in school age population, which has been weak in empirical studies, and how much the decrease in competition rate by department nationwide provides a significant shock to the decrease in enrollment rate in the population unit. An empirical quantitative analysis was attempted. As a result of applying the panel-tobit regression model, a clear gap was confirmed in the decrease in the registration rate due to the decrease in the competition rate both nationally and in the provinces, and in particular, a highly significant relationship was derived with the decrease in the recruitment rate. In particular, the sensitivity of the risk of unrecruitment due to a decrease in competition rate was the highest in the Jeolla region (0.499), followed by the Gangwon region (0.475) and the Gyeongsang region (0.471), and the metropolitan region (0.158) was confirmed to be the most stable. This suggests that the gap in insufficient funding has gradually widened by region over the past 10 years, and that the shock wave becomes more pronounced in the provinces farther away from the metropolitan area. Based on this study, if we deviate from the standardized application of university development policies for the metropolitan area and regional universities, and present a customized higher education strategy for each region, it will be an opportunity to prevent local extinction due to a decrease in the school-age population and achieve coexistence with higher education institutions and regions at the same time.

중국 유학생의 학업성취 및 중도탈락 분석에 관한 실증연구

채동우(Dong Woo Chae),진국화(Guo Hua Chen),정군오(Kun Oh Jung) 한국데이타베이스학회 2020 Journal of information technology applications & m Vol.27 No.3

In response to the recent decline in the school-age population, universities have made attracting foreign students a major policy task for universities. As a result, the number of foreign students increased rapidly in terms of quantity, but in terms of quality, the risk is inevitable. Accordingly, the government presented education and internationalization competency certification system indicators on the basis of which quality control of students was systematized. Based on the above certification system, this study focused on analyzing the multiple factors that are actually given to the academic adaptation (performance) of the 2200 students who entered a certain university. In addition, factors other than the certification system index were discovered to comprehensively track how they affect the academic performance of students studying abroad. The researcher found the multireciprocal model analysis showed that the difference between the learner and the moderator was significant, and whether or not they had the Korean proficiency test (TOPIK) was significant. It also said that it could have a direct impact on Chinese University Entrance Exams (高考) are significant. If a model that is very effective in selecting students is established by each university and used as an indicator through this study, it will serve as a basis for efficient selection of students.

중 · 고령층의 소비에 영향을 미치는 요인에 관한 실증연구 : 패널모형과 분위수회귀모형을 활용한 연령구분 그룹 간 비교 분석

채동우(Dong-woo Chae),박현식(Hyeon-shik Park) 비판과 대안을 위한 사회복지학회 2023 비판사회정책 Vol.- No.79

학교 대면 수업 재개와 2차 감염자 분석 : 몬테카를로 기법 적용을 중심으로

조상섭(Sang-Sup Cho),채동우(Dong-Woo Chae),임승주(Seung-Joo Lim) 한국데이타베이스학회 2021 Journal of information technology applications & m Vol.28 No.1

In this study, we estimated the number of secondary COVID-19 infections caused by students with potential transmission potential home. When the existing Monte Carlo method was applied to Korean data, the average number of household members of the second COVID-19 infected was predicted. The summary of this study is as follows. First, in general, the number of secondary infections by students returning home from school is greatly influenced by the virus infection rate of each student group they contact while returning home from school. Korea-based empirical research on this is needed. Second, the number of secondary infections by Korean students was relatively lower than that of previous studies. This can be interpreted as being due to the domestic furniture structure. Third, unlike previous studies that assumed the distribution of secondary infected individuals as normal distribution, assuming a negative binomial distribution, the number of secondary infected individuals was sensitively changed according to the estimated parameters. Interpretation of this result shows that the number of secondary infections may vary depending on the time of decision making, the target region, and the target student group. Finally, according to the results of this analysis, a proposal was made to support education policy decisions.

질병과 경제성장에 관한 연구: 실증적 고찰

조상섭 ( Cho Sang Sup ),채동우 ( Chae Dong Woo ) 한국비교경제학회 2023 비교경제연구 Vol.30 No.2

인류가 당면한 현대의 세계는 여러 질병을 극복함과 동시에, 전 세계적 보건정책 추진으로 평균 기대 수명증가가 지속되고 있다. 이는 기술의 발전에 따라 수반되는 필연적인 현상이다. 이와 관련하여 기대 수명 증대가 경제성장에 어떤 영향을 주었는지에 대한 문제 제기는 보건 분야뿐만 아니라 경제발전 분야에 핵심 쟁점으로 부각하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라 1980년대 초부터 2019년까지 산업화와 함께 기대 수명과 경제적 성장과의 실증적 관계를 추적하여 보았다. 실증 분석 결과, 첫째, 1981년부터 기대 수명의 변화에 큰 증가가 있었지만, 경제성장에 대한 영향 정도는 기대 수명증가율에 따라서 긍정적 부분과 부정적 부분으로 구분 되어 나타나는 현상을 보였다. 인구 천 명당 의사 증가율을 통제변수로 사용하였을 때, 기대 수명 증가율은 일인당 GDP 증가율에 미치는 영향이 비선형적으로 분석되었다. 둘째, 결과적으로 기대 수명증가는 1인당 소득 증가에 미치는 수준은 5.8%를 임계값으로 부정적 효과(작을 경우)와 긍정적 효과(큰 경우)로 이분화 되는 현상이 나타났다. 본 논고의 결과에서 나타난 경제성장과 기대 수명 사이에 비선형성을 고려할 때 기존 상반된 연구 결과를 통합적으로 설명할 수 있었다. 본 논고를 토대로 국내 보건 정책의 효율적 수립에 필요한 준거자료가 되기를 기원한다. In the modern world that mankind is facing, the average life expectancy continues to increase due to global health policies, while overcoming various diseases. In this regard, raising the question of how the increase in life expectancy has affected economic growth is emerging as a key issue not only in the health field but also in the field of economic development. This study examines the empirical relationship between life expectancy and economic growth along with industrialization from the early 1980s to 2019 in Korea. As a result of empirical analysis, first, there was a large increase in the change in life expectancy from 1981, but the degree of influence on economic growth was divided into positive and negative parts according to the increase in life expectancy. When the growth rate of doctors per 1,000 population was used as a control variable, the effect of life expectancy growth rate on per capita GDP growth rate was analyzed non-linearly. Second, as a result, the level of life expectancy increase on per capita income increase was 5.8% as a threshold value, and a phenomenon was observed in which negative effects (small cases) and positive effects (large cases) were found. Considering the nonlinearity between economic growth and life expectancy shown in the results of this study, it was possible to comprehensively explain the conflicting results of previous studies.