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공간정보와 생육모의에 의한 남한 벼 품종의 북한 서부지대 적응성 예측
김영호 ( Y. H. Kim ),김희동 ( H. D. Kim ),한상욱 ( S. W. Han ),최재연 ( J. Y. Choi ),구자민 ( J. M. Koo ),정유란 ( U. L. Chung ),김재영 ( J. Y. Kim ),윤진일 ( Jin I. Yun ) 한국농림기상학회 2002 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.4 No.4
A long-term growth simulation was performed at 496 land units in the western coastal plains (WCP) of North Korea to test the potential adaptability of each land unit for growing South Korean rice cultivars. The land units for rice cultivation (CZU), each of them represented by a geographically referenced 5 by 5 km grid cell, were identified by analyzing satellite remote sensing data. Surfaces of monthly climatic normals for daily maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, number of rain days and solar radiation were generated at a 1 by 1 km interval by spatial statistical methods using observed data at 51 synoptic weather stations in North and South Korea during 1981-2000. Grid cells falling within a same CZU and, at the same time, corresponding to the satellite data- identified rice growing pixels were extracted and aggregated to make a spatially explicit climatic normals relevant to the rice growing area of the CZU. Daily weather dataset for 30 years was randomly generated from the monthly climatic normals of each CZU. Growth and development parameters of CERES-rice model suitable for 11 major South Korean cultivars were derived from long-term field observations. Eight treatments comprised of 2 transplanting dates×2 cropping systems×2 irrigation methods were assigned to each cultivar. Each treatment was simulated with the randomly generated 30 years` daily weather data (from planting to physiological maturity) for 496 land units in WCP to simulate the growth and yield responses to the interannual climate variation. The same model was run with the input data from the 3 major crop experiment stations in South Korea to obtain a 30 year normal performance of each cultivar, which was used as a reference for comparison. Results were analyzed with respect to spatial and temporal variation in yield and maturity, and used to evaluate the suitability of each land unit for growing a specific South Korean cultivar. The results may be utilized as decision aids for agrotechnology transfer to North Korea, for example, germplasm evaluation, resource allocation and crop calendar preparation.
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