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정건호,염봉진,Jung, Kun-Ho,Yum, Bong-Jin 한국군사과학기술학회 2009 한국군사과학기술학회지 Vol.12 No.2
Some of the wargame simulators currently used in the Korean Army were developed by other countries, and do not adequately reflect the Korean Peninsula terrain and weapon systems. This implies that these war game simulators need to be calibrated with respect to the input parameters for properly assessing the effectiveness of the Korean weapon systems. In this paper, AWAM, a wargame simulator, is calibrated in terms of the time-based fighting power(FP). The FP data obtained from the Korea Combat Training Center(KCTC) are used as a reference, and the differences between the AWAM and KCTC FP data are calculated at certain points in time. Then, the Taguchi robust design method is adopted using the probabilities of hitting for the K-2 rifle as controllable input parameters. Two performance characteristics are used. One is the difference between the AWAM and KCTC FP data and the other is the score derived by grouping the difference data. For each case, optimal settings of the probabilities of hitting are determined such that the mean of each characteristic is close to 0 with its dispersion being as small as possible.
워게임 메타모델 수립을 위한 실험계획 및 모델링 방법에 관한 비교 연구
유권태,염봉진,Yoo, Kwon-Tae,Yum, Bong-Jin 한국국방경영분석학회 2007 한국국방경영분석학회지 Vol.33 No.1
컴퓨터 시뮬레이션 모델은 일반적으로 복잡할 뿐더러 운용 시 많은 시간이 소요된다. 따라서 분석의 편의를 위해 좀 더 간단한 메타모델을 수립할 필요가 있다. 본 논문에서는 워게임 모델 JANUS를 사용하여 전차 전투 상황을 묘사하고 이에 대한 메타모델을 수립하였다. 메타모델을 수립하기 위해, 데이터 수집방법으로는 8가지의 실험계획법을, 모델링 방법으로는 2차 반응표면분석과 인공신경망을 고려하였다. 수립된 메타모델의 상대적 성능은 예측치의 평균제곱오차를 기준으로 비교하였다. 본 논문에서 고려한 전투상황에 대해서는 대체적으로 2차 반응표면 모형이 인공신경망 모형보다 더 높은 정확도를 보였으며, 실험계획법으로는 직교배열이나 최대최소거리 기준을 적용한 라틴 하이퍼큐브 계획법이 우수한 성능을 보였다. Computer simulation models are in general quite complex and time-consuming to run, and therefore, a simpler meta-model is usually constructed for further analysis. In this paper, JANUS, a war-game simulator, is used to describe a certain tank combat situation. Then, second-order response surface and artificial neural network meta-models are developed using the data from eight different experimental designs. Relative performances of the developed meta-models are compared in terms of the mean squared error of prediction. Computational results indicate that, for the given problem, the second-order response surface meta-model generally performs better than the neural network, and the orthogonal array-based Latin hypercube design(LHD) or LHD using maximin distance criterion may be recommended.
작전부대의 인원편성 최적화를 위한 워게임 전투실험 방법에 대한 연구
이용빈,염봉진,Lee, Yong-Bin,Yum, Bong-Jin 한국군사과학기술학회 2011 한국군사과학기술학회지 Vol.14 No.3
Warfighting experimentation is an important process for identifying requirements against changing military environment and for verifying proposed measures for reforming military service. The wargame simulation experiment is regarded as one of the most effective means to warfighting experimentation, and its importance is increasing than ever. On the other hand, the results of wargame experiments could be unreliable due to the uncertainty involved in the experimental procedure. To improve the reliability of the experimental results, systematic experimental procedures and analysis methods must be employed, and the design and analysis of experiments technique can be used effectively for this purpose. In this paper, AWAM, a wargame simulator, is used to optimize the organization of operational troops. The simulation model describes a warfighting situation in which the 'survival rate of our force' and the 'survival rate of the enemy force' are considered as responses, 'the numbers of weapons in the squad' as control factors, and 'the uncontrollable variables of the battlefield' as noise factors. In addition, for the purpose of effective experimentation, the product array approach in which the inner and outer orthogonal arrays are crossed is adopted. Then, the signal-to-noise-ratio for each response and the desirabilities for the means and standard deviations of responses are calculated and used to determine a compromise optimal solution. The experimental procedures and analysis methods developed in this paper can provide guidelines for designing and analyzing wargame simulation experiments for similar warfighting situations.
이성환,염봉진,Lee, Sung-Hwan,Yum, Bong-Jin 한국군사과학기술학회 2006 한국군사과학기술학회지 Vol.9 No.2
The purpose of this paper is to present reliability analysis procedures for repairable systems and apply the procedures for assessing the reliabilities of two subsystems of a specific group of military equipment based on field failure data. The mean cumulative function, M(t), the average repair rate, ARR(t), and analytic test methods are used to determine whether a failure process follows a renewal or non-renewal process. For subsystem A, the failure process turns out to follow a homogeneous Poisson process, and subsequently, its mean time between failures, availability, and the necessary number of spares are estimated. For subsystem B, the corresponding M(t) plot shows an increasing trend, indicating that its failure process follows a non-renewal process. Therefore, its M(t) is modeled as a power function of t, and a preventive maintenance policy is proposed based on the annual mean repair cost.
구간 고장 데이터가 주어진 수리가능 시스템의 신뢰도 분석절차 개발 및 사례연구
조차현,염봉진,Cho, Cha-Hyun,Yum, Bong-Jin 한국군사과학기술학회 2011 한국군사과학기술학회지 Vol.14 No.5
The purpose of this paper is to develop reliability analysis procedures for repairable systems with interval failure time data and apply the procedures for assessing the storage reliability of a subsystem of a certain type of guided missile. In the procedures, the interval failure time data are converted to pseudo failure times using the uniform random generation method, mid-point method or equispaced intervals method. Then, such analytic trend tests as Laplace, Lewis-Robinson, Pair-wise Comparison Nonparametric tests are used to determine whether the failure process follows a renewal or non-renewal process. Monte Carlo simulation experiments are conducted to compare the three conversion methods in terms of the statistical performance for each trend test when the underlying process is homogeneous Poisson, renewal, or non-homogeneous Poisson. The simulation results show that the uniform random generation method is best among the three. These results are applied to actual field data collected for a subsystem of a certain type of guided missile to identify its failure process and to estimate its mean time to failure and annual mean repair cost.