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價格變化에 대한 農民의「意圖的」反應 : 主穀生産을 中心으로 with Reference to Foodgrain production
文八龍 韓國農業政策學會 1973 농업경영정책연구 Vol.1 No.1
From the standpoint of public policy, it is important to know the degree of producers' response to price changes ; the degree of response measured in terms of price elasticities. The elasticity of aggregate output with respect to its price is the sum of the elasticities of planted acreage, both with respect to the product price. That is E_qp=E_yp+E_ap where : E_qp=Price elasticity of aggregate output. E_yp=Price elasticity of yield. E_ap=Price elasticity of planted acreage. The response of yield to price changes is dependent upon the response of yield to input application and the elasticities of demand for each input factor with respect to $quot;$quot;expected price$quot;$quot; for the product relative to input prices. In other words, yield is a function of productivities of inputs and the level of inputs used. The level of input use in turn depends upon the $quot;$quot;expected price$quot;$quot; of the product relative to input prices. This relation can be formulated as : (수식생략) where : E_yp=Elasticity of yield with respect to product price. e_yx_i=Elasticity of yield with respect to input x_i. e_x_ip=Elasticity of demand for input x_i with respect to product price. Hence, the procedure for estimating yield elasticity requires the combination of two separate estimates : production function for yield and demand functions for inputs used. The response to price changes of planted acreage of a given crop is hypothesized to depend on the expected price of corresponding output and the planted acreage in the previous year. The model adopted is : where : A_t=planted acreage for the current output. A_t-1=planted acreage in the previous year. The estimated elasticity is conceptually comparable with that of yield in that the planted acreage reflects the farmers' intention or plan for the current production. The estimated coefficient, a₁, gives the short-run elasticity of acreage and (1-a₂) the adjustment coefficient of the current acreage to product price changes. Throughout this study, it is assumed that farm producers response to price of a given crop is not influenced by the price of other crops both in input demand and planted acreage. The factors for these rigidities which condition the farmers' decision-making are many and complicated. Resulting aggregate response for rice is .326, those for common barley and naked barley are .470 and .385, respectively. Approximately 10 percent increase in relative price of product will induce farmers to increase rice production by 3 percent, barley by 5 percent and naked barley by 4 percent. Thus, the empirical analysis indicates that average Korean farmers do respond in their grain production to changes in relative product price and they tend to be more responsive in barley cultivation than in rice. This implies a possibility that an appropriate price policy in favor barley would contribute relatively more to achieving increased food grain production. Especially, the higher yield response for barley indicates a potential to improve the average productivity of land and other productive factors.
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農業部門 投資事業의 經濟的 效果分析의 規準設定에 관한 硏究
文八龍 건국대학교 1979 學術誌 Vol.23 No.1
The objective in undertaking a public investment is, in broad sense, to increase social welfare. Where investment resources are as limited as in the agricultural sector in Korea, it is of the greatest importance to establish "investment criteria" to make correct choices among alternative investment opportunities in accordance with this objective. It is generally accepted that social welfare is a function off number of variables which include economic efficiency, the distribution of income, regional development, and national defense, etc. It is ideal that one would design a model which would predict the effect of each investment project on these variables and obtain a complete ranking of the alternatives. In practice this ideal is seldom attainable, and the economic analyist should be content to present an incomplete display of the effects of each investment project on the important variables, leaving the problem of weighing the various consequences to policy decision maker. There is, however, a class of agricultural investments where economic efficiency may be assumed to be the primary objective, and for most agricultural programs the problem of choosing between alternative investments may be so structured that the choice can be made on the basis of efficiency criteria. Where increased economic efficiency is the primary objective, benefit cost analysis can be used to obtain a ranking of alternative investments. This paper outlines in chapter II the general framework of benefit cost analysis and gives the underlying rationale behind the procedure. If the objective of economic analysis of agricultural projects is to compare benefits with costs to determine which among alternative is more remunerative, then the costs and benefits have to be identified. In chapter III, the nature and the desired measure of benefits and costs are discussed. The treatment of identifying costs and benefits is directed toward practical, operating approaches to the appraisal of agricultural projects. Chapter IV discusses the problem of valueing costs and benefits. There have been controversies over wether current market prices correspond to the true social values in measuring the erects of public investments. It is a general concensus that market prices cannot be applied as a yardstick of true social value when the market functions imperfectly. In chapter V the various problems pertaining to determination of discount rate are discussed. One of the central problems in benefit cost analysis is how to make commensurable the values of benefits and coats which occur at different tines. Also three indicators of investment efficiency are explained: they are (1) benefit cost ratio, (2) net present worth, and to (3) the internal rate of return. Each of these indicators has merits and demerits depending on the purpose of its application and the nature of the investment to which it is applied. Finally, in chapter VI two case studies have been made on the irrigation projects : Taean pumping station project and Jongan reservoir project. On the basis of available data, various irrigation effects are measured, touch as the creation of farmland basis, changes in cropping pattern, increase in yield per hectare, and increase in labor productivity. Also the internal rate of return was computed for each project.
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