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        게임이론을 통해 살펴본 역대정부의 대북정책 연구

        류호국,임계환,Ryu, Ho-Kuk,Lim, Gye-Hwan 한국융합보안학회 2017 융합보안 논문지 Vol.17 No.1

        This study focuses on the fact that the past government has been consistent with the one-sided withdrawal policy without any clear countermeasures in relation to the ongoing nuclear development of the DPRK. The purpose of this study is to improve the understanding of South Korea's North Korea policy and to present the direction of the North Korea policy in the future by comparing and researching the North Korea policy pursued by Lee Myung - bak government / Park-Geun-Hye government. Such an attempt will provide a basis for evaluating the previous government's policies toward North Korea, and will also help to find alternatives to sustainable inter-Korean relations and North Korea policy to achieve a unified Korea. 본 연구는 북한의 지속적인 핵 개발과 관련하여 역대정부에서는 지금까지 이에 대응하는 뚜렷 대안없이 일방적으로 끌려가는 정책에 일관해 왔다는점에 초점을 맞춰 과거 진보정부(국민의 정부 / 참여정부)와 보수정부(이명박 정부 / 박근혜 정부)가 추진해온 대북정책에 대해 게임이론을 통해 비교 연구함으로써 한국의 대북정책에 대한 이해를 증진시킴과 동시에 향후 바람직한 대북정책의 방향을 제시하는데 목적이 있다. 이러한 시도는 역대정부의 대북정책을 평가할 수 있는 기준을 제시할 수 있을 것이며, 나아가 지속 가능한 남북관계와 통일한국을 달성할 수 있는 대북정책의 대안을 모색하는데도 일조할 것이다.

      • 북한 비핵화 전망과 한국의 과제

        류호국 ( Ryu Ho-kook ) 한국군사학회 2018 군사논단 Vol.96 No.-

        Since the 2018 Winter Olympics in PyeongChang, the security situation on the Korean peninsula has been changing rapidly. North Korea and the US-North Korea summit, and the expectation that the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula could be realized, is putting a mood of thawing. North Korean leader Kim Jong Eun pointed out that there is no reason to possess nuclear weapons if military threats are resolved and North Korea's system security is guaranteed, and proposed a summit for inter-Korean summit. but, three summit talks and six summit talks with North Korea in Singapore have been conducted to date, but they have failed to find clear results and consensus in the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. It is a historical thing that the two Koreas, who have been hostile to each other for 70 years, have had three summits only in one year. Nevertheless, the 9.19 Pyongyang Joint Declaration has reaffirmed the "road to denuclearization". At present, it is difficult to predict the future of the North Korean nuclear issue, and it is expected that it will take much effort and time until the complete denuclearization is achieved. In this article, we will try to objectively examine whether North Korea can easily give up its nuclear weapons and the sword and sword that it has accomplished for decades. To do this, we first examine the necessity of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, the hidden intentions and strategies of North Korea, and anticipate the process of achieving denuclearization. In addition, we will identify the issues to be solved until the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula is realized from the perspective of political security and suggest future directions.

      • 역대정부(진보/보수)의 대북정책 비교 연구

        류호국 ( Ryu Ho-kook ) 한국군사학회 2017 군사논단 Vol.91 No.-

        The previous studies analyzing the individual government's policy toward North Korea in South Korea' s policy toward North Korea can be considered to be both quantitative and qualitative. However, previous researches that explain and analyze North Korea policy of the past government from the perspective of progress and remuneration are insufficient in both quantitative and qualitative perspectives. In particular, there are very few previous studies comparing and analyzing the North Korean policies of the progressive government (Kim Dae Jung, Roh Moo Hyun) and the conservative government (Lee Myung Bak and Park Geun-hye). The purpose of this study is to improve understanding of South Korea's North Korea policy and to search for the direction of the North Korea policy in the future by comparing and analyzing the North Korean policy of the Progressive Government (Kim Dae Jung, Roh Moo Hyun) . The progressive government's policy toward North Korea has consistently strived to draw North Korea' s denuclearization through economic incentives. The Kim Dae - jung government can not conclude that the North failed to achieve its goal of denuclearization because it failed to prevent North Korea's nuclear development following the Geneva Accords and caused the second nuclear crisis. The Roh Moo-hyun administration also had many achievements such as the six-party talks held during its term, but it has not only caused many problems in terms of international cooperation, but also failed to do so in solving the North Korean nuclear issue through unilateral efforts to promote peace and prosperity. The conservative government's policy toward North Korea is that the two governments have been constantly insisting on the re - unification of the post - nuclear disarmament and the post - war reunification. The Lee Myung-bak administration has pursued a policy of "non-nuclear and open-door 3000," that is, a unilateral hard-line policy toward North Korea. As a result, South-North cooperation, which has gradually diminished since the government started, It is evaluated as the worst policy of the past that caused the result. In addition, Park Geun-hyeh's government, unlike the Lee Myung-bak government's five-year government, whose inter-Korean relations were rapidly cooled by a one-sided approach that ignored the reciprocal view of North Korea, Which is the world's largest economy. North Korea's policy is one of the areas where actual results are hard to come up. So far, our government's policy toward North Korea has been changing every time the government is changed. Above all, consistent policy implementation is urgently needed, and in the situation where North Korea negotiates with the US on the Korean peninsula with nuclear and ICBM, we should prepare for the worst situation with all possibility in mind to solve the nuclear problem. Therefore, it should not be neglected in strategic planning and policy infrastructure construction, and should be prepared for future crises and opportunities by investing high quality human and material resources and establishing practical strategy.

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