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류병로,한양수,두민호,조성근 大田産業大學校 1998 한밭대학교 논문집 Vol.15 No.1
In the most cases we analyze a single time series without explicitly using information contained in the related time series In many forecasting situations, other events will systematically influence the series to be forecasted(the dependent variables), and therefore, there is need to go beyond a univariate forecasting model. Thus, we must build a forecasting model that incorporates more than one time series and introduces explicitly the dynamic characteristics of the system. Such a model in called a multiple time series model or transfer function model. The purpose of this study is to develop the stochastic stream water quality model of Puyea station in Keum river system. The performance of the multiplicative ARIMA model and the multiple input-single output transfer function model were examined through comparisons between the historical and generated monthly dissolved oxygen series. The result reveal that the multiple input-single output model lead to teh improved accuracy.
광폭하구에서의 오염물질 확신이송 모형 (BAYQUAL) 개발
류병로,한양수,두민호,유병연 大田産業大學校 1998 한밭대학교 논문집 Vol.15 No.1
The objective of this research is to develop the water quality simulation model (BAYQUAL) that deal with the physical and chemical aspects of rate/behavior of pollutants in the bay BAYQUAL is a two dimensional, time-variable finite element water quality model. This modeling system was designed to provide the generality and flexibility necessary for analyzing a verity of water quality problems in a diverse set of water bodies. The algorithm is composed of a hydrodynamic module(BAYQUAL) which solves the equations of motion and continuity, a pollutant dispersion module which solves the dispersion-advection equation. The applicability and feasibility of the model are discussed by applications of the model to the Kwangyang bay of South Coastal Waters of Korea. Based on the field data, the BAYQUAL model was calibrated and verified. The results were in good agreement with measured value within relative error of 3% for COD. Numerical simulations of velocity components and tide amplitude were agreed closely with the actual data.