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계절조절법 X11과 X11-ARIMA 적용에 관한 실증적 연구
金常照,宋東燮,張外景 상명대학교 경영연구소 1993 경영학연구 Vol.- No.1
Time series refers to the collection of variabies we obverved as time goes on. The seasonal variation adjustment in time series means raw series minus the factor of seasonal variation such as the repetion of seasons, social and economic customs. The methods of seasonal adjustment are Act 11, X11, which was made by the Bureau of Sensus in the Minstry of commercial affairs in America, and X11-ARIMA, which was made by the Bureau of statistics in Canada. In X11, seasonal index, index of seasonal adjustment and the measurement of seasonal adjustment index for a year are produced by applying moving average many times. In X11 ARIMA raw series is expanded to the ARIMA model and applied it to X11. This study tries t o compare the differences of standard models between X11-ARIMA and X11 on the time series of our economy such as industrial production index, shipment, whole sale and consumer received index. The conclusion is that the application of X11-ARIMA is more suitable than that of X11. X11 is, however, more suitable in manufacturing, shipment index, unemployment rate. There is little difference between them in the productive index and whole sale and consumer received index. The X11 ARIMA which is now used in Canada was provided by the Bureau of Statistics of Canda so that it was fit for the economic situation of the country. Therfore, to use it efficiently in our country we should review the characteristics of the time series in our country and set up a proper critia on the basis of the review.
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