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용존산소 농도 모의시 VARMA(상태공간) 모형과 승법ARIMA모형의 특성비교
李雄洙,尹海賢 충주대학교 산업대학원 2001 大學院論文輯 Vol.2 No.-
The purpose of this research is to develop the stochastic water quality model for the intaking station of Chung-Ju city waterworks in the Han river water system. The changes of water quality are simulated by the theory of Box-Jenkins Multiplicative ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, univariate time series model) and VARMA model(Vector Autoregressive Moving Average; multiple time series model). This model followed the typical procedures of the Box-Jenkins method including identification, estimation, and diagnostic check. The factors of water quality used in these models are water temperature and dissolved oxygen(DO). The models development were based on the data obtained from Jan. 1990 to Dec. 1997 and compared the prediction ability of both models from observed results in DO simulation. From the computed autocorrelation function(ACF) and partial autocorrelation function(PACF), it is determined that models should have two autoregressive(AR) parameter and one moving average(MA) parameter, and one seasonal AR parameter and one seasonal MA parameter. The seasonal fluctuation of DO and water temperature data to formulate for the Multiplicative ARIMA and VARMA model is evident and period revealed at twelve months. Both models are formulated as ARIMA(2,1,1)(1,1,1)_12 and VARMA(2,2) model for DO and water temperature. The models were validated by estimating ACF and PACF of residuals. The prediction ability of Multiplicative ARIMA and VARMA model are tested using the data collected from Jan. 1988 to Oct. 1999. There are good agreement between the model predictions and the field measurements. From the comparison of both models in DO simulation, the result reveal that VARMA model lead to improved accuracy.
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Natural occurrence of fumonisin B_1 and B_2 in Korean corn kernels
Lee, Ung Soo,Chung, Duck Hwa,Yun, Hae Hyun 충주대학교 산업대학원 1999 大學院論文輯 Vol.1 No.-
The natural occurrence of fumonisin B_1(FB_1) and B_2(FB_2), a promoter for hepatocarcinogenesis, was investigated is Korean corn kernels for feed and seeding harvested in 1997 by HPLC with fluorescence detection. From the 36 corn kernel samples, FB_1 was detected in 20 samples at levels ranging from 67 to 1410 ng/g, while FB_1 was found in 15 samples from 75 to 1595 ng/g. In the positive samples,the average concentrations of FB_1 and FB_2 were 481 and 519 ng/g,respectively. One sample(NO, KC5) showed the highest FB_1 and FB_2 contents as 1410 and 1595 ng/g, respectively. The data reported here indicates that Korean corn kernels harvested in 1997 are simultaneously contaminated with FB_1 and FB_2. The incidences of these mycotoxins are slightly increased,and levels of FB_1 are similar to those observed in the corn kernels harvested in 1992 but levels of FB_2 are increased approximately 2 times.
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