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A Probabilistic Framework for Mapping Hazards of Coseimic Landslides
( Mingdong Zang ),( Shengwen Qi ) 대한지질공학회 2019 대한지질공학회 학술발표회논문집 Vol.2019 No.2
Coseismic landslides have been responsible for destroyed buildings and tens of thousands of deaths. Recent years, coseismic landslides occur frequently, and researches on coseismic landslides have become a global hot spot. Occurrences of earthquakes are random and difficult to predict accurately. Therefore, before an earthquake occurred, predicting the spatial distribution of coseismic landslides is one of key scientific issues needing to be solved in earthquake preventions. We have collected all of the data sets needed to conduct a regional probabilistic hazard analysis of coseismic slope instability, including: (1) 1:500000-scale geological map of the region, (2) extensive data on engineering properties of the geological units from geological surveying and field investigation, (3) historical seismic data of PGA from 1900 to 2018, and (4) high-resolution digital elevation models of the topography from ASTER. All of these data sets are digitized and rasterized at 30m grid spacing using ArcGIS and combined in a dynamic slope model based on Newmark permanent-deformation analysis modified by Barton model. The coseismic landslide displacements are estimated in each grid cell from a probabilistic framework through calculating a seismic hazard level of 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, and the coseismic landslide hazard map is then generated based on the classification of the coseismic landslide displacement. The map can be applied to predict the hazard zone of the region and provide a reference for making decisions regarding infrastructure development and pre-earthquake construction.
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