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On the Interval Estimation of the Difference between Independent Proportions with Rare Events
im, Yongdai,Choi, Daewoo The Korean Statistical Society 2000 Communications for statistical applications and me Vol.7 No.2
When we construct an interval estimate of two independent proportions with rare events, the standard approach based on the normal approximation behaves badly in many cases. The problem becomes more severe when no success observations are observed on both groups. In this paper, we compare two alternative methods of constructing a confidence interval of the difference of two independent proportions by use of simulation. One is based on the profile likelihood and the other is the Bayesian probability interval. It is shown in this paper that the Bayesian interval estimator is easy to be implemented and performs almost identical to the best frequentist's method -the profile likelihood approach.
Posterior Consistency of Bayesian Inference of Poisson Processes
Kim, Yongdai The Korean Statistical Society 2002 Communications for statistical applications and me Vol.9 No.3
Poisson processes are widely used in reliability and survival analysis. In particular, multiple event time data in survival analysis are routinely analyzed by use of Poisson processes. In this paper, we consider large sample properties of nonparametric Bayesian models for Poisson processes. We prove that the posterior distribution of the cumulative intensity function of Poisson processes is consistent under regularity conditions on priors which are Levy processes.
Semiparametric Bayesian Regression Model for Multiple Event Time Data
Kim, Yongdai The Korean Statistical Society 2002 Journal of the Korean Statistical Society Vol.31 No.4
This paper is concerned with semiparametric Bayesian analysis of the proportional intensity regression model of the Poisson process for multiple event time data. A nonparametric prior distribution is put on the baseline cumulative intensity function and a usual parametric prior distribution is given to the regression parameter. Also we allow heterogeneity among the intensity processes in different subjects by using unobserved random frailty components. Gibbs sampling approach with the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is used to explore the posterior distributions. Finally, the results are applied to a real data set.
Mixtures of Beta Processes Priors for Right Censored Survival Data
Kim, Yongdai The Korean Statistical Society 2001 Journal of the Korean Statistical Society Vol.30 No.1
In order to combine parametric and nonparametric approaches together for survival analysis with censored observations, a new class of priors called mixtures of the beta processes is introduced. It is shown that mixtures of beta processes priors generalized the well known priors - mixtures of Dirichlet processes, and they are conjugate with right censored observations. Formulas for computing the posterior distribution are derived. Finally, a real data set is analyzed for illustrational purpose.
Leave-one-out Bayesian model averaging for probabilistic ensemble forecasting
Kim, Yongdai,Kim, Woosung,Ohn, Ilsang,Kim, Young-Oh The Korean Statistical Society 2017 Communications for statistical applications and me Vol.24 No.1
Over the last few decades, ensemble forecasts based on global climate models have become an important part of climate forecast due to the ability to reduce uncertainty in prediction. Moreover in ensemble forecast, assessing the prediction uncertainty is as important as estimating the optimal weights, and this is achieved through a probabilistic forecast which is based on the predictive distribution of future climate. The Bayesian model averaging has received much attention as a tool of probabilistic forecasting due to its simplicity and superior prediction. In this paper, we propose a new Bayesian model averaging method for probabilistic ensemble forecasting. The proposed method combines a deterministic ensemble forecast based on a multivariate regression approach with Bayesian model averaging. We demonstrate that the proposed method is better in prediction than the standard Bayesian model averaging approach by analyzing monthly average precipitations and temperatures for ten cities in Korea.
Learning fair prediction models with an imputed sensitive variable: Empirical studies
Kim, Yongdai,Jeong, Hwichang The Korean Statistical Society 2022 Communications for statistical applications and me Vol.29 No.2
As AI has a wide range of influence on human social life, issues of transparency and ethics of AI are emerging. In particular, it is widely known that due to the existence of historical bias in data against ethics or regulatory frameworks for fairness, trained AI models based on such biased data could also impose bias or unfairness against a certain sensitive group (e.g., non-white, women). Demographic disparities due to AI, which refer to socially unacceptable bias that an AI model favors certain groups (e.g., white, men) over other groups (e.g., black, women), have been observed frequently in many applications of AI and many studies have been done recently to develop AI algorithms which remove or alleviate such demographic disparities in trained AI models. In this paper, we consider a problem of using the information in the sensitive variable for fair prediction when using the sensitive variable as a part of input variables is prohibitive by laws or regulations to avoid unfairness. As a way of reflecting the information in the sensitive variable to prediction, we consider a two-stage procedure. First, the sensitive variable is fully included in the learning phase to have a prediction model depending on the sensitive variable, and then an imputed sensitive variable is used in the prediction phase. The aim of this paper is to evaluate this procedure by analyzing several benchmark datasets. We illustrate that using an imputed sensitive variable is helpful to improve prediction accuracies without hampering the degree of fairness much.