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미국의 동아시아 안보전략에 대한 중국의 평가와 군사전략 변화
김성한,김흥규 (사) 한국전략문제연구소 2007 전략연구 Vol.- No.39
The Pentagon's 2005 Annual Report to Congress set off an alarm that Chinese military capability is a threat not just to the Taiwan Strait but to the East Asian region including the United States. This was seen as the meaningful message about China that came out for the first time since President Bush took office in 2001. The Bush administration, that is facing a dual task of cooperation and competition with China, is expected to continue economic and anti-terror cooperation with China. At the same time, the United States will gear up to "constrain" China from the left, i.e., expanded basing strategy in Central Asia, from the right, i.e., stronger alliance relations with Kore and Japan, and from below, i.e., consolidated cooperation with Vietnam and India. Against this backdrop, China believes that the United States is aiming at "aggressive" strategy vis-a-vis China. China's Defense White Papers in 2004 and 2006 see the macro security environment in the Asia Pacific rather stable. Nevertheless, China's position is that the United States has strengthened its rapid military intervention will and capability through the redeployment of U.S. forces in the region. In this light, the Chinese military strategy reflects its reponses to changing international environment, China's military capability and technological conditions, and domestic political factors. China's traditional "people's war strategy" has transformed itself to the "limited war strategy" while going through three stages of transition in the reform and opening periods. The idea of "military innovation" has permeated every phase of change in military strategy. Despite the Chinese position that its military strategy is simply defense-oriented, it is hard to deny that its strategic scope is crossing the coastal sea, thereby showing the "regional" characteristics. 미 국방부의 ‘2005년 중국 군사력 평가 보고서’(Annual Report to Congress: The Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2005)는 “중국의 군사력은 대만해협뿐만 아니라 동아시아, 나아가 미국에대한 위협이다”라고 규정했다. 부시 행정부 출범 이후 처음으로 중국의 위협이 양안관계에 국한되는 것이 아니라 동아태 지역적차원의 위협임을 강조한것이다. 대 중국 ‘협력’과 ‘경쟁’이라는 양면적 과제에 직면해 있는 미 부시행정부는 중국과의 경제 및 반테러 협력을 지속해 나가면서도 장기적 전략이해의 충돌 가능성을 염두에 두고 중국을 좌(중앙아시아 미군 주둔 확대), 우(미일동맹 강화, 한미동맹 재조정), 아래(베트남․인도와의 협력 강화, 동남아 테러대응체제 확립)로부터 견제해 나갈 것으로 보인다. 중국은 이에 대해 미국이 중국을 겨냥한 공세적인 전략을 지향하고 있다고 평가한다. 아태지역의 기본 안보환경이 비교적 안정되어 있다는 2004년과 2006년 중국 국방백서의 공식적인 표명에도 불구하고, 미군의 재배치로인해 일단 유사시 아태지역에서 신속한 군사개입능력과 개입의지는 더욱 강화되었다는 것이 중국측의 입장이다. 이러한 가운데 중국 군사전략의 큰 흐름은 국내정치적 변화를 반영하면서, 새로운 국제정세 변화에 대한 대응, 현실적인 중국의 군사 역량 및 군사·기술적 조건 등에 대한 복합적인 고려를내포하고 있다. 마오쩌둥(毛澤東)시절 이래 중국의 주 군사전략이었던 “인민전쟁전략”은 개혁·개방 시기에 “국지전쟁 전략”을 중심으로 세 차례의 변화과정을 겪었고 그 과정에서 ‘군사혁신’ 사상의 영향을 강하게 받고 있다. 그러나 중국의 군사전략이 방어적이라는 중국측의 주장에도 불구하고 전략상의범위가 근해지역을 넘어서는 지역적 성격을 드러내고 있다.
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윤영덕 韓國外國語大學校 外國學綜合硏究센터 中國硏究所 2004 中國硏究 Vol.33 No.-
During the ASEAH+1(China) summit conference taken place during the seventh ASEAN+3(Korea, China, Japan) summit conference held at Bali, Indonesia in October 2003, China and ASEAN announced joint declaration that elevated the mutual relationship from Good-Neighborly and Friendly Relations to Strategic Partnership for Peace and Prosperity. The Chinas State Council Premier Wen Jiabao who participated in the conference also formally signed Declaration of ASEAN Concord. Prior to the event, during the summit conference held in 2002, China and ASEAN have had concluded Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation between ASEAN and the Peoples Republic of China which called for the creation of Sino-ASEAN Free Trade Area before the year 2010. Thus, following the joint declaratione'and signing of the Concord China laid the ground to strengthen the bond with ASEAN in economic realms, as well as political and security issues. In light of the recent rapid progress in discussions for reinforcing East-Asian regional cooperation so as to respond actively and effectively to changing international political-economic environment in the Post Cold-War era, the strengthening of relationship between ASEAN and China, whose position in international arena is rising, presents far-fetching implications. In particular, some of the important trends that deserves attention include the fact that ASEAN, which is consisted of minor powers, is the one most actively suggesting initiatives to promote East Asian regional cooperation, and the that China, which has previously been passive in participating multilateral cooperative organizations, is actively responding to the ASEANs initiative to seize commanding height in the process of promoting regional cooperation. This paper tries to examine the background behind rapid strengthening of relations between China and ASEAN, in particular, focusing on recently made major declarations and treaties, and explores to address the potential impact of accelerating development of Sino-ASEAN relations on East-Asian regional cooperation. This paper anticipates that in light of recent trends and Chinas and ASEANs perception of international political-economic environment in post Cold-War era, Sino-ASEAH relations not only entered full-scale cooperative relationship but also such trend will be sustained for considerable periods to come by. In addition, development of Sino-ASEAN relationship centered on creation of the Free Trade Area will play positive role in promoting East-Asian regional cooperation and integration which so far has shown little progress.
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