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- 저자 : Nazmus Sadat Khan (검색결과 2 건)
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Spillover Effects of Trade Shocks in the Central and Eastern European and Baltic Countries
Nazmus Sadat Khan 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 2020 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.35 No.1
How does a trade shock occurring in each Central and Eastern European and Baltic country affect the economic growth and inflation of other CEE-Baltic countries? This paper addresses this question by comparing the spillover effects of trade shocks using a global vector auto-regression model with 10 CEE-Baltic countries. In constructing the foreign variables, a time-varying trade weight is used instead of a fixed weight. Oil price is included as a global variable because of its importance to the countries in the region. The results demonstrate that the trade spillover effects are strong in the region and have a positive impact on economic growth and inflation in the region. However, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Poland play a greater role in this transmission process than the other countries.
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Global Macroeconomic Repercussions of US Trade Restrictions: Evidence from a GVAR Model
Bernd Kempa,Nazmus Sadat Khan 한국국제경제학회 2019 International Economic Journal Vol.33 No.4
We employ a global vector autoregression (GVAR) model to analyze international spillover effects of US trade restrictions, modeled as a reduction of US imports. Our sample consists of the US and 25 countries in the rest of the world, grouped into larger regions comprising European nations, non-European industrial countries and emerging economies. We find US trade restrictions to reduce trade volumes and income levels in the rest of the world as well as in the US. The trade balance deteriorates across all world regions except in the US, where it is unaffected by the trade restrictions. We also model the effects of a trade war in which the rest of the world responds in equal measure to the trade restrictions imposed by the US. We again find that export and import activity recedes both in the US and in the rest of the world, although the resulting effects are now strongest in the short run. The trade balance improves in the rest of the world but deteriorates in the US. In terms of the GDP response, the rest of the world is initially much harder hit by the imposition of the retaliatory trade measure than is the US.
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