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RISS 인기검색어
- 검색키워드
- 저자 : Michael M. Hutchison (검색결과 2 건)
- 무료
- 기관 내 무료
- 유료
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The Global Pandemic, Policy Space and Fiscal Rules to Achieve Stronger Stabilization Policies
Michael M. Hutchison 서울대학교 경제연구소 2020 Seoul journal of economics Vol.33 No.3
The world economy was slowing prior to the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. The slowdown began after a record-long period of expansion marked with record lows in unemployment and strong economic indicators along most dimensions. Even at a high point of the business cycle, however, “depression style” economic policies of very low or zero policy interest rates and large budget deficits were being followed in many countries—partly due to the lingering effects of the Great Recession and partly due the longstanding problem of “deficit bias” in fiscal policy. Fiscal responses to the Covid-19 shock in the form of wage support, business loans and other programs in 2020 were substantial and necessary but, following already large fiscal deficits and growing government debt, have aggravated the problem of long-term fiscal solvency. In some cases, concerns over record peacetime budget deficits constrained government’s willingness to pursue further rounds of fiscal stimulus as the Covid-19 crisis deepened. This article argues that deficit bias constrained discretionary fiscal policy actions arises from political economy factors and demonstrates that fiscal rules are an important instrument to mitigate deficit bias and restore countries to longer-term solvency. Countries with strong fiscal rules had much better fiscal and debt positions prior to the Great Financial Crisis, allowing them in turn to pursue much more stimulative fiscal policies in response to the crisis. The same situation faced policy makers at the onset of the pandemic economic crisis-- those with strong fiscal rules were in a much better position to provide large fiscal responses to support the economy without endangering national debt solvency. Facilitating long-term fiscal solvency and allowing for larger discretionary fiscal actions in crisis situations provides a strong argument for the strengthening and enforcement of fiscal rules around the world.
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Expansionary Fiscal Contractions: Re-evaluating the Danish Case
U. Michael Bergman,Michael M. Hutchison 한국국제경제학회 2010 International Economic Journal Vol.24 No.1
The Expansionary Fiscal Contraction (EFC) hypothesis predicts that a major fiscal consolidation leads to an economic expansion under certain circumstances. We test this hypothesis, and the implied non-linear responses of the economy to large and small changes in fiscal policy, using data from the 1983 Danish fiscal reform. We use a structural VAR/event study methodology following Blanchard and Perotti (2002) that explicitly allows us to distinguish between normally marginal changes in fiscal policy and comprehensive fiscal reforms. We find that 'marginal changes' in fiscal policy (expenditure and tax changes) have the expected Keynesian effects on output and consumption. However, we find no evidence that the large fiscal consolidation in Denmark slowed the economy after controlling for a host of exogenous shocks and business cycle effects. Rather, we find some support for the hypothesis that the exogenous fiscal contraction in Denmark was a credible regime shift and, together with other reforms undertaken at the time, increased both private consumption and aggregate output.
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