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에너지시스템 분석 모형을 활용한 건물부문 에너지수요 전망 연구
정영선(Jeong, Young-Sun),조철홍(Cho, Cheolhung) 한국건축친환경설비학회 2016 한국건축친환경설비학회 논문집 Vol.10 No.5
The demand side management is currently ever more emphasized with a rapid increase of energy consumption and energy-related environmental concerns such as air pollution and climate change. The Republic of Korea, which imports about 97% of its energy resources from overseas, has experienced a growing energy consumption in the past decades mainly coupled with economic growth and its trend seems unlikely to change a lot in a near future. Among other sectors, energy use in building sector increased from 22.0 million TOE in 1990 to 37.9 million TOE in 2012 at the annual rate of 2.5%. The purpose of this paper is to forecast the long-term energy demand for domestic building sector. We broke down the energy consumption by 5(residential) or 6(commercial) specific end-uses and forecast their future demands in the framework of MESSAGE, an energy system model. According to the analysis, The expected energy use for residential sector is 25.4 million TOE and that for commercial sector is 28.3 million TOE in 2035. By 2035, electricity accounts for 57% of total building sector enegy consumption and city gas accounts for 35%. For the specific end-use, space heating and hot water accounts for 40% of building energy use in 2035.
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