http://chineseinput.net/에서 pinyin(병음)방식으로 중국어를 변환할 수 있습니다.
변환된 중국어를 복사하여 사용하시면 됩니다.
- 中文 을 입력하시려면 zhongwen을 입력하시고 space를누르시면됩니다.
- 北京 을 입력하시려면 beijing을 입력하시고 space를 누르시면 됩니다.
RISS 인기검색어
- 검색키워드
- 저자 : 조만석(Manseok Jo) (검색결과 2 건)
- 무료
- 기관 내 무료
- 유료
-
혼합 MDCEV 모형을 이용한 발전사업자의 최적 재생에너지 포트폴리오 구성에 관한 연구
조만석(Manseok Jo),허성윤(Sung-Yoon Huh),이용길(Yong-Gil Lee) 에너지경제연구원 2016 에너지경제연구 Vol.15 No.2
신재생에너지는 기후 변화에 대응하는 대체 에너지원으로서 뿐만 아니라 에너지 안보를 확충하고 친환경 산업을 선도하는 성장 동력으로서 그 중요성이 부각되고 있다. 특히 다양한 신재생 에너지원이 존재하고, 각각의 기술적, 경제적 특성이 다르다는 사실을 고려할 때, 저탄소 녹색성장 정책에 따라 적정 신재생에너지 원별 포트폴리오를 마련하고 이에 따른 대응전략을 마련하는 연구가 필요하다. 본 연구는 향후 어떤 재생에너지원을 개발하여 각각으로부터 얼마나 많은 양의 발전을 하는 것이 각 발전사업자에게 유리한지 다중 이산-연속 모형 중 하나인 MDCEV(Multiple Discrete-Continuous Extreme Value) 모형을 사용하여 정량적으로 분석하였다. 분석 결과 풍력발전이 현재로서는 최적의 재생에너지원인 것으로 나타났으나, 의무할당제도의 시행이 태양광발전에 긍정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되어 향후 태양광발전 확대가 유리해 질 수 있음을 확인하였다. 또한 본 연구에서는 재생에너지 기술개발로 인한 발전단가 하락 및 설치비용 하락 등 외부적 환경이 변화하였을 때를 대비한 재생에너지 포트폴리오 구성에 대해서도 고려하였으며, 태양광발전의 발전단가가 풍력보다 1.5배 정도로 높아도 기술투자만 풍력발전보다 20% 이상 이루어진다면 우리나라 발전사업자들에게 태양광발전이 풍력발전보다 유리해질 수 있음을 분석하였다. 본 연구는 발전부문 재생에너지 포트폴리오 구성에 대해 정량적인 분석을 수행하고 발전사업자들에 특화된 결과를 제시한 선제적인 연구로서 향후 발전사업자들이 재생에너지 포트폴리오를 구성할 때 정량적 근거로서 활용할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. New and renewable energy is getting more and more important because of not only its role to prevent climate change, but also its significance for energy security and green industry. There are various sources for new and renewable energy with different technological and economic features. In consideration of these different features, it is necessary to construct desirable and optimal portfolio of diverse renewable energy sources. The authors explore the quantitative solution of renewable energy portfolio in use of MDCEV (Multiple Discrete-Continuous Extreme Value) model. The result shows that wind power is optimal source for Korean power producers, but the presence of Renewable Portfolio Standard works to advantage of solar power over other sources. Furthermore, it is found that solar power can become the first choice of Korean power producers if the unit production cost of solar power decreased to 1.5 times that of wind power and the technology investment of solar power increased to 1.2 times that of wind power. This study has its significance as a pioneering work of quantitative approach for optimal new and renewable portfolio, and is expected to be utilized by electric power producers.
-
정기철(Gicheol Jeong),김승현(SeungHyun Kim),조만석(Manseok Jo),이기헌(Keeheon Lee),김가은(Gaeun Kim) 과학기술정책연구원 2016 정책연구 Vol.- No.-
This study suggests a methodology that analyzes the effects of policy tools designed to support the expansion of innovative products/services by incorporating both purchase and diffusion stages. The study conducted an empirical analysis on direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic test to verify the usefulness of the suggested methodology. First, the study conducted a survey on DTC genetic test services in order to obtain data required for analysis. As a result, we found that consumers are interested in health management practices that can predict or pre-diagnose a genetic disorder and give timely treatments, and are willing to try new medical technologies. Furthermore, we found that consumers are sharing information on their health status with others and making a considerable impact on the decision-making process of others. Analysis of the purchase stage begins with consumers’ preference analysis about factors that they value when using DTC genetic test services. The study established test price, number of testable items, test accuracy, and possibility of private information leakage as determinants of consumers’ purchase, and selection data were estimated based on discrete choice model. As a result, the study found that, all other things being equal, consumers prefer tests that are relatively cheap, more testable items, offer accurate results, and involve a lower risk of the possibility of leaking private information. Next, the present status as well as possible future policy options was reflected in developing virtual policy scenarios for analyzing each policy scenario. With Scenario 0 as the base and representing the current conditions, the study drew up other scenarios by reflecting on multiple policy options that could be pursued in the future. Policy measures that could be used to expand DTC genetic test services were grouped into four categories: price reduction via insurance coverage (change in price attribute), increase in testable items (change in testable item attribute), tougher regulation on test agencies’ service quality (change in test accuracy attribute), and greater protection of information (change in possibility of leaking private information attribute). Four different policy tools were applied from Scenario 1 to 4, whereas Scenarios 5 to 10 implemented two of the four policy tools combined. Based on this, the study investigated the diffusion of DTC genetic test service according to each policy scenario by using two different agent-based models (ABMs). To reflect the static structure of consumer preference, which was analyzed in the purchase stage, in the dynamic ABM, assumptions should be established regarding the reflection of consumer preference structure and the composition of networks. Since ABMs in various forms can be applied according to such assumptions, this study adopted two different ABMs. Analysis of the diffusion path of each policy scenario generated common results, regardless of the ABMs. Cumulative rates of adopting DTC genetic test services in Scenario 5 to 10, where two policy tools are applied, is higher than those in Scenario 1 to 4, where only a single policy tool is applied. In particular, Scenario 5, where policies for quality enhancement of test agencies and health insurance coverage are implemented simultaneously, presented the highest cumulative adoption rate and the fastest expansion route than in other scenarios. This implies that the policy measures both for price reduction with a wider range of health insurance coverage and for delivery of accurate test findings based on enhanced service quality of test agencies would further accelerate expansion of DTC genetic analysis services. The study has two meanings: 1) to develop a methodology that can make an ex-ante forecast for the effects of a support policy that is adopted to facilitate market expansion of an innovative product/service; 2) to investigate the support policy measures that are currently in place f
KCI
DBpia연관 검색어 추천
이 검색어로 많이 본 자료
활용도 높은 자료
