혁신제품 확산효과의 예측모형 연구

정기철(Gicheol Jeong),김승현(SeungHyun Kim),조만석(Manseok Jo),이기헌(Keeheon Lee),김가은(Gaeun Kim) 과학기술정책연구원 2016 정책연구 Vol.- No.-

This study suggests a methodology that analyzes the effects of policy tools designed to support the expansion of innovative products/services by incorporating both purchase and diffusion stages. The study conducted an empirical analysis on direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic test to verify the usefulness of the suggested methodology. First, the study conducted a survey on DTC genetic test services in order to obtain data required for analysis. As a result, we found that consumers are interested in health management practices that can predict or pre-diagnose a genetic disorder and give timely treatments, and are willing to try new medical technologies. Furthermore, we found that consumers are sharing information on their health status with others and making a considerable impact on the decision-making process of others. Analysis of the purchase stage begins with consumers’ preference analysis about factors that they value when using DTC genetic test services. The study established test price, number of testable items, test accuracy, and possibility of private information leakage as determinants of consumers’ purchase, and selection data were estimated based on discrete choice model. As a result, the study found that, all other things being equal, consumers prefer tests that are relatively cheap, more testable items, offer accurate results, and involve a lower risk of the possibility of leaking private information. Next, the present status as well as possible future policy options was reflected in developing virtual policy scenarios for analyzing each policy scenario. With Scenario 0 as the base and representing the current conditions, the study drew up other scenarios by reflecting on multiple policy options that could be pursued in the future. Policy measures that could be used to expand DTC genetic test services were grouped into four categories: price reduction via insurance coverage (change in price attribute), increase in testable items (change in testable item attribute), tougher regulation on test agencies’ service quality (change in test accuracy attribute), and greater protection of information (change in possibility of leaking private information attribute). Four different policy tools were applied from Scenario 1 to 4, whereas Scenarios 5 to 10 implemented two of the four policy tools combined. Based on this, the study investigated the diffusion of DTC genetic test service according to each policy scenario by using two different agent-based models (ABMs). To reflect the static structure of consumer preference, which was analyzed in the purchase stage, in the dynamic ABM, assumptions should be established regarding the reflection of consumer preference structure and the composition of networks. Since ABMs in various forms can be applied according to such assumptions, this study adopted two different ABMs. Analysis of the diffusion path of each policy scenario generated common results, regardless of the ABMs. Cumulative rates of adopting DTC genetic test services in Scenario 5 to 10, where two policy tools are applied, is higher than those in Scenario 1 to 4, where only a single policy tool is applied. In particular, Scenario 5, where policies for quality enhancement of test agencies and health insurance coverage are implemented simultaneously, presented the highest cumulative adoption rate and the fastest expansion route than in other scenarios. This implies that the policy measures both for price reduction with a wider range of health insurance coverage and for delivery of accurate test findings based on enhanced service quality of test agencies would further accelerate expansion of DTC genetic analysis services. The study has two meanings: 1) to develop a methodology that can make an ex-ante forecast for the effects of a support policy that is adopted to facilitate market expansion of an innovative product/service; 2) to investigate the support policy measures that are currently in place f

수요자 중심의 헬스케어 산업 전망과 대응전략

정기철(Gicheol Jeong),김승현(SeungHyun Kim),정일영(Ilyoung Jung),이다은(Daeun Lee),김가은(Gaeun Kim) 과학기술정책연구원 2017 정책연구 Vol.- No.-

Traditionally, the healthcare sector has been healthcare-professional-centered. Doctors as experts have made all the decisions for patients, while patients’ role has remained to comply with their doctor’s decisions. However, a patient-centered healthcare paradigm is emerging thanks to technological drivers such as the convergence of healthcare technology with information and communication technology, and social drivers such as consumers’ information expansion and increased status. A variety of products and services are being developed that enable active participation of medical consumers in the areas of “diagnosis by consumers,” “monitoring by consumers” and “self-prescription,” and they belong to the consumer-centered healthcare industry that the present study focused on. In other words, this study defines consumer-centered healthcare as active participation of medical consumers in healthcare, including management, prevention, prediction, and treatment, to solve their health problems, and the consumer-centered healthcare industry as the industry sector that creates products/services that enable active participation of medical consumers in all aspects of healthcare, including management, prevention, diagnosis, prediction, and treatment. The authors of present study expect that the consumer-centered healthcare industry will be able to play a role in solving current problems or risk factors in the healthcare sector faced by South Korea, as it helps individuals to solve their health problems more actively. Therefore, the authors examined the current situation of the consumer-centered healthcare industry in South Korea, and deliberated on the preparations and strategies needed to develop the consumer-centered healthcare industry to play a desirable role in the future. The present study is divided into four chapters. Chapter 1 explains the background, purpose, and main contents of the study. The definition of consumer-centered healthcare industry used in the study is also provided. Chapter 2 analyzes the current status of the consumer-centered healthcare industry. The authors analyzed the current situation in the US as a global leading case and compared it with the current status in Korea to identify the differences between the two countries. Since the consumer-centered healthcare industry is still in its infancy, the authors identified consumer-centered products/services available to date and classified them to examine the current status of the consumer-centered healthcare industry. The classification of consumer-centered products/services started with their definition according to preventive medicine categories, such as primary, secondary, and tertiary prevention, focused on functions providing consumers with utility or value, and finished with a categorization into three areas: monitoring/management, diagnosis/prediction, and treatment. Chapter 3 examines the determinants of future changes in the consumer-centered healthcare industry. The authors investigated technical factors related to the characteristics of products/services, institutional factors related to the healthcare delivery system, and organizational factors related to medical consumers and healthcare providers. In addition. the authors investigated consumers’ current and future use of consumer-centered healthcare products/services using a consumer survey. Chapter 4 explores the future outlook of the consumer-centered healthcare industry in South Korea through a scenario analysis and suggests strategies for the development of the consumer-centered healthcare industry. This chapter discusses what aspects of technical, institutional, and organizational factors need to change to prepare for the desired future.

Public preferences for functions and features influencing the adoption of mobile health devices based on best-worst scaling

Jeong Gicheol(정기철) 과학기술정책연구원 2021 과학기술정책 Vol.4 No.1

바이오경제시대 과학기술정책의제 연구사업(8차년도) - 제3권: 인공지능기술의 의료활용 현황과 시사점 -

김승현(SeungHyun Kim),정기철(Gicheol Jeong),김가은(Gaeun Kim) 과학기술정책연구원 2019 정책연구 Vol.- No.-

Artificial intelligence technology, one of the technologies that are the subject of the fourth industrial revolution, is considered to be one of the eight most attractive technologies for employers in the medical field. The global market size of artificial intelligence is expected to grow tremendously, suggesting that artificial intelligence itself has the potential to create a market, as it has power in many fields. Predictability and accuracy of artificial intelligence-based methods are improving as data accumulate. In the medical field, there is a positive attitude toward medical services using artificial intelligence technology. Medical institutions are accumulating various information such as medical records, prescription records, and image datasets, which are expected to create value for the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of diseases. Overseas, the medical field applies this to the development of new drugs, image processing, and diagnosis by combining detailed artificial intelligence technology (deep learning, natural language processing, machine learning, etc.). In this study, we attempt to derive policy implications by analyzing the cases of domestic and foreign companies and policies in artificial intelligence. This is important for the expansion of the medical industry, the satisfaction of medical service users, and the improvement of national competitiveness. The contents of this research are as follows. Chapter 1 explains the background and purpose of the study, the outline of the study and its composition. Chapter 2 outlines artificial intelligence and explains areas of medical applications. This study introduces the technology outline of artificial intelligence and its application to the medical field and summarizes the areas where artificial intelligence is used in the medical field through various literature studies. In Chapter 3, trends in technology and company practices in artificial intelligence in Korea and abroad are investigated. The current status of product development and services in five areas is compared (new drug development, precision medical and surgical, assistance, process efficiency, imaging and diagnosis, and individual applications). Overseas, companies are mainly based in the United States, and recently, many products and services are being developed in China. Korea is mainly engaged in R&D in the field of assistance, image processing, and diagnosis. In Chapter 4, we surveyed the attitude of Korean consumers towards the use of artificial intelligence in the medical field. The questionnaire included questions about the awareness of artificial intelligence technology being used in the medical field, future intentions, preferences, expectations, and concerns. Chapter 5 summarizes the state of the healthcare industry based on artificial intelligence and policy issues. In the case of policy issues, we investigated the current status of support policies in the United States, Japan, China, and Korea. On this basis, policy implications were derived in Chapter 6.

바이오경제시대 과학기술정책의제 연구사업(8차년도) - 제1권: 유전체 분석 분야의 현황과 발전방안 -

정일영(Ilyoung Jung),정기철(Gicheol Jeong),김가은(Gaeun Kim),김지연(Jiyeon Kim),이유현(Youhyun Lee) 과학기술정책연구원 2019 정책연구 Vol.- No.-

창업의사 · 창업시기 결정요인 분석

이윤준(Yoon-Jun Lee),정기철(Gicheol Jeong) 한국경영학회 2015 한국경영학회 통합학술발표논문집 Vol.2015 No.08

창의적인 아이디어에 기초한 창업의 활성화가 창조경제의 동력으로 인식되면서 대학 및 대학원생의 창업에 대한 정책적, 사회적 관심이 높아지고 있다. 본 연구는 이러한 배경하에서 대학(원)생의 창업의사 및 창업시기 결정요인에 대한 실증 분석을 하고자 하였으며, 창업의사와 창업시기에 대한 선택을 계층형 구조로 보고 이를 동시·순차적으로 분석한 것이 기존 연구와의 차별성이다. 분석 결과, 창업관련 직·간접적 경험, 창업자금, 실패에 대한 두려움이 가장 중요한 요인이며, 간접적 습득을 위해서는 실질적인 창업교육이 중요함을 알 수 있었다. 또한, 많은 대학(원)생들은 우선은 취업하여 보다 많은 경험을 쌓은 후에 창업하고자 하는 경향이 높음을 알 수 있었다. 따라서, 취업 연계 창업지원프로그램, 직장인을 위한 창업교육, 사내창업지원제도 활성화 등을 위한 정책지원이 필요하다. As the activation of startup based on the creative ideas is perceived as the engine of the creative economy, the political and social interests in campus CEO become increasing. Under these backgrounds, determinants of entrepreneurial intention and startup time will be analyzed in this study. Choices in entrepreneurial intention and startup time are regarded as the hierarchical structure and analyzed simultaneously, which is the distinction from previous studies. The analytic results tell us that direct and indirect experience for startup, funding, fear for failure and the entrepreneurial education are main factors. In addition, most of undergraduate and graduate students prefer the startup after getting a job to the startup right after graduation. Consequently, policies like as support programs for startup linked with employment, entrepreneurial education for the employees and the corporate venturing.

R&D 성과평가 정보 활용 실태 및 활성화 방안

유나리(Nari Yoo),정기철(Gicheol Jeong),최이중(Iejung Choi),한승희(Seunghui Han),배현근(Hyunkeun Bae),안수용(Suyong An),조용희(Yonghee Cho) 과학기술정책연구원 2022 정책연구 Vol.- No.-

지능정보기술이 과학연구 작업에 미치는 영향

서지영(Jiyoung Suh),박기범(Kibeom Park),정기철(Gicheol Jeong),박성원(Seongwon Park),홍성주(Sung Joo Hong),박진희(Jinhee Park),김선지(Seonji Kim),김태경(Taekyung Kim),엄수홍(Suhong Um) 과학기술정책연구원 2017 조사연구 Vol.- No.-