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불확실한 미래에 대처하고 있는 중국 : 지역주의 경향의 견제와 국제적인 맥락에서의 그 함의
양, 달리,웨이, 후카이 한국전략문제연구소 1996 전략연구 Vol.3 No.1
As China has experienced political crisis after Tienanmen incident many scholars and specialists on Chinese matters has suggested the possibility of disintegration of China. Of these writings, many pointed to the decentralization of resources as well as obligations from central to local governments and contended that the increasing resources at the disposal of local governments were leading to what has been termed regionalism or sectionalism. For a number of these scholars, rising regionalism may well lead to the disintegration of the party state, just as had occurred in Yugoslvia and the Soviet Union. Is sectionalism rising and posing a major threat to China? To address this qustion, this essay examines three issue areas. First, China's decentralized reforms have delegated more power and resources to local authorities. As a result of local authorities pur suing local interests with great vigor under the reforms, central local relations have undrgone and still going through a bumpy adaptive process. Yet as central-local relations become more for malized through fiscal and legal reforms, we anticipate that inter governmental conflicts will be accommodated within a more stable institutional framework. Second, the gap between the coast and the interior regions has received much attention in recent years and has been a leading cause of regional cleavages. The central government has taken this issue seriously. The fiscal reforms as well as recent policy changes will not only largely remove the preferential policies various coastal localities have enjoyed but will in time provide the center with more greater resources to make transfer payments to underdeveloped areas. As a result, we believe that while the coast-interior disparities may not narrow, the major causes for interior complaints have been removed. Thirdly, we believe that recent studies of China have paid too much attention to protectionist practices, which have largely sub sided. In fact, the numerous horizontal economic linkages have sprung up in recent years, helping to bring local economies closer. As number of multinational companies are battling among them selves within china. The fierec companies have found out to their delight, if you view and treat China as a national market, it is a national market. Indeed, in an indication that not only China should not be viewed as a collection of poorly connected localities, a recent survey shows that multinational competition is bringing profit margins, clearly marking the globalization of China. A recent Gallup survey found that of the 15 best-known brands in China as of 1995, 14 were foreign, including Hitachi and Coca-Cola. Those who saw China as composed of many local warlords were either too beholden to the past and lacking in imagination or they simply lacked the deep pockets and experience to take on that market. To be sure, with a country as large as China, one is always going to find some evidence of local protectionism and parochialism (just as one does in the U.S.), but one should not mistake a few trees for the forest that is gradually covering the globe. In short, the major factors leading to disintegration are being tackled and alarmists writing on regionalism in China would do well to be more empirically grounded and not mistake healthy local interests for political regionalism. Chinese local governments are not atomistic players forever condemned to the prisoner's dilemma but neighbors that can also cooperate with each other. To be sure, ethnic minorities in Tibet and Xinjiang are well known for their political aspirations, but these are exceptions to the rule. Overall, substantial local interests can coexist with national integrity. Localities in China are like members of a family ; they intrigue and squabble, but for now at least they including Guangdong, which trades more and more with the rest of China-appear to be at least as inward-oriented as they are out ward oriented. China would disintegrate only if the center itself does. Yet the presence of domestic cleavages and pressures and the fact that the central leadership are keen aware of them are bound to have international implications, especially since Chinese leaders and policy analysts believe that some foreign hostile forces are plotting to undermine China's integrity. Within China, the Chinese authorities have skillfully used the code of patriotism and nationalism to cultivate the support of the military during a period of political transition and forcefully argued for strengthen ing the central government. To the outside, the Chinese leader ship will pursue a more aggressive posture in foreign relations, jealously defending its soverignty while seeking to attract more foreign investment. They cannot afford to look soft toward foreign critics and work hard to stand up to the powers that be in the international system in order to enhance their domestic stature. Chinese leaders who look weak domestically must appear strong on the international stage.
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