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산지폐기 및 수매비축 사업이 노지채소 가격변동성에 미친 효과 분석
안병일(Byeong il Ahn),최병옥(Byeong ok Choi),박미성(Mi Sung Park) 한국농식품정책학회 2017 농업경영정책연구 Vol.44 No.2
This study empirically analyzes the effect of disposal and stockpiling policies on the volatility of vegetable prices. Estimations of the ARMA-GARCH and ARMA-TARCH time series models that include heterogenous variances for the producer prices of Chinese cabbage, radish, garlic and onion show that the policies have reduced the price volatility of these products. According to the time series model reflecting the asymmetry of variance, the effect of the price drop on the price volatility is smaller than that of the price increase. This volatility structure can be interpreted as a result of the policies which have been conducted to prevent price collapse in the harvesting seasons.
안병일(Byeong Il Ahn),이정환(Jung Hwan Lee) 한국농업경제학회 2002 農業經濟硏究 Vol.43 No.3
This paper analyzes effects and implications of scale enlargement in rice farming. Production cost function analysis with both time series and cross section data shows that average production cost decreases as the scale of farming grows larger. The other analysis result is that not only average operation cost increases but also total farm household income increases as the scale of farming become larger. Outlook of farm household income of 2010 shows that to maintain the income of 2000, production scale must be enlarged as much as about 1ha∼5ha per a rice farming household according to rice price falling scenarios.
안병일 ( Byeong Il Ahn ) 한국축산경영학회,농업정책학회(구 한국축산경영학회) 2015 농업경영정책연구 Vol.42 No.3
Production theory tells that farmers’ acreage decision is influenced by own product price, input prices as well as policy variables that affect price or production. In case of rice, direct payment policy which is composed of fixed and variable payments is the most influential governmental support in terms of the rice farmers’income and their acreage decision. Empirical estimation of rice acreage response function which is derived from the profit maximization problem of rice farmers and includes the anticipation of rice price with naive and adaptive expectations as well as option value approach indicates that elasticity of the rice acreage with respect to own price is the largest. The input price is estimated to be the second most important factor in making the acreage decision by rice farmers. The fixed payment from government is estimated to have no significant influence on the rice acreage, which is consistent with theory. The variable payment is proven to have significant influence on the rice acreage. However, its impacts is estimated to be very small. Estimation result indicates that if variable payment is increased by 1 percent, rice acreage would be increased by only 0.001 precent.