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NOAA/MSU 자료를 이용한 태풍 중심의 위치 및 강도분석
신도식 ( Do Shick Shin ),서애숙 ( Ae Sook Suh ),김용상 ( Yong Sang Kim ),이미선 ( Mi Seon Lee ) 大韓遠隔探査學會 1995 大韓遠隔探査學會誌 Vol.11 No.2
A typhoon center location and its intensity from the 54.96GHz channel of the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) on board the NOAA satellite is analyzed. NOAA satellite MSU channel 3 data may delineate the development and dissipation of the upper tropospheric warm core associated with a typhoon. The typhoon warm core is related to microwave imagery of 250hPa temperature field (54.96GHz). The typhoon center intensity, surface center pressure and maximum wind speed at the eye wall, correlate to horizontal Laplacian of an upper tropospheric temperature field. The typhoon center is found from the analysis of 250hPa temperature field. The excellent correlation is found between the horizontal Laplacian of an tropospheric temperature field and surface maximum wind speed, another correlation is found between the warm temperature anomaly and surface pressure anomaly.
GMS-4 T(BB) 자료를 이용한 태풍의 중심 및 강도 분석
김용상 ( Yong Sang Kim ),서애숙 ( Ae Sook Suh ),신도식 ( Do Shick Shin ),김동호 ( Dong Ho Kim ) 大韓遠隔探査學會 1996 大韓遠隔探査學會誌 Vol.12 No.2
GMS 적외영상 자료와 적외 파장의 휘도온도(T(BB))자료를 이용하여 태풍의 중심 위치와 강도를 예측하는 기법을 개발하였다. 먼저 TBB의 각 온도대 별로 색을 주어 분석한 구름 패턴과 구름 밴드의 특이한 형태를 이해함으로써 태풍의 중심 위치를 결정하였다. 다음으로 태풍의 강도를 예측하기 위하여 태풍 중심주위의 T(BB)값과 태풍 중심기압(혹은 최대풍속)과의 상관관계를 구하여 보았다. 그 결과 두 변수 사이에는 일정한 시간차(24시간)를 수반하는 상관관계가 있음을 알았다. 특히 태풍 중심으로부터 300 km 이내 영역의 T(BB)의 평균값이 24시간 후의 태풍 중심기압(혹은 최대풍속)과 밀접한 관련이 있음이 밝혀졌다. 이러한 관계로부터 태풍 중심기압(혹은 최대풍속)을 예측할 수 있는 회귀식을 산출하였다. A forecast technique using GMS-4(Geostationary Meteorological Satellite) infrared images and its T(BB) (Brightness Temperature) data to determine the tropical cyclone center and to analyze the tropical cyclone intensity has been developed. First, the determination of typhoon center using T(BB) distribution pattern is practiced by understanding a special feature of central cloud pattern and cloud band which is analyzed with the method of pseudo coloring. Then, to forecast the intensity of tropical cyclone, a relationship between the central pressure (or maximum wind speed) of tropical cyclone and T(BB) measured by GMS near the tropical cyclone center was investigated. The results showed a correlation with a high lag relationship between central pressures and T(BB). The mean T(BB) in the ring of 200~300km apart from the tropical cyclone center showed the best correlation to central pressure of the tropical cyclone after 24hour. From this relationship, a regression equation to forecast the central pressure (or maximum wind speed) was derived.
임명순(Myeong Soon Lim),문일주(Il-Ju Moon),차유미(Yu-Mi Cha),장기호(Ki-Ho Chang),강기룡(Ki-Ryong Kang),변건영(Kun Young Byun),신도식(Do-Shick Shin),김지영(Ji Young Kim) 한국기상학회 2014 대기 Vol.24 No.3
In 2010, only 14 tropical cyclones (TCs) were generated over the western North Pacific (WNP), which was the smallest since 1951. This study summarizes characteristics of TCs generated in 2010 over the WNP and investigates the causes of the record-breaking TC genesis. A long-term variation of TC activity in the WNP and verification of official track forecast in 2010 are also examined. Monthly tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly data reveal that El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event in 2010 was shifted from El Nino to La Nina in June and the La Nina event was strong and continued to the end of the year. We found that these tropical environments leaded to unfavorable conditions for TC formation at main TC development area prior to May and at tropics east of 140oE during summer mostly due to low SST, weak convection, and strong vertical wind shear in those areas. The similar ENSO event (in shifting time and La Nina intensity) also occurred in 1998, which was the second smallest TC genesis year (16 TCs) since 1951. The common point of the two years suggests that the ENSO episode shifting from El Nino to strong La Nina in summer leads to extremely low TC genesis during La Nina although more samples are needed for confidence. In 2010, three TCs, DIANMU (1004), KOMPASU (1007) and MALOU (1009), influenced the Korean Peninsula (KP) in spite of low total TC genesis. These TCs were all generated at high latitude above 20°N and arrived over the KP in short time. Among them, KOMPASU (1007) brought the most serious damage to the KP due to strong wind. For 14 TCs in 2010, mean official track forecast error of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) for 48 hours was 215 km, which was the highest among other foreign agencies although the errors are generally decreasing for last 10 years, suggesting that more efforts are needed to improve the forecast skill.
차은정(Eun-Jeong Cha),이경희(Kyung-Hi Lee),박윤호(Yun-Ho Park),박종숙(Jong-Sook Park),심재관(Jae-Kwan Shim),인희진(Hee-Jin In),유희동(Hee-Dong Yoo),권혁조(Heok-Joe Kwon),신도식(Do-Shick Shin) 한국기상학회 2007 대기 Vol.17 No.3
The purpose of this study is to summarize tropical cyclone activity in 2006. Twenty three tropical cyclones of tropical storm (TS) intensity or higher formed in the western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2006. The total number is less than the thirty-year (1971∼2000) average frequency of 26.7. Out of twenty three tropical cyclones, fifteen cyclones reached typhoon (TY) intensity, while the rest eight cyclones only reached severe tropical storm (STS) and tropical storm (TS) intensity - three STS and five TS storms. The tropical cyclone season in 2006 began in May with the formation of CHANCHU (0601). The convective activity was slightly inactive around the Philippines from late June to early August. In addition, subtropical high was more enhanced than normal over the south of Japan from May to early August. Consequently, most tropical cyclones formed over the sea east of the Philippines after late June, and many of them moved westwards to China. CHANCHU (0601), BILIS (0604), KAEMI (0605), PRAPIROON (0606) and SAOMI (0608) brought damage to China, the Philippines, and Vietnam. On the other hand, EWINIAR (0603) moved northwards and hit the Republic of Korea, causing damage to the country. From late August to early September, convective activity was temporarily inactive over the sea east of the Philippines. However, it turned active again after late September. Subtropical high was weak over the south of Japan after late August. Therefore, most tropical cyclones formed over the sea east of the Philippines and moved northwards. WUKONG (0610) and SHANSHAN (0613) hit Japan to bring damage to the country. On the other hand, XANGSANE (0615) and CIMARON (0619) moved westwards in the South China Sea, causing damage to the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. Another special feature in 2006 tropical cyclone activity is that IOKE (0612) formed in the central North Pacific crossed 180 degree longitude and moved into the western North Pacific. It has been four years since HUKO (0224) in 2002.