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송용찬 ( Yong Chan Song ),김민곤 ( Min Gon Kim ) 중앙대학교 국가정책연구소 2016 국가정책연구 Vol.30 No.3
인구이동의 원인에 대한 기존 선행연구들은 주로 광역지자체 수준에서 논의되어왔으며, 경제·사회·문화적 측면의 각 개별이론들을 통해 연구되었다. 그러나 이러한 단일적 접근은 기초지 자체들 수준에서의 인구이동을 충분히 설명하지 못하며, 특히 인구이동 관련 다양한 변수들을 종합적으로 고려하지 못한다는 한계점이 존재하였다. 이에 본 연구는 수도권 내 기초 지자체들을 대상으로 인구이동에 어떠한 변수들이 영향을 미치는지를 확인하고, 특히 서울권/비서울권 두 집단별로 나누어 총 전입인구 및 총 전출인구변화에 영향을 미친 변수들을 검증하였다. 분석 결과, ‘인구 1인당 복지예산비중, 인구 1000인당 사설학원 수, 기반고용비율’이 두 집단 모두에게서 인구이동에 영향을 미치는 변수로 나타났다. 또한 ‘인구 1000인당 보육기관 수’는 서울권에만 영향을 미치고 ‘인구 1000인당 노인복지시설 수, 지역외부 통근비율, 출산장려금’은 비서울권에 영향을 미치는 변수로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 다음과 같은 함의를 가진다. 첫째, 기존 선행연구와 달리 좀 더 세분화 단위인 기초 지자체들 수준에서의 분석이 이루어졌다는 점에서 의의가 있다. 또한 인구이동은 경제·사회·문화적 단일의 이론에 의해 설명되는 것이 아니며, Tiebout(1956), Todaro(1970)등 다양한 연구의 이론들을 종합적으로 살펴볼 필요가 있음을 확인하였다. 둘째, 기초 지자체들수준에서 서울권/비서울권 각 집단의 인구이동 영향변수의 차이를 확인하였다. 이를 통해 각 지자체의 효과적인 성장정책을 위해서 정책결정자들이 각 변수를 심도 있게 고려해야할 통찰을 제공하며 더 나아가 종합적인 인구이동 정책을 개발에 단서를 제공한다. The existing previous researches on the cause of the human migration have been discussed at the level of the metropolitan government and have been studied through the separate theories in the aspect of the economy, society and culture. However, such single access cannot explain the human migration sufficiently at the aspect of the local governments, and the uppermost limit not considering the various variables related with the human migration has been shown. For this reason, the purpose of this study is to check out what variables affect the human migration in the aspect of the local governments in the Seoul Metropolitan Area(SMA), and to verify the variables that have affected the changes on the total population of moving in and moving out by dividing the region into Seoul area and non- Seoul area. According to the result of the analysis, welfare budget per one person, number of the private institutes in the portion of 1000 people, based employment rate have been found as the variables that affect the human migration in the both groups. In addition, the number of nursery institution per 1000 people has been found as the factor affected in the group of Seoul area, and the number of welfare facilities for senior citizens per 1000 people, external interregional commuting ratio, and childbirth grant have been found as the factor affected in non- Seoul area. Those results implies following meanings. At first, this study is regarded as significant that this study has been analyzed in the aspect of the local governments, more specified measurement. In addition, the fact that the human migration is not explained with the single theory of the economy, society and culture, but the necessity of reviewing various theories such as Tiebout(1956) and Todaro(1970) have been confirmed. At second, the difference of the affecting variables on the human migration in the group of Seoul area, and non- Seoul area at the level of the local governments have been confirmed. Through this, the decision maker of the policy can have the insight to consider each variable in depth for the effective growth policies of each local government and provide the clues for developing the total human migration policy by extension.
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정책결정자의 인지지도 비교를 통한 갈등 원인 분석: 구룡마을 개발갈등사례를 중심으로
천지은 ( Cheon Ji-eun ),김민곤 ( Kim Min-gon ),송용찬 ( Song Yong-chan ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2018 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.19 No.2
The purpose of this study is to draw a significant analysis by conducting a case study on the conflict case from Guryong Village development, through analyzing cognitive map with focusing on possible conflicts caused by differences in perceptive and cognitive structures of policymakers. For this study, official interviews and words from provincial governors in city of Seoul and Gangnam district were analyzed to draw a cognitive map. Furthermore, differences found in cognitive map as well as 1) target variable, 2) instrumental variable, 3) recognized causal relationship, 4) feedback loop cognition, and 5) word nuance rate (positive or negative) used by policymakers, were analyzed. According to results from the analysis, there were differences found in every factors and results from the interview performed with provincial governors in city of Seoul and Gangnam district, to study whether the analyzed results reflect actual reality, showed an identical conclusion with results from the analysis above. It implies that there actually was a difference in cognitive structure by differences in cognition on conflict of Gyrong Village development. This result reveals the fact that existing policies are unable to solve conflicts between governments caused by the difference in conception among policymakers and this leads to conclusion that institutional foundation making parties, central government, and civil society perform intervention on conflicts by enforcing more direct influential power on policymakers is required. This study has a significance in terms of that it studied potential for contributing to drawing proposal for solving conflicts by analyzing cause of conflict by utilizing cognitive map on the case study.
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