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미사일 동시 공격에 대비한 3단계 방어 전략 성공 확률 분석
민승식(Seung-sik Min),임규창(Gyuchang Lim),오경원(Kyungwon Oh) 한국해군과학기술학회 2018 Journal of the KNST Vol.1 No.1
In this paper, we analyzed the success probability of defense strategy against simultaneous missile attacks. Assuming that the missile defense system of ally ship has constructed a three-level defense system such as SM-2, RAM and goalkeeper, and the interception success rate of the unit weapon system is calculated as 70%. If the enemy attack with less than 4 missiles, the strategy of intercepting all missiles from the first stage shows the greatest survival probability. However, if the enemy attack with more than 5 missiles, the success rate is greater that several missiles are remained for interception in the second or third stages, compare that all missiles are to intercept in the first stage. In order to predict the survival probability of simultaneous missile attacks accurately, precise data analysis is required. However, the results of this paper preview that some strategies to improve the survival rate for simultaneous missile attacks.
소나체계의 OMS/MP 설정과 유사체계 운용실적 분석을 통한 RAM 목표값 설정 방안 연구
송기훈,박영만,홍순국,민승식,유재우,최충현,Song, Ki-Hoon,Park, Young-Man,Hong, Soon-Kook,Min, Seung-Sik,You, Jea Woo,Choi, Chung Hyun 한국군사과학기술학회 2015 한국군사과학기술학회지 Vol.18 No.1
In this research, items and contents of SONAR were derived from investigation of OMS/MP of previously-operated submarines and domestic and international references related to weapon system. Such items and contents were established in detail and were categorized into four separate groups after consulting system design experts and specialists in the field of SONAR's operation. Ultimately, based on wartime and peacetime scenario and operation concept of SONAR, RAM values were obtained through various methods using submarine-operating records and maintenance records for the past eleven years.
정완희(Jeong, Wan-hee),민승식(Min, Seung-sik) 국방부 군사편찬연구소 2014 군사 Vol.- No.92
This paper is about the combat power index(CPI) of two nation’s warships during Japanese invasion of Korea in 1592(so called, Imjin-Waeran broken out the year of Imjin). The calculation model of CPI was utilized by Lanchester. In order to gain the proper input data, historical records of sea battles were classified and the controversial data which contain some abnormal operations and sequential attacks were excluded. After filtering the historical records, 8 kinds of battles are selected. These are the sea battles of “Okpo, Happo, Jeokjinpo, Sacheon, Dangpo, Danghangpo, Hansando, and Angolpo”. The initial and the final numbers of ships for the 8 sea battles were applied into the Lanchester’s model. Then, the CPIs of Japanese small, middle, and large warships are deduced to 16.1, 14.0, and 7.9, respectively. This means that 1 Korean warship(so called, Panoksun) was corresponded to 16.1, 14.0, and 7.9 Japanese small, middle, and large warships, respectively. Because the CPI of Korean warship was larger than that of Japanese warships, the Korean navy could overwhelm the Japanese navy during Imjin-Waeran.
정완희(Jeong, wan-hee),민승식(Min, seung-sik) 국방부 군사편찬연구소 2014 군사 Vol.- No.91
This study is on the analysis of the physical combat strength for the sea battle of ‘Chilchunlyang’ and ‘Myunglyang’ occurred between Chosun and Japan naval forces in Jung-Yu-Jaeran(1597). We used the OODA (Observe, Orient, Decision, Act) theory and the Lancester’s law for the analysis of the physical combat power, and then figured out the accomplished battle power from original physical combat power through OODA theory. Also, we estimated the results of these two sea battles through the Lanchester’s law by applying the accomplished battle power of two naval forces to the operational circumstances. Considering the analysis of the sea battle of ‘Chilchunlyang’, the main reason for the Chosun navy’s defeat was because it did not demonstrate its combat power in an effective way. However, during the ‘Myunglyang’ sea fight, both Chosun and Japan naval forces displayed their own battle power. In this combat, the Chosun naval forces estimated to be get the victory through the analysis of Lanchester’s law. On the other hand, this analysis may offer a basis to presume the spot of the engagement for the naval battle of ‘Myunglyang’. Moreover, the Chosun navy’s overwhelming victory was estimated from the Lanchester’s law assuming that the OODA was sufficiently satisfied by the stages when the conditions were set. Considering the analysis of these two sea battles, we can draw a inference that the reason for Chosun navy’s losing the ‘Chilchunlyang’ sea fight caused by the failure of security operations. In a sense, it is expected to lay the ground work to estimate the aspect of the past battle and the result of future warfare that possibly happen by analyzing the physical combat power.