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柳炳瑞 成均館大學校 科學技術硏究所 1992 論文集 Vol.43 No.1
As economy develops, the average level of living is rasing. But the tremendous gap in income within and between sectors is a source of economic and social concern in Korea. The average gap ratio between Agricultural and Non-agricultural sector during the period of 1970∼1990 was estimated by 3.7. Thus the gap between these two sectors will increase further. Closing the gap may serve as a rationalizing objective of national economic development. The redistribution policy of income will have a useful influence on economic development and also can contribute to an increased rate of economic growth. The income redistribution policy as well farm income enhancement policy is needed for reducing the income disparity between sectors.
柳炳瑞 成均館大學校 韓國産業硏究所 1984 韓國經濟 Vol.12 No.1
Fram income includes agriculatural income and off-farm income in rural areas. The proportion of agricultural income in total farm income was 32.8percent in 1982. Average farm household income raised from agricultural source has not been enough to meet total farm household expenses. Agricultural income can meet farm household expenses by 93.0percent in 1982. The maintenance of small scale farming in Korea will cause long term problems for agricultural development. It will be impossible to increase agricultural income if the average farm size remains 1ha. Farms of such small scale will eventually limit the supply of agricultural products, and the income disparity between rural and urban areas will widen. There will be some throughts of policy alternatives for the improvement of farm income. The first alternative will be the policy to increase agricultural income through an increased production of cash crops and a modernization of agricultural market structure, including improvement of storage facilities and processing facilities, provision of rural infrastructure. The second will be the policy to increase off-farm income through the development of rural infrastructure, improvement of rural merketing services, development of a modernized credit system in rural areas, improvement of education and vocational trining in rural areas, investment for research and technical assistance, and development of rural industrial estates for rural industrialization. Under the present land law and the small farming system it is necessary to develop the source of off-farm income in rural areas to meet the deficit of household living expenses. The thrid alternateve will be the structural policy to increase the average farm size to increase agricultural income. The traditional small-scale farming method has become a bottleneck to further productivity gains. There is struong possibility to create rational enlarged farms if the employment poortunity in non-farm sector is expanded and the structural policies are implemented.
柳炳瑞 成均館大學校 科學技術硏究所 1989 論文集 Vol.40 No.2
During the period of January 1984-December 1988 the chance of increases in Korean cattle farm prices was 47 percent and that of decreases was 53 percent. While the chance of increases in beef retail prices was 47 percent and that of decreases was 53 precent. During the period when the Korean cattle farm prices increased the chance of increases in beef retail price was 75 percent and that of decreases was 25 percent. When the cattle farm prices decreased the -chance of increases in beef retail price was 22 percent and that of decreases was 78 percent. The monthly average rate of increases in cattle farm prices was 4.2 percent and that of decreases was -3.4 percent. The monthly average rate of increases in beef retail prices was 3.2 percent and that of decreases was -2.1 percent. Over long term cattle farm prices and beef retail prices did move together. During most of the latter part of the year, cattle farm prices moved out ahead of beef retail prices but narrowed again toward the very end of the year. The variability in cattle farm prices was greater relatively than at retail.
柳炳瑞 成均館大學校 科學技術硏究所 1990 論文集 Vol.41 No.1
The Korean cattle feeders are continually faced with the decision of whether to market cattles at their current weight or continue feeding them. Uncertainty about future price changes is an important factor in this decision. The study uses in general statistical decision theory to combine a priori information about the historical pattern of month-to-month price changes with information provided by a price forcasting model to develop monthly feed or sell decision criteria. These criteria specify the minimum predicted price changes required to generate positive expected returns from feeding an additional 30 days. This study demonstrates the usefulness of the Bayesian decision model to problems involving uncertainty. The decision criteria developed in this study are based on the cost structure and expected feed performance for Korean cattles. The decision rules developed here are that if the future prices were forcasted to decrease less than -5 percent, then it is more beneficial to sell cattles at their current weight and if the future prices were forcasted to change between 0 to -5 percent and above 0 percent, then it is beneficial to continue to feed them.