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RISS 인기검색어
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- 저자 : 김규랑 ( Kyu Rang Kim ) (검색결과 44 건)
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생명기후분석시스템(BioCAS)을 이용한 폭염 건강위험의 검증 - 서울시 건물규모를 중심으로 -
김규랑 ( Kyu Rang Kim ),이지선 ( Ji-sun Lee ),이채연 ( Chaeyeon Yi ),김백조 ( Baek-jo Kim ),브리타얘니케 ( Britta Janicke ),아힘홀트만 ( Achim Holtmann ),디터쉐러 ( Dieter Scherer ) 한국환경영향평가학회 2016 환경영향평가 Vol.25 No.6
생명기후분석시스템(BioCAS)을 이용하여 서울시 전역의 폭염사례일 기온, 인지온도(PT), 초과사망률(rEM) 분포를 분석하였다. 분석 해상도는 25m 였으며, 사례일은 2012년 8월 5일이었다. 분석 결과는 관측된 사망률 및 내원환자수 자료와의 비교를 통해 평가되었다. 2004년에서 2013년의 폭염 원인인 사망률 자료와 2006년에서 2011년의 국민건강보험공단의 폭염 내원환자수 자료를 이용하여 행정구별 폭염 건강위험 자료를 추출하였다. 자료 비교를 위한 공간 해상도는 사망률 및 내원환자수 자료의 해상도인 행정구 단위였다. BioCAS에서 분석된 사례일 최고 인지온도 및 초과사망률 분포 자료는 행정구별 공간 평균, 최대, 최소 및 누적값으로 변환된 후 건강피해자료와 상관분석이 수행되었다. 분석 결과 일 최고 인지온도 및 초과사망률의 공간 평균값은 건강피해를 설명하지 못하는 것으로 나타났다. 대신 일 최고 인지온도의 공간 최솟값은 사망률과, 공간 최댓값은 내원환자수와 상관관계가 있는 것으로 나타났다(각각 r=0.53, r=0.42). 즉, 밀집된 건물에 의해 생겨나는 공간 최댓값은 낮 동안의 일사병 발생과 내원환자수 증가에 영향을 주었고, 식생에 의해 나타나는 공간 최솟값은 밤 동안의 열 스트레스를 감소시켜 사망률에 영향을 주었던 것으로 판단된다. 한편 분석된 초과사망률(rEM)은 공간 최댓값과 내원환자수가 상관관계가 있었지만(r=0.52) 사망률과의 상관관계는 인정되지 않았는데, 이것은 연령별 인구구성 차이에 따른 기저 폭염위험도 차이 등 행정구별 불균일성을 고려하지 못한 한계가 나타난 것으로 판단된다. 개별 건물과 식생의 열적 효과는 공간 평균보다 최대, 최소 등 그 분포가 중요한 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 고해상도 분석기술은 도시의 건강영향평가를 통해 도시개발에 관한 경제성 분석에 활용이 가능할 것으로 기대된다 The Bio-Climatic impact Assessment System, BioCAS was utilized to produce analysis maps of daily maximum perceived temperature (PT<sub>max</sub>) and excess mortality (rEM) over the entire Seoul area on a heat wave event. The spatial resolution was 25 m and the Aug. 5, 2012 was the selected heat event date. The analyzed results were evaluated by comparing with observed health impact data - mortality and morbidity - during heat waves in 2004-2013 and 2006-2011, respectively. They were aggregated for 25 districts in Seoul. Spatial resolution of the comparison was equalized to district to match the lower data resolution of mortality and morbidity. Spatial maximum, minimum, average, and total of PT<sub>max</sub> and rEM were generated and correlated to the health impact data of mortality and morbidity. Correlation results show that the spatial averages of PT<sub>max</sub> and rEM were not able to explain the observed health impact. Instead, spatial minimum and maximum of PT<sub>max</sub> were correlated with mortality (r=0.53) and morbidity (r=0.42), respectively. Spatial maximum of PT<sub>max</sub>, determined by building density, affected increasing morbidity at daytime by heat-related diseases such as sunstroke, whereas spatial minimum, determined by vegetation, affected decreasing mortality at nighttime by reducing heat stress. On the other hand, spatial maximum of rEM was correlated with morbidity (r=0.52) but not with mortality. It may have been affected by the limit of district-level irregularity such as difference in base-line heat vulnerability due to the age structure of the population. Areal distribution of the heat impact by local building and vegetation, such as spatial maximum and minimum, was more important than spatial mean. Such high resolution analyses are able to produce quantitative results in health impact and can also be used for economic analyses of localized urban development.
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연구논문 : 전산유체역학모형에 근거한 미기상 바람환경 영향평가 시스템
김규랑 ( Kyu Rang Kim ),구해정 ( Hae Jung Koo ),권태헌 ( Tae Heon Kwon ),최영진 ( Young Jean Choi ) 한국환경영향평가학회 2011 환경영향평가 Vol.20 No.3
Urban environmental problem became one of major issues during its urbanization processes. Environmental impacts are assessed during recent urban planning and development. Though the environmental impact assessment considers meteorological impact as a minor component, changes in wind environment during development can largely affect the distribution pattern of air temperature, humidity, and pollutants. Impact assessment of local wind is, therefore, a major element for impact assessment prior to any other meteorological impact assessment. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models are utilized in various fields such as in wind field assessment during a construction of a new building and in post analysis of a fire event over a mountain. CFD models require specially formatted input data and produce specific output files, which can be analyzed using special programs. CFD`s huge requirement in computing power is another hurdle in practical use. In this study, a CFD model and related software processors were automated and integrated as a microscale wind environmental impact assessment system. A supercomputer system was used to reduce the running hours of the model. Input data processor ingests development plans in CAD or GIS formatted files and produces input data files for the CFD model. Output data processor produces various analytical graphs upon user requests. The system was used in assessing the impacts of a new building near an observatory on wind fields and showed the changes by the construction visually and quantitatively. The microscale wind assessment system will evolve, of course, incorporating new improvement of the models and processors. Nevertheless the framework suggested here can be utilized as a basic system for the assessment.
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김규랑 ( Kyu Rang Kim ),박기준 ( Ki Jun Park ),이혜림 ( Hye Rim Lee ),김미진 ( Mi Jin Kim ),최영진 ( Young Jean Choi ),오재원 ( Jae Won Oh ) 한국농림기상학회 2012 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.14 No.4
There are increasing number of allergic patients due to the increasing outdoor activities and allergenic pollens by local climate changes. Korea Meteorological Administration provides daily forecasts for pollen allergy warnings on the Internet. The forecast models are composed of pollen concentration models and risk grade levels. The accuracy of the models was determined in terms of risk grade. Pollen concentration models were developed using the observed data during from 2001 to 2006 and accuracy was validated against the data during from 2010 to 2011. The accuracy was different from location to location. The accuracy for most tree species was higher in April than that in May. The accuracy for weed species was higher in October than in September. Our result suggest that the models presented in this study can be used to estimate daily number and risk grade of pollens.
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이혜림 ( Hye Rim Lee ),김규랑 ( Kyu Rang Kim ),최영진 ( Young Jeanchoi ),오재원 ( Jae Won Oh ) 한국농림기상학회 2012 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.14 No.3
There has been increasing number of patients with asthma, rhinitis, and conjunctivitis due to the atmospheric pollution and global warming. In this study, we investigated daily observed number of pollens to establish a standardized method for the impact analysis of the climate changes on the number of daily pollens in Korea. Daily observed allergenic pollens of trees, weeds, and pine were analyzed during the period of 1998 to 2010(except 2006) in Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Gwangiu, Gangneung, and Jeju. They increased in large cities including Seoul during the last 12 years and the long-term trend may continue in the future. Daily concentration or amount of pollens was highly correlated with weather variables. Positive correlation was found between air temperature and the pollens although different relationships existed for different locations. Chill days were utilized to estimate the length of the pollen season in the future.
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고밀도 관측자료를 이용한 야간 지면냉각과 찬공기 이동 분석 -서울 은평구 뉴타운 사례
이채연 ( Chae Yeon Yi ),김규랑 ( Kyu Rang Kim ),최영진 ( Young Jean Choi ),원혜영 ( Hye Young Won ),( Dieter Scherer ) 한국지리정보학회 2012 한국지리정보학회지 Vol.15 No.4
기후분석은 도시 쾌적도를 고려하는 도시계획에 있어 중요한 요소 중 하나이다. 도시지역의 기후는 종관규모보다 작은 국지규모의 기후 영향을 받는데, 본 연구에서는 도시 안에서의 야간 지면냉각과 찬공기 생성 및 유입의 효과를 분석함으로써 도시지역의 국지기후에 대한 영향을 정량화 하고자 하였다. 서울관측소 풍속에 미치는 종관 기상의 영향은 30%정도인 반면, 관측소 주변의 지형·건물·열적 현상의 영향은 70%정도인 것으로 나타났다. 또한 서울 은평구 뉴타운의 연구지역에 대하여 서울기후분석(CAS, Climate Analysis Seoul) 모델로 분석한 결과, 국지영향 기온편차 분포에서 토지피복률에 따라 도시 및 도시외곽 지역의 기온 특성이 함께 존재하고 있음을 보여주었다. 또한 고밀도 관측 자료로부터 각 지점들의 시간대별 열적반응이 국지영향 기온편차 분포와 일치함을 알 수 있었다. 관측지점들 중 실개천을 따라 설치된 지점들의 일변동은 유사하게 나타났는데, 인근 산으로부터 경사면을 따라 유입된 찬공기의 생성, 이동, 정체는 관측된 수직기온경도를 이용하여 표현되었다. 실개천의 입구에서 관측된 수직기온경도는 지면 냉각에 의한 것과 외부로부터의 찬공기 유입이라는 두 가지로 설명될 수 있다. 지면냉각은 풍속과 관계없이 존재하지만, 찬공기 유입에 의한 냉각효과는 풍속이 낮을 때만 일어났다. 풍속의 강약에 따른 회귀분석식을 이용하여, 찬공기 유입 냉각효과는 국지적인 지면 냉각의 84%였다는 것을 밝혔다. 본 연구를 통해 지역특성이 국지기후에 미치는 영향의 크기를 기존의 정적인 기온영향 분석에서 동적인 찬공기 유입분석으로 확장하였다. 이 연구를 바탕으로 앞으로의 기후분석에서는 도시민의 쾌적도를 지원하기 위한 도시개발계획의 찬공기 특성 변화를 분석할 수 있게 될 것이다. Climate analysis is important in urban planning for human comfort. Synoptic weather conditions can only resolve the 30% of local variance of wind conditions whereas 70% of the variance arise from local terrain, buildings, and other small scale thermal conditions. Climate Analysis Seoul (CAS) was developed to resolve such micro-scale climate. The Local-scale air temperature Deviation (LD) analysis map from CAS showed the co-existence of built-up and suburban areas in the study region (CR, Cold-air analysis Region) despite its small extent. Temperature, humidity, wind speed, and wind direction were monitored in CR. Hourly observed cooling rate agreed well with LD. Cold air production, transportation, and stagnation was visualized by the observed Vertical Temperature Gradient (VTG) along the small stream in CR. VTG observed at the upper-most stream can be divided into two components: radiative cooling and cold air inflow from outside. Radiative cooling exists regardless of the wind speed whereas cold air inflow occurs only with calm wind. From the regression analyses based on the wind speed, the inflow portion was determined as 84% of radiative cooling. Climate analysis in the future will be able to characterize the changes in cold air by urban development plan to support the human comfort.
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김진아(Jin-Ah Kim),김규랑(Kyu Rang Kim),Cameron C. Lee,Scott C. Sheridan,Laurence S. Kalkstein,김백조(Baek-Jo Kim) 건국대학교 기후연구소 2016 기후연구 Vol.11 No.1
The occurrence of heat waves estimated on historical runs of climate change was compared to that on reanalysis data from 1981 to 2005. Heat waves in the future then were predicted on the basis of climate change scenarios from 2006 to 2100. For the past period, the heat wave days predicted from the climate change scenarios data overestimated and than those by the reanalysis data. For the future period, the heat wave days increased until the mid-21st century and then stay stagnant by the RCP 2.6 scenario. However, the yearly heat wave days steadily increased until 2100 by the RCP 8.5 scenario. The synoptic cause of the most severe year of the heat wave days was analyzed as a strong high pressure developed around the Korean peninsula. The high pressure under the RCP 2.6 scenario was caused by the high level jet stream in the border area between China and Russia, whereas the high pressure under the RCP 8.5 scenario was caused by the strong high level jet stream and pressure ridge in the East Sea.
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