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RISS 인기검색어
- 검색키워드
- 저자 : ( Terrie Walmsley ) (검색결과 3 건)
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Dynamic Effects of the "New Age" Free Trade Agreement between Japan and Singapore
( Thomas W. Hertel ),( Terrie Walmsley ),( Ken Itakura ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 2001 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.16 No.4
As manufacturing tariffs have fallen worldwide, the focus of free trade agreements has shifted towards other issues, including: rules governing foreign investment, e-commerce regulations, trade in services, harmonization of technical standards, sanitary and phyto-sanitary regulations, and the streamlining of customs procedures. Japan and Singapore are undertaking negotiations over this kind of "new-age" FTA. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of the FTA on production, consumption, trade, international investment flows, GDP and welfare. We use a modified version of the dynamic GTAP model, which is well-suited to capturing the impact of this new-age FTA over both the short run and the longer run. In addition to the proposed bilateral tariff cuts, our analysis takes account of the potential gains from implementing uniform standards for e-commerce in Japan and Singapore. The consequences of liberalizing rules governing direct trade in services are also considered. Finally, we seek to quantify the impact of automating customs procedures in Japan, making them compatible with the computer-based standards established by Singapore. This is projected to reduce the administrative costs and lag time in Japan`s exports to, and imports from, all destinations, thereby permitting products to be delivered in a more timely fashion. We find that the impacts of this new-age FTA on bilateral trade and investment flows are significant ? with customs automization playing the most important role in driving increases in merchandise trade. The FTA also boosts rates of return in the two economies, thereby increasing both foreign and domestic investment as well as GDP. This causes the trade balance in both Japan and Singapore to deteriorate relative to baseline over the medium run, although it improves in the long run due to higher foreign income payments. The estimated global gains from this FTA are in excess of $US 9 billion annually, with the bulk of these gains accruing to Japan - which undertakes most of the reforms. Unlike preferential tariff cuts, the "new age" components of this FTA promote imports from all sources, thereby eliminating the problem of trade diversion.
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Relaxing the Restrictions on the Temporary Movement of Natural Persons: A Simulation Analysis
( L. Alan Winters ),( Terrie L. Walmsley ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 (구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2005 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.20 No.4
While the liberalisation of trade has been at the forefront of the global agenda for many decades, the movement of natural persons remains heavily guarded. Nevertheless restrictions on the movement of natural persons across regions impose a cost on developing and developed economies that far exceeds that of trade restrictions on goods. This paper uses a global CGE model to investigate the extent of these costs, by examining the effects of an increase in developed countries` quotas on both skilled and unskilled temporary labour equivalent to 3% of their labour forces. The results confirm that restrictions on the movement of natural persons impose significant costs on nearly all countries (over $150 billion in all), and that those on unskilled labour are more burdensome than those on skilled labour.
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Dynamic Effects of the "New Age"Free Trade agreement between Japan and Singapore
Hertel, Thomas W.,Walmsley, Terrie,Itakura, Ken 세종대학교 국제경제연구소 2001 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.16 No.4
As manufacturing tariffs have fallen worldwide, the focus of free trade agreements has shifted towards other issues, including: rules governing foreign investment, e-commerce regulations, trade in services, harmonization of technical standards, sanitary and phyto-sanitary regulations, and the streamlining of customs procedures. Japan and Singapore are undertaking negotiations over this kind of "new-age" FTA. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of the FTA on production, consumption, trade, international investment flows, GDP and welfare, We use a modified version of the dynamic GTAP model, which is wellsuited to capturing the impact of this new-age FTA over both the short run and the longer run, In addition to the proposed bilateral tariff cuts, our analysis takes account of the potential gains from implementing uniform standards for ecommerce in Japan and Sigapore. The consequences of liveralizing rules governing direct trade in services are also considered. Finally, we seek to quantify the impact of automating customs procedures in Japan, making them compatible with the computer-based standards established by Singapore. This is profected to reduce the administrative costs and lag time in Japan's exports to, and imports from, all destinations, thereby permitting products to be delivered in a more timely fashion. We find that the impacts of this new-age FTA on bilateral trade and investment flows are significant-with customs automization playing the most important role in driving increases in merchandise trade. The FTA also boosts rates of return in the two economies, thereby increasing both foreign and domestic investment as well as GDP. This causes the trade balance in both Japan and Singapore to deteriorate relative to baseline over the medium run, although it improves in the long run due to higher foreign income payments. The estimated global gains from this FTA are in excess of $US 9 billion annually, with the bulk of these gains accruing to Japan-which undertakes most of the reforms. Unlike preferential tariff cuts, the "new age" components of this FTA promote imports from all sources, thereby eliminating the problem of trade diversion.
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