시공간검정통계량을 이용한 도시범죄의 핫스팟분석 = Hotspot Analysis of Urban Crime Using Space-Time Scan Statistics

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The aim of this study is to investigate crime hotspot areas using the spatio-temporal cluster analysis which is possible to search simultaneously time range as well as space range as an alternative method of existing hotspot analysis only identifying crime occurrence distribution patterns in urban area. As for research method, first, crime data were collected from criminal registers provided by official police authority in M city, Gyeongnam and crime occurrence patterns were drafted on a map by using Geographic Information Systems(GIS). Second, by utilizing Ripley K-function and Space-Time Scan Statistics analysis, the spatio-temporal distribution of crime was examined. The results showed that the risk of crime was significantly clustered at relatively few places and the spatio-temporal clustered areas of crime were different from those predicted by existing spatial hotspot analysis such as kernel density analysis and k-means clustering analysis. Finally, it is expected that the results of this study can be not only utilized as a valuable reference data for establishing urban planning and crime prevention through environmental design(CPTED), but also made available for the allocation of police resources and the improvement of public security services.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 손학기, "부동산 가격변동 핫스팟 탐색을 위한 공간통계기법" 대한지리학회 43 (43): 392-411, 2008

2 정경석, "공간범죄통합분석모형을 이용한 도시범죄의 시공간적 분포 특성 및 영향요인 분석" 경상대학교 대학원 2010

3 Ripley, B.D, "The Second-Order Analysis of Stationary Point Processes" 13 : 255-266, 1976

4 Mantel, N, "The Detection of Disease Clustering and a Generalised Regression Approach" 27 : 209-220, 1967

5 Kulldorff, M, "Spatial disease clusters: Detection and Inference" 14 : 799-810, 1995

6 Anselin, L, "Spatial data analysis with GIS: An introduction to application in the social sciences. NCGIA Technical Report" 92-110, 1992

7 Shimada, T, "Spatial Diffusion of Residential Burglaries in Tokyo: Using Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis" 31 (31): 169-181, 2004

8 Diggle, P.J, "Second-order Analysis of Space-Time Clustering" 4 : 124-136, 1995

9 Weisburd, D, "Reorienting Crime Prevention Research and Policy: From the Causes of Criminality to the Context of Crime" National Institute of Justice 1997

10 Kulldorff, M, "Prospective Time-periodic Geographical Disease Surveillance using a Scan Statistic" 164 : 61-72, 2001

11 Eck, J.E, "Mapping Crime: Understanding Hot Spots" U.S Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs National Institute of Justice 23-25, 2005

12 정경석, "GIS와 공간통계기법을 이용한 시⋅공간적 도시범죄 패턴 및 범죄발생 영향요인 분석" 한국지리정보학회 12 (12): 12-25, 2009

13 황선영, "GIS를 활용한 도시 범죄의 공간패턴분석 -서울시 성북구를 사례로-" 대한국토·도시계획학회 38 (38): 53-66, 2003

14 Hirschfield, A, "GIS and the Analysis of Spatiallyreferenced Crime Data: Experiences in Merseyside, UK" 12 : 191-210, 1995

15 Murray, T.A, "Exploratory Spatial Data Hotspot Analysis of Urban Crime Using Space-28 Time Scan Statistics Analysis Techniques for Examining Urban Crime" 41 (41): 309-329, 2001

16 Knox, E.G, "Epidemiology of Childhood Lukaemia in Northumberland and Durham" 18 : 17-24, 1964

17 Kang, H.J, "Detecting agglomeration processes using space-time clustering analyses" 45 (45): 291-311, 2009

18 Levine, N, "CrimeStat: A Spatial Statistics Program for the Analysis of Crime Incident Location, Chapter9" National Institute of Justice 8-, 2005

19 Goldsmith, V, "Analyzing Crime Patterns: Frontiers of Practice" Sage 3-12, 2000

20 Jacquez, G.M, "A k Nearest Neighbour Test For Space-Time in Interaction" 15 : 1935-1949, 1996

21 Kulldorff, M, "A Spatial Scan Statistic" 26 : 1481-1496, 1997

22 Andersen, M.A, "A Spatial Analysis of Crime in Vancuouver, British Columbia: A Synthesis of Social Disorganization and Routine Activity Theory" 50 (50): 487-502, 2006

23 Kulldorff, M, "A Space-Time Permutation Scan Statistic for Disease Outbreak Detection" 2 (2): 216-224, 2005