IS THERE ANY RELATIONSHIP AMONG EXPORT-LED GROWTH HYPOTHESIS, LABOR FORCES, EXCHANGE RATE AND TRADE POLICY IN MYANMAR?

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The main purpose of this thesis is to analyze the relationship among Export-led growth hypothesis, labor forces, Exchange rate and Trade policy in Myanmar because of the trade performance for 54 years from 1962 to 2015 by using different methodologies and various econometric models to analyze the data series of export, import and GDP and different trade policy, export/ import policy and economic policy and Exchange rate and policy. The data of all variables are obtained from World Bank and UNCTAD. There is also relationship between the change for improved outcomes in trade policy reforms in Myanmar and the domestic polices practiced by the government of Myanmar and international demand. Looking gains from this study would be valuable references for the policy makers to identify the issues in the reform process. Myanmar GDP has been increasing year by year as Myanmar government operates a lot of reform processes, trade liberalization and trade policy review. The increasing of import is higher than the increasing of export as the foreign direct investment flow in a lot so there are trade deficits although GDP become increased. Because of these factors, I would like to analyze on the export, GDP, Terms of Trade and labor forces of Myanmar.This research paper analyzes the annual time series data for the period of 1981 to 2015 on GDP, export of goods and services, labor forces and terms of trade. The Export Granger-cause GDP at 5 % level so there is unidirectional causality running from export to economic growth depending on the selection of lag length two and as there is Export- led growth hypothesis in Myanmar, it is a small open economy. But there is no growth-led export in Myanmar as GDP does not Granger-cause on export. Export to GDP effects positively significant in long run but it effects negatively significant in short run. Moreover, other variables also effect positively significant to GDP in long run at the GDP growth model in one and two lags but in the Export model with three lags, there is positively significant long run relationship of the variables except terms of trade so the increasing of export depends on the increasing of import, trade policy reform, exchange rate and tariff and non-tariff barriers. Therefore, it can be analyzed that there is relationship among export-led growth hypothesis, labor forces, Exchange rate and trade policy in Myanmar.
Keywords: Economic Growth (GDP), Export (EX), Terms of Trade (TOT), Labor Forces (LBF), Augmented Dickey Fuller test, Cointegration test, VECM Model, Granger Causality test, Myanmar

목차 (Table of Contents)

• CHAPTER I: Introduction 1
• 1.1 Background of the Study of Myanmar 1
• 1.1.1 Geography of Myanmar. 1
• 1.1.2 Economic History 1
• 1.1.3 Statement of Problem (Important of Export-led growth) 2
• 1.2 Research Hypothesis 3
• 1.3 Purpose of Study 3
• 1.4 Research Question. 4
• 1.5 Significant of Study. 4
• 1.6 Limitation of Study. 5
• CHAPTER II: Literature Review 7
• CHAPTER III: Overview of Export, Trade Policy, Terms of trade, Labor forces, Exchange rate of Myanmar, Methodology and Data 14
• 3.1 Export of Myanmar 15
• 3.2 Trade Policy. 21
• 3.2.1 Terms of Trade 22
• 3.2.2 Trade Barriers . 24
• 3.2.3 Import Tariff . 25
• 3.2.4 Non- Tariff Barrier 25
• 3.2.5 Exchange Rate. 26
• 3.2.6 Inflation Rate. 27
• 3.3 Labor Forces 29
• 3.4 Research Hypothesis 31
• 3.5 Research Model 31
• 3.5.1 GDP Growth Model. 31
• 3.5.2 Export Model. 32
• 3.6 Methodology and results 33
• 3.6.1 Unit roots Test 34
• 3.6.2 Selection of Lag order 34
• 3.6.3 Cointegration Test 35
• 3.6.4 Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) 36
• 3.6.5 Granger Causality test. 40
• 3.7 Data Sources and Variables description 40
• 3.7.1 Export of goods and services (EX) . 40
• 3.7.2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) . 41
• 3.7.3 Labor forces (lbf) 41
• 3.7.4 Terms of Trade (TOT) 41
• CHAPTER IV: Empirical Result and Discussion 42
• 4.1 Testing Correlation for GDP Growth Model 42
• 4.2 Testing Correlation for Export Model 43
• 4.3 Testing for unit root 45
• 4.4 Lag selection criteria. 47
• 4.5 Cointegration test 49
• 4.6 Result of Vector Error Correction Model 54
• 4.6.1 Result of GDP Growth model with one lag 55
• 4.6.2 Result of GDP Growth model with two lags 58
• 4.6.3 Result of Export model with three lags 62
• 4.7 Granger Causality Test 66
• CHAPTER V. Conclusion and Recommendation 74
• 5.1 Conclusion 74
• 5.2 Recommendation and future research 77
• REFERENCES 80
• WEBSITES 85
• APPENDIX 86