(The) influence of U.S. trade remedies on Korea’s industrial policy : emphasis on the trends in and effects of countervailing measures since the 1970s

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Given the importance of exports in the Korean economy, international trade disputes have significant influence, not only for its impact on short term values but also on structural changes in the long run. Especially trade disputes with the U.S., due to its market size and social and political significances, have given considerable impacts on industrial policies of Korea over time.

How has the U.S. trade remedies evolved? What are the factors that caused the recent increase in U.S. trade protectionist measures and the shift in the most actively used trade remedies? How have the shifting trends in U.S. trade measures been influencing Korea’s industry policies? Answering these questions will facilitate the understanding of Korea’s industrial policies and throw lights on the ongoing and future trade disputes.

The first half of this paper provides statistics of U.S. trade remedies using data published by the U.S. International Trade Commission and other government agencies. Analysis of the statistics is focused on the trends in caseloads and shifts of most actively used measures—from anti-dumping and countervailing measures to Section 337 measures. Also, factors that induced such trends and shifts are discussed; two factors suggested include the relative decline of US hegemonic power and domestic politics.

The remaining half of the paper is concentrated on the influence of U.S. trade remedies on Korea’s industrial policy. The emphasis is on countervailing measures among several trade remedies. Statistics on U.S. CVD measures and data on subsidies that were at issue are provided in the chronological order. The countervailable subsidies show vestiges of Korea’s industrial policies from the late 1960s and 70s that targeted infant industry promotion. Subsidies that were terminated over time reflect Korean government’s efforts to eliminate causes of trade frictions. Analyzing these data provides insights on the patterns of trade disputes regarding Korea’s industrial policy.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

수출 의존도가 높은 대한민국 경제 구조상 국제통상분쟁은 단기적인 수출 실적뿐만 아니라 장기적인 산업 구조 변화 등에까지 영향력을 미친다. 특히 미국과 같이 시장규모가 크고 사회, 정치적 중요도가 높은 나라와의 통상 마찰은 우리나라의 산업 정책에 상당한 영향을 끼친다.

미국의 무역구제제도는 어떻게 진화하였는가? 어떠한 변인이 최근 미국의 보호무역적 조치들을 증가시키고 주요 무역구제제도를 변화시켰는가? 이렇게 변화하는 미국의 무역조치들은 우리나라의 산업 정책에 어떤 영향을 주었는가? 이 질문에 대한 답은 한국의 산업 정책을 더욱 온전히 이해하고 현재 진행되고 있거나 앞으로 불거질 수 있는 통상 분쟁에 대비하는 데에 도움이 될 것이다.

본 논문의 전반부는 미국 국제무역위원회 및 관련 기관에서 발표한 미국의 무역구제제도 활용에 대한 통계를 제공한 후, 각 조치 별 활용 건수 및 주요 조치의 전환 등을 분석한다. 특히 기존의 반덤핑과 상계조치의 활용 현황에서 나아가, 최근 남용되고 있는 미국관세법 제337조 조사로의 전환 등을 살피며 미국 패권의 상대적 하향과 국내 정치적 요소들이 이러한 무역구제제도 활용 양상의 변인이 될 수 있는지 알아본다.

논문의 중, 후반부에서는 미국 무역구제제도가 한국의 산업정책에 미친 영향을 다룬다. 특히 상계조치를 위주로 한 분석을 통해 통상마찰을 일으킨 우리나라의 정부 보조금 목록을 시기별로 작성하여 현재 우리나라의 산업정책에 여전히 남아있는 1960, 70년대 산업육성정책의 흔적과 이로 인해 현재까지 이어지는 통상분쟁의 패턴을 분석한다.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Abstract --------------------------------------------------------------- i
• Table of Contents -------------------------------------------------- iii
• List of Tables and Figures ----------------------------------------- v
• I. INTRODUCTION ----------------------------------------------- 1
• 1. Background --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1
• 2. Research question and objectives ------------------------------------------------- 2
• 3. Literature review --------------------------------------------------------------------- 4
• 1) Hegemonic stability theory ------------------------------------------------------- 4
• 2) Domestic politics ------------------------------------------------------------------- 6
• II. U.S. TRADE REMEDIES ------------------------------------- 8
• 1. Title VII of the Tariff Act of 1930 ------------------------------------------------- 8
• 2. Trends in the use of trade remedies --------------------------------------------- 10
• 1) Statistics ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 10
• 2) Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 17
• 3. Case study: the steel industry ----------------------------------------------------- 20
• III. INFLUENCE ON KOREA’S INDUSTRIAL POLICY 23
• 1. Trends in U.S. countervailing measures against Korea --------------------- 23
• 1) Statistics: U.S. CVD measures and subsidies at issue ------------------------ 27
• (1) 1970s ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 27
• (2) 1980s ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 29
• (3) 1990s ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 36
• (4) From 2000s to the present ---------------------------------------------------- 43
• 2) Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 49
• (1) Adjustments -------------------------------------------------------------------- 53
• (2) Vestiges of old industrial policies ------------------------------------------- 54
• 2. Current Status ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 55
• 1) Ongoing cases --------------------------------------------------------------------- 55
• 2) Korea-U.S. FTA ------------------------------------------------------------------- 57
• IV. CONCLUSION ------------------------------------------------ 60
• V. BIBLIOGRAPHY ---------------------------------------------- 62
• 국문 초록 ----------------------------------------------------------------- 67
• List of Tables and Figures
• List of Tables
• Table 1. The determinants of American trade policy --------------------------------- 7
• Table 2. Anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations initiated after January 01, 2000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 10
• Table 3. Anti-dumping duty investigations after the 2008 global financial crisis, from July 2008 to April 2009 ------------------------------------------------------ 11
• Table 4. U.S. countervailing duty investigations and measures imposed (2004-2012)----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 13
• Table 5. Top 10 Title VII CVD cases in terms of the value of imports (covered, fiscal years 1980-2008, cumulative)--------------------------------------------- 23
• Table 6. Countervailing duty (701/303) case summary ------------------------------ 25
• Table 7. US CVD imposed on Korean exports: 1970s ------------------------------- 27
• Table 8. Subsidies relevant to the CVD cases in the 1970s ------------------------- 27
• Table 9. US CVD imposed on Korean exports: 1980s ------------------------------- 29
• Table 10. Subsidies relevant to the CVD cases in the 1980s ------------------------ 31
• Table 11. US CVD imposed on Korean exports: 1990s ----------------------------- 36
• Table 12. Subsidies relevant to the CVD cases in the 1990s ------------------------ 37
• Table 13. US CVD imposed on Korean exports: 2000s to the present ------------ 43
• Table 14. Subsidies relevant to the CVD cases since the 2000s -------------------- 44
• Table 15. Major content of promotional laws ----------------------------------------- 51
• Table 16. Currently active AD and CVD investigation against Korean exports (as of May 29, 2014)----------------------------------------------------------------- 56
• List of Figures
• Figure 1. Section 337 Investigations Instituted by Calendar Year 1972-2013 --- 15
• Figure 2. Accused Products in CY 2012 and 2013 ----------------------------------- 16