Low Fertility and Aging Populations in Northeast Asia: Economic Implications

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 1. Overview and Summary 1
• Lee-Jay Cho and Yongha Kim Overview 1
• Summaries of the Presentations 5
• The “Baby Bust” and the “Marriage Bust” 5
• Economics of Population Aging and Policy and Institutional
• Response: Pensions, Social Security, Health and Long-term Care 10
• Low Fertility and Labor Migration 15
• Concluding Remarks 18
• 2. Population Prospects in Major East Asian Countries 19
• Samsik Lee
• Fertility 19
• Mortality 19
• Total Population 21
• Population by Broad Age Group 22
• Population Aging 24
• Dependency Ratios 24
• Part I. The “Baby Bust” and the “Marriage Bust”
• 3. Later and Less Marriage in East Asia: Reasons and Implications 27
• Gavin W. Jones
• Trends in Marriage in East Asia 27
• Reasons for the Trends 31
• Where Does Cohabitation Fit In? 39
• Implications 40
• Conclusions 47
• 4. Low Fertility and the High Cost of Children in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan 53
• Naohiro Ogawa
• Introduction 53
• Basic Features of the System of National Transfer Accounts 60
• Computing the Direct Private and Public Costs of Children and the Elderly 62
• The Rising Direct Costs of Children and the Elderly 69
• Concluding Remarks 75
• 5. Demographic Transition, Population Aging, and Policy Implications in China 79
• Jiehua Lu and Xuejun Yu
• Introduction 79
• Demographic Transition 80
• Population Aging and Its Characteristics 88
• Focuses on the Transitional Phenomenon 92
• China’s Response to Aging Pressures and Further Research Issues 100
• 6. Low Fertility in Europe―Consequences of the Demographic Change as a Policy Issue: Examples from Germany 105
• Frank Swiaczny
• Low Fertility in Europe 105
• Shrinking and Ageing, the Main Demographic Trends: An Update on the Impact of the Current Demographic Change in Germany 109
• Increasing Spatial Disparities in Population Structures, Impacts on Spatial Planning: A Review of Current Policy Issues 113
• Conclusions 118
• Part II. Economics of Population Aging and Policy and Institutional Response: Pensions, Social Security, Health and Long-term Care
• 7. Will Population Change be Good or Bad for the World’s Economies? 121
• Andrew Mason
• The Global Age Transition 121
• The Economic Lifecycle and Support Systems 123
• Four Responses to Changes in Population Age Structure 126
• Conclusions 132
• 8. Changes in Family Care-giving for Older Persons and Policy Responses in Korea 135
• Kyung Hee Chung
• Changes in Availability of Care for Older Persons 135
• Changes in Attitudes 139
• Changes in Care-receiving 143
• Policy Responses: Introduction of Long-term Care Insurance 143
• Policy Issues and Challenges 153
• 9. Population Aging and Health Care in Taiwan 157
• Ming-Cheng Chang
• Demographic Transition 157
• Population Growth Patterns 157
• Study and Action after Below-Replacement Fertility 159
• Latest Population Projection 160
• Prospects for Labor Force Growth 162
• Epidemiological Transition 163
• Health Care for the Elderly 163
• Concluding Remarks 165
• 10. Pensions and Population Ageing in Korea 167
• Suk-myung Yun
• Brief History of the National Pension Scheme (NPS) 167
• Coverage of the NPS 167
• Contributions to the NPS 168
• Characteristics of the NPS 169
• The 1998 Reform of the NPS 170
• The 2007 Reform of the NPS 170
• Prospects of the NPS 170
• Prospects of the Basic Old Age Pension 173
• Demographic Changes 174
• Further Issues to Address in the NPS 177
• Policy Implications 181
• Part III. Low Fertility and Labor Migration
• 11. Low Fertility, Migration and Ethnic Change in Europe 183
• 12. International Labor Migration in Korea: Current Status and Future Prospects 221