Equilibrium Risk Decision Model for Bidding Electricity Quantity Deviation of Cascade Hydropower Stations

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

There is a common phenomenon in China where the upstream and downstream hydropower stations of Cascade Hydropower Stations (CHS) belong to diferent operating entities. When independently participating in market bidding, upstream and downstream hydropower station information sharing blocked is likely to lead to the water fow mismatch of bidding volume, and resulting in no water can be used or water-abandond of downstream power plant. To make up bidding electricity shortfall of downstream station in day-ahead power market, a balance mechanism is proposed, in which downstream station through power contract transaction in the days or system punishment to balance electricity deviation. Power contract transaction includes centralized contract market and negotiated transaction with upstream station, system unbalancing penalty also as virtual transactions, then the problem is switched to electricity deviation optimal allocation in the trading portfolio. For price volatility of all transaction types, trading portfolio risk decision model of downstream power stations deviation electricity based CVaR framework is builded, which achieving minimum CVaR risk of downstream power plant electricity deviation as well as meetting preset expectation loss constraint. Finally, through the analysis of a CHS in southwestern China, it is shown that the model and method proposed in this paper can efectively reduce the imbalance between the winning electricity and incoming water matching of downstream power stations, and efectively improve the stability of hydropower consumption and power market operation