글로벌 세력전이와 한국의 중견국 외교: 대 브릭스(BRICS) 전략을 중심으로 = Global Power Transition and Korea' Middle Power Diplomacy for the BRICS

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This article explores Korea's foreign policy strategies in global governance to cope with the accelerated global power transition that results from the rise of the BRICS(Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa). While the BRICS, as a challenger, could prompt the decline of the Post-World War II global governance architecture, it might focus on strengthening their political say within the existing liberal principles and institutions. The future behavior of the BRICS can be both a challenge to and an opportunity for Korea in international politics. Korea needs to implement middle power diplomacy by playing the appropriate roles as a catalyst, a facilitators, and a manager, and by building a middle-power coalition and a networked diplomatic infrastructure. Specifically, Korea, as a catalyst, would increase the legitimacy of the UN system in global security, and introduce a new division of labor between the BRICS Development Bank and the existing Multilateral Development Banks in global development. As a manager, Korea would stabilize the international monetary system dominated by the US dollar, and make efforts to multilateralize the bilateral free trade agreements(FTAs). Furthermore, Korea needs to be equipped with the administrative and intellectual infrastructure for multilateral diplomacy, to reinforce the effectiveness and legitimacy of the G20, and to build a middle-power coalition like MIKTA.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

이 논문은 브릭스(BRICS)의 부상과 글로벌 세력전이 속에서 중견국 한국이 주요 글로벌 거버넌스 이슈에서 추진할 수 있는 전략을 논의한다. 브릭스는 신흥 도전세력으로서 전후 글로벌 거버넌스 아키텍처의 쇠퇴를 촉진할 가능성이 있는 반면에 기존 자유주의 원칙과 제도 안에서 자신의 발언권을 강화하는데 초점을 맞출 수도 있다. 브릭스의 행태가 어떤 방향으로 전개되든 한국에는 기회이면서 도전이 된다. 이에 대해 한국은 촉매자·촉진자·관리자 등 중견국 역할에 적합한 이슈영역을 발굴하고, 대 중견국 연합 등 네트워크 전략을 구사할 필요가 있다. 이를 테면 한국은 촉매자로서 국제안보 영역에서 UN체제의 정당성을 높이고 국제금융 영역에서 브릭스개발은행과 기존 다자개발은행간의 노동 분업을 꾀해야 한다. 관리자로서 국제통화체제에서 기존 달러체제의 안정화를 주도하고 국제무역질서에서는 중층적인 자유무역협정(FTA)의 다자화 필요성을 강조해야 한다. 이와 함께 일반적인 네트워크 외교 전략도 요구되는데, 브릭스의 요구를 기존 다자체제 안으로 포섭하기 위해서 다자외교의 인적·물적·지적 기반을 확충하고, 국제협력의 컨트롤 타워로서 G20의 효과성을 제고하며, 브릭스가 블록화에 대비하여 일종의 중견국 연합체를 안전판으로 구비할 필요가 있다.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 청와대 국가안보실, "희망의 새시대 국가안보전략" 청와대 국가안보실 2014

2 강선주, "한국의 중견국 외교: MIKTA 출범과 개발협력" 2013

3 윤병세, "중견국 외교로 국제사회 위상 높인다"

4 손열, "신세계질서의 구축과 한국의 G20 전략" 동아시아연구원 2010

5 송백석, "동북아체제구조 측면에서 본 한국의 ‘동북아중재자’ 역할" 극동문제연구소 22 (22): 153-184, 2006

6 배종윤, "동북아시아 지역질서의 변화와 한국의 전략적 선택 : ‘동북아 균형자론’을 둘러싼 논쟁의 한계와 세력균형론의 이론적 대안" 한국국제정치학회 48 (48): 93-118, 2008

7 김상배, "네트워크로 보는 중견국 외교전략: 구조적 공백과 위치권력 이론의 원용" 한국국제정치학회 51 (51): 51-77, 2011

8 김치욱, "국제정치의 분석단위로서 중견국가(Middle Power) : 그 개념화와 시사점" 한국국제정치학회 49 (49): 7-36, 2009

9 모종린, "국제기구 개혁과 미래 - 한국과 G20 리더십" 아산정책연구원 2010

10 "http://www.cfr.org/international-organizations-and-alliances/un-security - council-enlargement-us- interests/p23363"

11 "http://blogs.cfr.org/asia/2013/10/01/korean-middle-power-diplomacy-the -establishment-of-mikta/#"

12 Organski, A.F.K., "World Politics" Knopf 1958

13 Dobson, Wendy, "Why the Shift of Economic Gravity is Not a Power Shift"

14 Woods, Ngaire, "Whose Aid? Whose Influence? China, Emerging Donors and the Silent Revolution in Development Assistance" 84 (84): 1205-1221, 2008

15 Gilpin, Robert, "War and Change in World Politics" Cambridge University Press 1981

16 Van de Walle, Nicholas, "US Policy toward Africa: The Bush Legacy and the Obama Administration" 109 (109): 1-21, 2009

17 McDonald, Kara, "UN Security Council Enlargement and US Interests" Council on Foreign Relations 2010

18 Keohane, Robert O., "Transgovernmental Relations and International Organizations" 27 (27): 39-62, 1974

19 Waltz, Kenneth, "Theory of International Politics" Addison-Wesley 1979

20 Organski, A.F.K., "The War Ledger" University of Chicago Press 1981

21 Layne, Christopher, "The Waning of U.S Hegemony: Myth or Reality? A Review Essay" 34 (34): 147-172, 2009

22 Vezirgiannidou, Sevasti-Eleni, "The United States and Rising Powers in a Post-Hegemonic Global Order" 89 (89): 635-651, 2013

23 Kim, Woo-sang, "The United States and Northeast Asia: Debates, Issues, and New Order" Rowman and Littlefield Publishers 2008

24 Bolton, Matthew, "The Role of Middle Power-NGO Coalitions in Global Policy: The Case of the Cluster Munitions Ban" 1 (1): 172-187, 2011

25 Ikenberry, G. John, "The Rise of China and the Future of the West: Can the Liberal System Survive?" 87 (87): 2008

26 Young, Oran R., "The Politics of International Regime Formation: Managing Natural Resources and the Environment" 43 (43): 349-375, 1989

27 Neack, Laura, "The New Foreign Policy: U.S. and Comparative Foreign Policy in the 21st Century" Rowman & Littlefield 2003

28 Mahbubani, Kishore, "The New Asian Hemisphere: The Irresistible Power Shift to the East" Public Affairs 2008

29 Altman, Roger C., "The Great Crash, 2008: A Geopolitical Setback for the West" 88 (88): 2-14, 2009

30 Kissinger, Henry, "The G20 is the Key Forum for Adjusting Global Power Shift" 29 (29): 44-48, 2012

31 Lombardi, Domenico, "The G-20, the IMF and the European Debt Crisis" Brookings Institution Press 2012

32 Ikenberry, G. John, "The Future of the Liberal World Order: Internationalism After America"

33 Bremmer, Ian, "The End of the Free Market: Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations?" Portfolio 2010

34 Halper, Stefan, "The Beijing Consensus: How China's Authoritarian Model Will Dominate the Twenty-First Century" Basic Books 2010

35 The Economist, "The BRICs: The Trillion-dollar Club"

36 Leslie Elliott Armijo, "The BRICs Countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) as Analytical Category: Mirage or Insight?" 극동문제연구소 31 (31): 7-42, 2007

37 Wilson, Dominic, K., "The BRICs 10 Years On: Halfway Through the Great Transformation" Goldman Sachs 2011

38 International Monetary Fund, "The 2007 Surveillance Decision: Revised Operational Guidance" IMF 2009

39 Stairs, Denis, "Statecraft and Security: The Cold War and Beyond" Cambridge University Press 1998

40 Jeffrey Robertson, "South Korea as a Middle Power: Capacity, Behavior, and Now Opportunity" 통일연구원 16 (16): 151-174, 2007

41 Lee, Sook-Jong, "South Korea as New Middle Power: Seeking Complex Diplomacy" EAI 2012

42 Rozman, Gilbert, "South Korea and Sino-Japanese Rivalry: A Middle Power's Options within the East Asian Core Triangle" 20 (20): 197-220, 2007

43 Pilling, David, "South Korea Seeks To Halt Protectionist Drift"

44 Cooper, David, "Somewhere Between Great and Small: Disentangling the Conceptual Jumble of Middle, Regional, and 'Niche' Powers" 14 (14): 32-58, 2013

45 Adler, Emanuel, "Security Communities" Cambridge University Press 1998

46 Kim, Sangbae, "Roles of Middle Power in East Asia: A Korean Perspective" EAI 2014

47 Alexandroff, Alan, "Rising States, Rising Institutions: Challenges for Global Governance" Brookings Institution Press 2010

48 Alexandroff, Alan, "Rising States, Rising Institutions: Challenges for Global Governance" Brookings Institution Press 2010

49 Stephen, Matthew D., "Rising Regional Powers and International Institutions: The Foreign Policy Orientations of India, Brazil and South Africa" 26 (26): 289-309, 2012

50 Stephen, Matthew D., "Rising Powers, Global Capitalism and Liberal Global Governance: A Historical Materialist Account of BRICs Challenge" 2014

51 Kahler, Miles, "Rising Powers and Global Governance: Negotiating Change in a Resilient Status Quo" 89 (89): 711-729, 2013

52 Cooper, Andrew F., "Relocating Middle Powers: Australia and Canada in a Changing World Order" UBC Press 1993

53 Keohane, Robert O., "Power and Interdependence" Longman 2011

54 Wood, Barry D., "Power Shift, the Stunning Rise of the G20"

55 Zakaria, Fareed, "Post-American World" W. W. Norton 2008

56 Cooper, Andrew F., "Niche Diplomacy: Middle Powers After the Cold War" Macmillan Press 1997

57 Ruggie, John Gerard, "Multilateralism: The Anatomy of an Institution" 46 (46): 561-598, 1992

58 Serfaty, Simon, "Moving into a Post-Western World" 34 (34): 7-23, 2011

59 Gilley, Bruce, "Middle Powers and the Rise of China" Georgetown University Press 2014

60 Mo Jongryn, "MIKTA, Middle Powers, and New Dynamics of Global Governance: The G20's Evolving Agenda" Palgrave Pivot 2014

61 Snyder, Scott A., "Korean Middle Power Diplomacy: The Establishment of MIKTA" 1 : 2013

62 Wang Hwi Lee, "Korean Foreign Policy and the Rise of the BRICs Countries" 극동문제연구소 31 (31): 205-224, 2007

63 Cox, Michael, "Is the United States in Decline: Again?" 83 (83): 643-653, 2007

64 Patrick, Stewart, "Irresponsible Stakeholders: The Difficulty of Integrating Rising Powers" 89 (89): 44-53, 2010

65 Hart, Andrew F., "How Do Rising Powers Rise?" 52 (52): 63-88, 2010

66 Armijo, Leslie E., "Handbook of Emerging Economies" Routledge 2014

67 Plender, John, "Great Dangers Attend the Rise and fall of Great Powers"

68 Dobson, Wendy, "Gravity Shift: How Asia’s New Economic Powerhouses Will Shape the 21st Century" University of Toronto Press 2009

69 Beausang-Hunter, Francesca A., "Globalization and the BRICs: Why the BRICs Will Not Rule the World For Long" Palgrave Macmillan 2012

70 National Intelligence Council, "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds" NIC 2012

71 Glenn, John, "Global Governance and the Democratic Deficit: Stifling the Voice of the South" 29 (29): 217-238, 2008

72 Woods, Ngaire, "Global Governance After the Financial Crisis: A New Multilateralism or the Last Gasp of the Great Powers?" 1 (1): 51-63, 2010

73 EU Institute for Security Studies, "Global Governance 2025: At a Critical Juncture" EU Institute of Security Studies 2010

74 최영종, "G20과 글로벌 금융거버넌스 체제의 변화" 일민국제관계연구원 15 (15): 193-220, 2010

75 강선주, "G20 정상회의의 미래와 중견국의 역할" 2013

76 Taylor, Paul, "G20 Ends Anglo-Saxon Era"

77 Schweller, Randall, "Emerging Powers in an Age of Disorder" 17 (17): 285-297, 2011

78 Kirshner, Jonathan, "Dollar Primacy and American Power: What’s at Stake?" 15 (15): 418-438, 2008

79 Gowan, Richard, "Diplomatic Fallout: The Fading Dream of UN Security Council Reform"

80 Brütsch, Christian, "Deconstructing the BRICS: Bargaining Coalition, Imagined Community, or Geopolitical Fad?" 6 (6): 299-327, 2013

81 Cox, Robert W., "Decision Making in International Organization" Yale University Press 1973

82 Ferguson, Niall, "Civilization: The West and the Rest" Penguin/Allen Lane 2011

83 Wang, Jisi, "China’s Search for a Grand Strategy: A Rising Power Finds its Way" 90 (90): 68-79, 2011

84 Foot, Rosemary, "China, the United States, and Global Order" Cambridge University Press 2011

85 Clark, Ian, "China and the United States: A Succession of Hegemonies" 87 (87): 13-28, 2011

86 Glosny, Michael A., "China and the BRICs: A Real(but Limited) Partnership in a Unipolar World" 42 (42): 100-129, 2010

87 Cooper, David, "Challenging Contemporary Notions of Middle Power Influence: Implications of the Proliferation Security Initiative for 'Middle Power Theory.'" (7) : 317-336, 2011

88 Roberts, Cynthia, "Challengers or Stakeholders? BRICs and the Liberal World Order" 42 (42): 1-13, 2010

89 Stuenkel, Oliver, "Can the BRICS Co-operate in the G-20? A View from Brazil" South African Institute 2012

90 이재승, "Beyond New Markets: BRICs and Korean Diplomacy" 국제지역연구센터 9 (9): 193-210, 2006

91 David C. Kang, "Between Balancing and Bandwagoning: South Korea's Response to China" 동아시아연구원 9 (9): 1-28, 2009

92 김치욱, "BRICS의 협력 모델과 중견국 협력 전략" 외교부 2013

93 강선주, "BRICS의 금융통화 협력: BRICS 개발은행과 비상보유고협정의 글로벌 거버넌스 함의" 2013

94 Antkiewics, Agata, "BRICSAM and the Non-WTO" 1 (1): 237-261, 2006

95 Laidi, Zaki, "BRICS: Sovereignty Power and Weakness" 49 (49): 614-632, 2011

96 고재남, "BRICS 정상회담의 국제 정치·경제적 의미" 2011

97 Pant, Harsh V., "BRICS Not That Sturdy"

98 Cox, Robert W., "Approaches to World Order" Cambridge University Press 1996

99 McNamara, Kathleen, "A Rivalry in the Making? The Euro and International Monetary Power" 15 (15): 441-443, 2008

100 Hurrell, Andrew, "A New Politics of Confrontation? Brazil and India in Multilateral Trade Negotiations" 20 (20): 415-433, 2006

101 Lukov, Vadim, "A Global Forum for the New Generation: The Role of the BRICS and the Prospects for the Future"

102 Friedberg, Aaron, "A Contest for Supremacy: China, America and the Struggle for the Mastery of Asia" W. W. Norton 2011

103 김기정, "21세기 한국 외교의 좌표와 과제: 동북아 균형자론의 국제정치학적 의미를 중심으로" 세종연구소 11 (11): 149-174, 2005