이스라엘의 핵개발 결정과 핵전략: 포위심성(siege mentality)의 적용 = Israel's Nuclear Development Decision and Nuclear Strategy: The Application of Siege Mentality

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This article seeks to find the drive for Israel’s nuclear development decision and nuclear strategy, in siege mentality. Siege mentality refers to a collective psychological state in which the actors assume the international community's intentions and attitudes as always negative towards them. Siege mentality is composed of two negative emotions, fear and distrust. Meanwhile, states or groups seized by siege mentality believe they cannot and should not expect aid from outside because they have been abandoned by the international community. Israel experienced the Holocaust and Independence War. From these incidents, Israel formed a distrust of the international community and of sponsors, and also fear of threats from aggressive states. If Israel distrusts the very entities that were believed to secure its survival, while there is persisting fear of threats from aggressive states, then it would have had no choice but to decide nuclear weapons and adopt a unique nuclear strategy that would differentiate from other nuclear powers. The results of the study are also suggestive of studies on North Korea's nuclear weapons program. If we can systematically analyze the secretive nature of the North Korea’s siege mentality, it will also provide meaningful explanations for North Korea's nuclear weapons program and its nuclear strategy.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

이스라엘에는 ‘국제사회의 의도나 행태가 자신에게 항상 부정적이라고 인식하는 집단적 심리상태’인 포위심성이 내재돼 있다. 포위심성은 국가가 생존 위기에 직면한 상황에서 국제사회가 무관심으로 일관하거나 오히려 자국에게 적대적인 행위를 취할 때 형성된다. 이스라엘의 포위심성은 생존을 위협하는 홀로코스트와 독립전쟁의 상황에서 국제사회가 보인 적대적이고 부정적인 행태로 인해 형성되었다. 포위심성에 사로잡힌 국가는 스스로가 국제사회에서 버림받았다고 여기기 때문에 생존의 위협에 직면해서도 외부의 지원을 기대할 수 없으며, 기대해서도 안 된다고 인식한다. 이스라엘이 자국의 생존을 위해 핵개발에 나선 것이나, 여타 핵보유국들과는 차별화되는 독특한 핵전략을 채택해 유지하는 것도 포위심성에서 비롯되었다고 볼 수 있다. 본 연구의 결과는 북한 핵문제에 관한 연구에도 시사하는 바가 크다. 만일 북한에 내재된 포위심성의 인식체계를 체계적으로 분석해낼 수 있다면, 북한의 핵개발이나 핵전략을 규명하는데 있어서도 유의미한 설명력을 제공할 것이다.

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