RCP 8.5 기후변화 시나리오의 강수량 변화에 따른 미래 PMPs의 전망 = Future PMPs projection according to precipitation variation under RCP 8.5 climate change scenario

국문 초록 (Abstract)

미래 기후변화 시나리오에 따르면 극한강우사상이 현재보다 더 강화될 것으로 전망되기 때문에, 기후변화의 영향이 추정절차에 반영되지 않는다면 가능최대강수량(PMPs)을 과소 추정하게 될 가능성이 매우 높다. 본 연구에서는 미래의 강우 변동이 반영된 PMPs가 추정된다. PMPs 계산을 위하여 수문기상학적 방법이 이용되며, 기존에 사용되어오던 지형영향비를 대신하여 산악전이비가 가능최대강수량의 산정에 적용된다. 미래 주요호우사상들로부터의 DAD는 기상청 RCM (HEDGEM3-RA) RCP 8.5 기후변화 시나리오의 일 강수자료를 기반으로 편의보정 및 이동평균 된 변화인자를 이용하여 간접적으로 산출된다. 미래 PMPs 산출결과, 현재보다 증가하는 것으로 나타났으며 증가율은 2045년 기준으로 평균적으로 연간 3 mm 정도 증가하는 것으로 예측되었으며, 먼 미래로 갈수록 PMPs의 증가율은 커졌으나 미래강우자료로부터 유발되는 PMPs 추정의 불확실성 또한 증가되고 있는 것으로 파악된다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Since future climate scenarios indicate that extreme precipitation events will intensity, probable maximum precipitations (PMPs) without being taken climate change into account are very likely to be underestimated. In this study future PMPs in accordance with the variation of future rainfall are estimated. The hydro-meteorologic method is used to calculate PMPs. The orographic transposition factor is applied in place of the conventional terrain impact factor which has been used in previous PMPs estimation reports. Future DADs are indirectly obtained by using bias-correction and moving-averaged changing factor method based on daily precipitation projection under KMA RCM (HEDGEM3-RA) RCP 8.5 climate change scenario. As a result, future PMPs were found to increase and the spatially-averaged annual PMPs increase rate in 4-hour and $25km^2$ was projected to be 3 mm by 2045. In addition, the increased rate of future PMPs is growing increasingly in the future, but it is thought that the uncertainty of estimating PMPs caused by future precipitation projections is also increased in the distant future.

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