부동산 경기침체가 서울시 세수에 미치는 영향 = The Impact of Global Financial Crisis on Real Estate Models in Seoul

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Due to decrease of world economic growth by the financial crisis in the United States, the Korean government has pushed an economy stimulus package with overall policies such as a expansionary fiscal policy and the deregulation in the real estate market. However, the recession of the real estate market in overall business continues unabated. In addition, the real estate acquisition and registration taxes in Seoul share more than 30% in the self-governing district tax. And this fact is concerning problem about text loss if the real estate market`s recession had maintained long lasting. In this study, we have conducted the forecast of tax losses by the recession in the real estate of Seoul. We also recommended some suggestions to make-up for the loss. The average growth rate of the municipal tax in Seoul is 10.5 percentage and the average growth rate of the real estate acquisition and registration taxes is 10.44 percentage. These have shown a similar trend with the Seoul economic growth. This study shows how the housing price is positively correlated with the real estate taxes. In other words, the housing price have a lag behind for a quarter in the real estate market. In addition, the average of the real estate acquisition and registration taxes against of Seoul`s GRDP is 1.49 percentage from 1992 to 2008. We conduct a simple simulation experiment in order to check the sensibility of the real estate acquisition and registration taxes against the Seoul`s GRDP growth rate. When the 1%p growth rate of Seoul`s GRDP 1%P in the real price of 2005 decreases, the real estate acquisition and registration taxes reduce 2.56 percentage of that. This suffers a tax loss of 697.9 billion won. For revitalizing of the economy, Seoul Metro Government (SMG) has to revise a financial management policy, If the economy is more slow down, SMG should expand financial resources. Moreover, we have to boost Seoul`s economies with an extra financial spending and to maintain fiscal health. This paper consists of five chapters. The chapter one describes some outlines that focuse on the background, purpose and method of this study. The chapter two analyzes the determinant factors of the real estate`s business cycle and a long-term trend of the real estate market, In addition, we examines a long-term trend of the real estate acquisition and registration taxes. We also research central government policies in the real estate market. The chapter three suggests three forecasting models of forecasting values that focus on the real estate acquisition and registration taxes. The chapter four proposes the direction of Seoul`s financial management to overcome the financial crisis. And the final chapter concludes in this study.