미국의 남아시아 전략과 선택적 비확산정책 : “전략적 균형”을 위한 수평적 핵확산 = United States’ “Selective Non-Proliferation Policy” and South-Asia Strategy : Seeking “Strategic Balance” through Horizontal Proliferation

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study argues that the United States has pursued “selective non-proliferation policies” in accordance with its South Asian strategy. To actively form a "strategic balance" at the regional and international level, the U.S. has supported or condoned horizontal nuclear proliferation in South Asia, or has pursued non-proliferation through hard-line coercion. There are two factors that determine America's selective non-proliferation policy. The first is the nuclear balance at the international level. First of all, when the U.S. is concerned about its weakening nuclear superiority, it supports the "friendly" nuclear proliferation in South Asia. On the other hand, if the proliferation of nuclear weapons could undermine the interests and influence of the United States, it takes a tough non-proliferation policy. The second is the nuclear balance at the regional level. This allows the U.S. to occupy a position to actively intervene while maintaining stability in South Asia. The U.S. either Supports or condones to nuclear development in relatively small countries when regional nuclear imbalances occur. However, under the regional nuclear balance, a tough non-proliferation policy is adopted to curb the vertical nuclear proliferation. This overriding concern for U.S. foreign policy is to maintain its strategic superiority, which can change the non-proliferation policy depending on the strategic situation. It can also be seen that there is room for U.S. intervention in non-proliferation policy because of its "bounded rationality" in the policy-making process.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구는 미국이 남아시아 전략에 따라 “선택적”으로 비확산정책을 추진해 왔다고 본다. 지역 및 국제체계 차원에서 인위적이고 적극적으로 “전략적 균형”을 형성하기 위해, 남아시아에서의 수평적 핵확산을 지원 또는 묵인하기도 하고, 강경한 강압을 통해 비확산을 추구해왔다고 주장한다. 미국의 선택적 비확산정책을 결정하는 요인은 두 가지이다. 첫째는 국제체계 차원에서의 핵균형이다. 먼저 미국의 핵우위를 강화할 수 있다면 남아시아에서의 ‘우호적’ 핵확산을 지원한다. 다른 한편, 핵무기의 확산으로 인해 미국의 이익과 영향력을 침해할 수 있다면 강경한 비확산정책을 취한다. 둘째는 지역 차원에서의 핵균형이다. 이를 통해 미국은 남아시아의 안정을 유지하면서, 한편으로는 적극적으로 개입할 수 있는 위치를 점할 수 있다. 지역적 핵불균형이 발생하면 상대적 약소국에 대한 핵개발을 지원 또는 묵인한다. 하지만 지역적 핵균형 상태에서는 수직적 핵확산을 억제하기 위한 강경한 비확산정책을 취한다. 이와 같이 미국 대외정책의 최우선 관심은 전략적 우위 유지에 있기 때문에 전략상황에 따라 비확산정책이 변화할 수 있으며, 정책결정과정에서의 “제한적 합리성” 때문에 미국의 비확산정책에 대한 개입의 여지도 있음을 확인할 수 있다.

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