글로벌 보호무역 네트워크의 구조와 정책적 시사점 = Global Protectionism Network and Its Policy Implications

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Witnessing the diffusion of global protectionism after the global financial crisis, this article aims at highlighting its structure and policy implications using network analysis. It explores key features of global protectionism network, based on the data on 160 WTO member countries from 2008 to 2020. It finds that an increasing network density signals a more globalized protectionism, and that higher reciprocity shows the retaliatory nature of protectionist measures, and finally that the U.S.-China-India tripartite system holds a gate-keeping power within the network. Meanwhile, South Korea is at the center of protectionism-receiving networks and under greater pressure of protectionist diffusion, but lacks any structural advantage for a circuit breaker. Its corresponding trade policy needs to construct an anti-protectionism network that links G20+α countries with a new political economic model characterized by more fairness and inclusiveness.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

이 연구는 글로벌 금융위기 이후 세계경제에서 보호무역 조치가 확산된 데에 주목하고 네트워크 분석을 활용하여 그 구조를 밝히고 정책적 시사점을 도출하려고 시도했다. 2008년부터 2020년까지 세계무역기구 160개 회원국에 대한 세계무역경보 데이터베이스를 기초로 보호무역 네트워크의 구도와 속성을 탐구했다. 그 결과, 차별적 무역조치를 실시하는 대열에 더 많은 국가들이 참여하여 보호무역 네트워크의 밀도가 높아진 것으로 나타났다. 차별적 조치의 상호 맞교환이 더 빈번해짐으로써 보호무역의 보복적 성격도 강해졌다. 또한 인접국가 간의 보호무역 네트워크가 활성화되어 차 별적 정책의 확산 효과가 증가했으며, 미국-중국-인도 삼두체제는 보호무역의 문지기로서의 위치 권력을 차지하고 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 한국은 보호무역 수신 네트워크의 중심에 있고, 보호무 역의 확산 압력에 더 노출되어 있다. 그렇지만 보호무역의 회로를 차단할 만한 구조적 이점은 갖지 못하고 있다. 이를 보완하기 위해서 G20+알파를 구성 노드로 하면서 자유무역의 공정성과 포용성 을 높이는 새로운 정치경제모델을 링크로 삼는 네트워크 통상전략을 추진할 필요가 있다.

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