自發的으로 公示한 豫測會計情報의 誤差源泉 類型 = Forecast Error Sources and Types of Voluntary Disclosure Accounting Forecasts

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper empirically examines the forecast error sources and types of Management's accounting forecasts. The smaple consists of 135 firms which announced management' sales, ordinary income and net income forecasts in daily economic news papers(maeil and korea business newspaper) during the years of 1995 and 1996.
The accuracy of forecasts is evaluated by the mean forecast errors, mens absolute forecast errors for the level and error rate. The results show that forecast errors of variables(sales, ordinary income and net income) are very large. and the results that accuracy of managements' evaluated by Theil's inequality coefficient also not so good compare with martingale forecast model. Among the variables, the forecasts of sales are more accurate than that of ordinary and net income, indication that cost is more difficult to forecast than sales. In addition to that, the result implies predicting of extrodinary income and expenditure is very difficults.
The decomposition of mean square errors into three factors of economy wide factors, industry factors and firm specific factors shows that over the seventy percent of forecast errors is stemmed from the inaccurate forecast of firm specific factors affecting sales, ordinary and net income. This implies that forecasts can be improved by mainly focusing on the better projection of nation's economy. This result, however, implies internal and external accointing information users have to use for decision making very carefully.
Another decomposition of mean square forecast errors into three patterns of bias, regression and random shows that most of the forecast errors of sales, ordinary and net income are attributable to the random factors(over 70%). But, in the case of some industry, bias errors are major pattern. This seems to relect the manager's presuppositon that this year sales, ordinary, net income would be always higher than that of previous year in case of our country of which economy is growing continously.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. 머 리 말
• Ⅱ. 先行硏究의 檢討
• Ⅲ. 標本의 選定과 分析方法
• 1. 標本의 選定
• 2. 變數의 測定과 分析方法
• Ⅳ. 分析結果와 解釋
• 1. 豫測誤差의 記述統計量
• 2. Theil의 不等係數
• 3. 豫測誤差의 原則
• 4. 豫測誤差의 類型
• Ⅴ. 맺 음 말
• <參考文獻>