북한의 핵위협에 대한 군사적 대응방안 = Military response to North Korea's nuclear threat

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구의 목적은 북한의 핵 위협에 대한 한미의 대북정책과 우리의 대응방안을 살펴보고, 분석을 통하여 실현 가능한 군사적 대응방안을 제시하는 데 있다. 우리의 대응방안은 공식적, 비공식적인 것으로 구분할 수 있는데 공식적인 것은 정부의 발표나 각종 백서 등의 내용이고, 비공식적인 것은 학자나 연구가들의 주장이며, 실현 가능한 방안은 필자의 의견이다. 또한, 공식적, 비공식적 대응방안은 군사적인 것과 비군사적인 것으로 구분할 수 있다.
연구결과 공식적 군사적 대응방안은 한국형 3축 체계의 능력을 확보하고, 한미의 북한 핵‧미사일 억제 및 대응능력을 강화하며, 확고한 한미 연합방위태세의 구축 등이 있고, 공식적 비군사적 대응방안에는 비핵·평화·번영의 한반도를 위한 담대한 구상, 억제‧단념‧대화의 ‘3D 접근’, 주요국과 긴밀한 소통과 협력. 다자·국제무대에서의 지지 확보 등이 있다. 비공식적 군사적 대응방안에는 선제공격, 자위적 핵무장, 전술핵 재배치, 전술핵무기 100기 지정과 배치의 확약 등이 있고, 비군사적 대응방안에는 대북제재의 강화, 6자회담의 적극 활용 등이 있다.
분석결과 위의 공식적, 비공식적 군사적 대응방안들 모두 북한의 이해관계와 충돌하여 비핵화를 달성하기가 쉽지 않다. 따라서 실현 가능한 방안인 미국 전술핵무기의 실질적 공유와 중장기적으로 ‘아시아 군사동맹’의 창설 등을 통해 강력한 대응 및 억제능력을 갖춰야 한다. 왜냐하면, 북핵에 대응하기 위해서는 우리도 핵으로 대응해야 하고, 한미동맹 외에 아시아 및 태평양 국가들의 군사동맹을 통한 집단안보 체제로 안보를 보다 강화할 필요성이 제기된다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purpose of this study is to examine the ROK-US policy toward North Korea and our response measures to the North Korean nuclear threat, and to present feasible military response measures through analysis. Our response measures can be divided into official and unofficial ones. Official measures are the contents of government announcements and various white papers, unofficial measures are the claims of scholars and researchers, and feasible measures are the author’s opinions. In addition, official and unofficial response measures can be divided into military and non-military measures.
The results of the study show that official military response measures include securing the capabilities of the ROK-type three-axis system, strengthening the ROK-US deterrence and response capabilities of North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs, and establishing a solid ROK-US joint defense posture. Official non-military response measures include a bold plan for a denuclearized, peaceful, and prosperous Korean Peninsula, the ‘3D approach’ of deterrence, renunciation, and dialogue, close communication and cooperation with major countries, and securing support on the multilateral and international stage. Unofficial military response measures include preemptive strikes, self-defense nuclear armament, tactical nuclear redeployment, and designation and deployment of 100 tactical nuclear weapons. Non-military response measures include strengthening sanctions against North Korea and active use of the Six-Party Talks.
The analysis results show that all of the above official and unofficial military response measures conflict with North Korea’s interests, making it difficult to achieve denuclearization. Therefore, we must secure strong response and deterrence capabilities through feasible measures such as actual sharing of US tactical nuclear weapons and the creation of an ‘Asian military alliance’ in the mid- to long-term. This is because in order to respond to North Korea’s nuclear weapons, we must also respond with nuclear weapons, and in addition to the ROK-US alliance, we need to further strengthen our security through a collective security system through a military alliance of Asian and Pacific countries.
The North Korean nuclear issue is linked to our survival, so we must thoroughly prepare, and it is most desirable for North Korea and ROK-US to resolve it peacefully. However, in order to respond to North Korea, which has made possession of nuclear weapons a fait accompli, we must secure a solid deterrence capability against North Korea based on the concept of mutual assured destruction. If we can use nuclear weapons, North Korea will not be able to threaten us so easily. We should closely consult with the United States on the military response measures presented above and ultimately try to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue amicably through dialogue and deterrence.