The Impact of Promotion and Relegation on Competitive Balance and its Implications for Attendance in the K-League = K리그 승강제 도입이 경쟁 균형과 관중 수요에 미친 영향

국문 초록 (Abstract)

경쟁균형(Competitive Balance, CB)은 스포츠 경제학 문헌에서 중심이 되는 이론으로, 프로스포츠 리그에서 팀들 간 전력 차이가 크지 않은 상태를 의미한다. 이에 직접 연결되는 경기 결과 불확실성 가설(Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis, UOH)은, 팬 수요와 경쟁균형 간의 관계를 설명하며, 경기와 시즌의 결과가 예측하기 어려울수록 팬의 흥미가 증가하며, 이는 경쟁이 보다 균형을 이루는 상태에 가까울 때 나타난다고 한다. 이러한 맥락에서, 본 연구는 2013년 승강제 도입이 대한민국 남자 프로축구 1부 리그인 K리그에서 경쟁균형과 경기장 관중 수요 간의 관계를 어떻게 변화시켰는지를 분석하는 것을 목적으로 한다.
분석과정은 두 단계로 진행된다. 첫째, 리그 전반에 걸쳐서 경쟁균형이 관중 수요에 어떠한 영향을 미쳤는지 검증한다. 둘째, 2013년도 승강제 도입 이후 두 변수 간의 관계가 변화하였는지 분석한다. 분석하기 위해 2001년부터 2024년까지의 K리그 팀-시즌 패널 데이터를 활용하였으며, 방법론으론 고정효과 회귀분석을 실시하였다.
분석 결과, K리그의 경쟁균형이 악화될수록 관중 수는 감소하는 경향을 보였으며, 이는 결과의 불확실성 이론과 일치한다. 또한 2013년 승강제가 도입된 이후 기존의 경쟁균형과 관중수요 간 관계가 반비례에서 정비례 관계로 변화하였다.
이 연구의 결과가 리그 실무자들에게 갖는 시사점은, 승강제와 같은 정책의 도입은 스포츠 리그의 팬 수요에 유의미한 영향을 미치며, 향후 도입하고자 하는 정책은 거버넌스 원칙에 부합하도록 신중하면서도 투명하게 수립 및 집행될 필요가 있다는 것이다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Competitive Balance (CB) is probably, if not, the most central topic in sport economics literature. Affecting crucial aspects such as fan engagement and financial stability, it is widely recognized as a key factor for the sustainability of professional sport leagues. The relationship between CB and fan especially, could be explained by the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis (UOH), which is the foundation of the literature. UOH suggests that fans are more interested when matches and seasons are unpredictable, meaning the balance in the competition is close to being equal. In this context, the study investigates South Korea's first division of men's professional football where the 'K-League' has implemented a promotion and relegation system in 2013. While the reform has altered various structural aspects within the league, the impact on the relationship between CB and attendance is still empirically unclear. Thus, the purpose of this study is to understand how the 2013 promotion and relegation reform may have changed the relationship between CB and attendance in the K-League.
The analysis proceeds in two parts. First, it examines whether CB is associated with variations in attendance across the league. Second, it investigates whether this relationship shifted after the introduction of the promotion and relegation system. A fixed-effects regression approach is used with team-season panel data from 2001 to 2024 season of K-League.
The results support the UOH as when the league became more imbalanced, attendance tended to decrease. This association grew stronger after the 2013 reform, suggesting that the fans’ attending behaviors have changed. It could be stated that fans became more attentive to fairness and competitive stakes once the promotion and relegation system created clearer consequences for poor performances.
The findings of this thesis offer crucial evidence to practitioners that policies, such as the promotion and relegation system, have significant impact on sport league’s overall fan demand. Later policies should also be acted out consistently with both cautious and transparent governance.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Chapter 1. Introduction 01
• 1.1. Rationale of the Study 01
• 1.2. Purpose of the Study 02
• Chapter 2. Literature Review 05
• 2.1. Competitive Balance 05
• 2.1.1. Competitive Balance Conceptualization 05
• 2.1.2. Measures of Competitive Balance 08
• 2.1.2.1. Competitive Balance Categorization 08
• 2.1.2.2. HHI-Based Measures 10
• 2.1.2.3. Standard Deviation Based Measures 11
• 2.1.2.4. Bias-Corrected Standard Deviation Measure 14
• 2.1.3. Football Policies 17
• 2.1.3.1. Policy Interventions and Competitive Balance 17
• 2.1.3.2. Promotion and Relegation on Competitive Balance 18
• 2.2. K-League Attendance 20
• 2.2.1. Overview of K-League 20
• 2.2.1.1. Development of K-League 20
• 2.2.1.2. Stadium Attendance 21
• 2.2.1.3. Attendance in K-League 22
• 2.2.2. Promotion and Relegation in K-League 24
• 2.3. Research Questions and Hypotheses 27
• Chapter 3. Method and Data 29
• 3.1. Model Specifications 29
• 3.1.1. Data Collection 29
• 3.1.2. Dependent Variable: Attendance 31
• 3.1.3. Independent Variable: Bias-Corrected Standard Deviation 32
• 3.1.4. Control Variables 35
• 3.2. Data Analysis Method 38
• 3.2.1. Fixed-Effects Panel Regression Analysis Model 38
• 3.2.2. Moderation Effect Analysis Model 40
• Chapter 4. Results 42
• 4.1. Descriptive Statistics 42
• 4.2. Correlation Analysis 44
• 4.3. Results of Fixed-Effects Regression Analysis Model 45
• 4.4. Results of Moderation Effect Analysis Model 48
• Chapter 5. Conclusion 54
• 5.1. Summary of Results 54
• 5.2. Academic Implications and Contributions 56
• 5.3. Practical Implications and Contributions 58
• 5.4. Limitations 59
• 5.5. Future Research 60
• Bibliography 62
• APPENDIX 73
• Abstract in Korean 77