Technological forecasting for decision making

목차 (Table of Contents)

• CONTENTS
• Series Introduction = xiii
• Preface = xv
• Chapter 1. Introduction = 1
• 1.1 What is Technological Forecasting ? = 1
• 1.2 Why Forecast Technology ? = 4
• 1.3 Alternatives to Forecasting = 5
• 1.4 Will it Come True? = 8
• 1.5 Stages of Innovation = 8
• 1.6 Methods of Forecasting = 10
• 1.7 Computer Programs = 12
• 1.8 Remainder of the Book = 12
• Chapter 2. Delphi = 15
• 2.1 Introduction = 15
• 2.2 Advantages of Committees = 16
• 2.3 Disadvantages of Committees = 16
• 2.4 The Delphi Procedure = 17
• 2.5 Conducting a Delphi Sequence = 19
• 2.6 Variations on Delphi = 22
• 2.7 Guidelines for Conducting a Delphi Sequence = 24
• 2.8 Selecting Delphi Panel Members = 27
• 2.9 Constructing Delphi Event Statements = 30
• 2.10 Manipulation of Delphi Results = 32
• 2.11 Using TEKFOR = 33
• 2.12 Summary = 33
• Chapter 3. Forecasting by Analogy = 37
• 3.1 Introduction = 37
• 3.2 Problems with Analogies = 38
• 3.3 Dimensions of Analogies = 39
• 3.4 Selecting Analogous Technologies = 52
• 3.5 Deviations from a Formal Analogy = 53
• 3.6 Summary = 54
• Chapter 4. Growth Curves = 57
• 4.1 Introduction = 57
• 4.2 Substitution Curves = 59
• 4.3 Using Growth Curves = 60
• 4.4 The Pearl Curve = 61
• 4.5 The Gompertz Curve = 63
• 4.6 Comparison of the Pearl and Gompertz Curves = 64
• 4.7 Other Growth Curves = 66
• 4.8 Estimating the Upper Limit = 66
• 4.9 Selecting Variables for Substitution Curves = 72
• 4.10 An Example of a Forecast = 73
• 4.11 Summary = 76
• Chapter 5. Trend Extrapolation = 79
• 5.1 Introduction = 79
• 5.2 Exponential Trends = 80
• 5.3 An Example of a Forecast = 82
• 5.4 A Model for Exponential Growth = 83
• 5.5 Qualitative Trends = 88
• 5.6 A Behavioral Technology = 90
• 5.7 Summary = 91
• Chapter 6. Measures of Technology = 93
• 6.1 Introduction = 93
• 6.2 Scoring Models = 96
• 6.3 Constrained Scoring Models = 105
• 6.4 Technology Frontiers = 107
• 6.5 Planar Technology Frontlers = 108
• 6.6 Ellipsoldal Technology Frontiers = 112
• 6.7 Summary = 113
• Chapter 7. Correlation Methods = 115
• 7.1 Introduction = 115
• 7.2 Lead - Lag Correlation = 115
• 7.3 Technological Progress Function = 120
• 7.4 Maximum Installation Size = 122
• 7.5 Correlation with Economic Factors = 123
• 7.6 Stages of Development = 125
• 7.7 Patents as Leading Indicators = 126
• 7.8 Summary = 128
• Chapter 8. Causal Models = 131
• 8.1 Introduction = 131
• 8.2 Technology - Only Models = 132
• 8.3 Techno - Economic Models = 138
• 8.4 Economic and Social Models = 143
• 8.5 Model Construction = 152
• 8.6 Summary = 153
• Chapter 9. Probabilistic Methods = 157
• 9.1 Introduction = 157
• 9.2 The Distribution of Discoverles = 157
• 9.3 A Probabilistic Biological Analogy = 160
• 9.4 Stochastic Projection = 164
• 9.5 Distribution of Time Lags = 167
• 9.6 Stochastic Cellular Automata = 172
• 9.7 Summary = 175
• Appendix 9A Program Listing for Competitive Substitution = 175
• Appendix 9B The Nelder - Mead Algorithm = 177
• Appendix 9C Approximating Probability Distributions = 180
• Chapter 10. Environmental Monitoring = 187
• 10.1 Introduction = 187
• 10.2 Examples of Breakthroughts = 188
• 10.3 The Process of Monitoring = 192
• 10.4 Where to Look for Clues = 196
• 10.5 Examples from the Automotive Industry = 198
• 10.6 Organizing for Monitoring = 202
• 10.7 Summary = 206
• Chapter 11. Combining Forecasts = 209
• 11.1 Introduction = 209
• 11.2 Trend and Growth Curves = 209
• 11.3 Trend and Analogy = 211
• 11.4 Components and Aggregates = 213
• 11.5 Scenarios = 214
• 11.6 Cross - impact Models = 220
• 11.7 Model Construction = 232
• 11.8 Summary = 233
• Chapter 12. Normative Methods = 235
• 12.1 Introduction = 235
• 12.2 Relevance Trees = 235
• 12.3 Morphological Models = 239
• 12.4 Mission Flow Diagrams = 241
• 12.5 Goals = 242
• 12.6 Summary = 242
• Chapter 13. Planning and Decision Making = 247
• 13.1 Introduction = 247
• 13.2 The Purpose of Planning = 247
• 13.3 The Role of the Forecast = 250
• 13.4 Decision Making = 251
• 13.5 Summary = 252
• Chapter 14. Technological Forecasting for Research and Development Planning = 255
• 14.1 Introduction = 255
• 14.2 Research = 256
• 14.3 Technology Advancement = 259
• 14.4 Product Development = 261
• 14.5 Testing and Evaluation = 264
• 14.6 Summary = 265
• Chapter 15. Technological Forecasting in Business Decisions = 267
• 15.1 Introduction = 267
• 15.2 What Business Are We in? = 267
• 15.3 Business Planning for Technological Change = 270
• 15.4 Market Share during Transition from Old to New Technology = 274
• 15.5 Anticipating New Technologies = 276
• 15.6 R&D Strategy = 278
• 15.7 Summary = 278
• Chapter 16. Technological Forecasting in Government Planning = 281
• 16.1 Introduction = 281
• 16.2 National Defense = 281
• 16.3 Internal Operations of Government = 283
• 16.4 Regulatory Agencies = 284
• 16.5 Public Goods = 287
• 16.6 Summary = 290
• Chapter 17. Technology Assessment = 293
• 17.1 Introduction = 293
• 17.2 Some Historical Cases = 293
• 17.3 The Role of Technological Forecasting = 299
• 17.4 An Example = 300
• 17.5 Summary = 303
• Chapter 18. Some Common Forecasting Mistakes = 305
• 18.1 Introduction = 305
• 18.2 Environmental Factors that Affect Forecasts = 308
• 18.3 Personal Factors that Affect Forecasts = 313
• 18.4 Core Assumptions = 318
• 18.5 Summary = 322
• Chapter 19. Evaluating Forecasts as Decision Information = 327
• 19.1 Introduction = 327
• 19.2 The Interrogation Model = 328
• 19.3 Summary = 337
• Chapter 20. Presenting the Forecast = 339
• 20.1 Introduction = 339
• 20.2 Marking the Forecast Useful = 340
• 20.3 Making the Forecast Credible = 348
• 20.4 A Checklist for Forecasts = 355
• 20.5 Summary = 358
• Appendix A. Historical Data Tables = 361
• Appendix B. Precursor Events in Several Technologies = 425
• Appendix C. User's Guide to TEKFOR = 445
• Appendix D. Users' Guide to MAXIM = 449
• Appendix E. Uniformly Distributed Random Numbers = 453
• Index = 455