여성취업비율과 모의 연령별 출산율 간의 내생성 분석 = An Analysis of Endogenous Relationship between Female Employment Rate and Maternal Age-Specific Fertility

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper examines the endogenous relationship and casuality analysis between female employment rate and age-specific fertility rate using Korea data over the period 198~2010. We use 4 groups of maternal age-specific, that is, 20~24, 25~29, 30~34, and 35~39 fertility rate. In addition, we compare the results of two models, such as the basic model comprised the above two variables and an extended model controlled both income level and female unemployment. The estimation results indicate that the impact of the change in female employment rate on the determination of maternal age-specific fertility rate is larger than the reverse impact. Specifically, the impacts of the changes in female employment rate on the determinations of maternal age-specific fertility rate varies between 11.70%(20~24) and 41.06%(25~29) in the basic model: the corresponding figures in the extended model are 13.69%(20~24) and 47.91%(30~34). Further, it is established a long-run relationship exists between female employment rate and 2 groups of maternal age- specific, that is 25~29 an 30`34 fertility rate. However, the statistical significances of short-run relationships between employment rate and maternal age-specific fertility provide little evidence. Based on the findings, we can infer that the efficacy of childbirth-encouraging policy will increase if we can differentiate the policy based on the age groups.