Analysis of risk propagation using the world trade network

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

An economic system is an exemplar of a complex system in which all agents interact simultaneously. Interactions between countries have generally been studied using the fow of resources across diverse trade networks, in which the degree of dependence between two countries is typically measured based on the trade volume. However, indirect infuences may not be immediately apparent. Herein, we compared a direct trade network to a trade network constructed using the personalized PageRank (PPR) encompassing indirect infuences. By analyzing the correlation of the gross domestic product (GDP) between countries, we discovered that the PPR trade network has greater explanatory power on the propagation of economic events than direct trade by analyzing the GDP correlation between countries. To further validate our observations, an agentbased model of the spreading economic crisis was implemented for the Russia–Ukraine war of 2022. The model also demonstrates that the PPR explains the actual impact more efectively than the direct trade network. Our research highlights the signifcance of indirect and long-range relationships, which have often been overlooked.

참고문헌 (Reference)

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