러시아 동시베리아 송유관 정채결정요인에 관한 비판적 고찰 = Analysis of Russia's East Siberian Pipeline Policy

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This article examines Russia’s East Siberian pipeline policy. This pipeline policy has changed. At the Sino-Russian summit in May 2003, the leaders of both countries signed an agreement to build the Angarsk-Daqing pipeline route. Therefore, Russia’s pipeline appeared to go to China. Yet, Russia changed its position in December 2004 by signing a directive on the construction of an oil pipeline which would go to Russia’s Pacific shoreline. A half year later, however, the implementation of this plan became uncertain as Russian officials indicated that Moscow would prioritize building a branch pipeline to China. This article attempts to explain why Russia’s East Siberian policy has changed.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

이 글은 러시아의 동시베리아 송유관 정책이 어떤 요인에 의해 결정되었는가를 이해해 보려는 시도이다. 지난 2003년 5월 러∙중 정상회담에서 양국정상이 러시아의 앙가르스크와 중국의 다칭을 잇는 송유관 건설계획을 승인했을때 러시아 송유관 정책은 중국에게 유리하게 전개되는 듯 해 보였다. 하지만, 일본이 자국에 유리한 송유관 건설을 위해 모든 외교력과 경제력을 동원한 이후 러시아 송유관 정책은 일본에게 유리하게 진행되었다. 실제로 지난 2004년 말 러시아 당국은 태평양으로 향하는 송유관 건설계획을 승인했다. 그러나 반년이 조금 지난 2005년 7월에 푸틴 대통령이 중국으로 향하는 송유관 지선 건설을 우선시 할 것임을 밝힌 후 태평양으로 향하는 송유관 건설계획의 실행여부가 불투명해졌다. 이에 필자는 러시아 송유관 정책결정 요인을 체계적으로 짚어보고 러시아의 경제적인 고려가 이 정책에 가장 중요한 역할을 했다고 주장하고 있다.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 "동북아시아 "에너지 안보"와 러시아: 누가 러시아 석유를 차지할 것인가?" 세종연구소. 2004.

2 "Yukos, CNPC Strike a $150 Bln Deal" Moscow Times 2003c.5

3 "Will Russia, the Oil Superpower, Flex Its Muscles" New York Times 2004a.8

4 "Vladimir Putin and the Evolution of Russian Foreign Policy." 2003

5 "Turkey : Country Analysis Brief" 2004

6 "Toward a New International Regime for the Caspian Sea" 52 (52): 37-48, 2005.

7 "Tokyo in Threat to Withdraw from Dollars 11bn Oil Pipeline" Financial Times 2005.4

8 "Tokyo Casts Pipeline Financiing in Doubt" Moscow Times 2005a.5

9 "The Regional and Global Geopolitics of Russo-Chinese Crude Oil Transport" 2004

10 "The Nature Ministry Stops It All" 2003.9

11 "The Long Sunset of Strategic Partnership: Russia's Evolving China Policy" 2 : 295-309, 2004.

12 "The Great Game in the Far East" 2003a.6

13 "The Asian Battle for Russia's Oil and Gas" New York Times 2004.1

14 "The Arms Trade in Russian-Chinese Relations: Identity, Domestic Politics, and Geopolitical Positioning," 47 : 709-732, 2003

15 Buchan, David, "Struggle Looms over Rival Oil Pipeline" 2003

16 "Siberian Pipeline Projects Vie for Support Oil Exports" Financial Times 2003.5

17 "Siberian Oil Decision Stuck in Pipeline" 2003.9

18 Chow, Edward C, "Russian Pipelines: Back to the Future?" 2004

19 "Russian Pipeline Strategies:Business versus Politics." The James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy of Rice University 2004.10

20 "Russian Energy Policy in East Siberia and the Far East" The James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy of Rice University 2004

21 "Russia's Oil in America's Future: Policy, Pipelines, and Prospects." Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace, Stanford University. 2003

22 "Russia's Oil Pipeline Saga" 2004.7

23 "Russia's Latest Oil and Gas Oasis" New York Times 2003.5

24 "Russia's Energy Policy for Asia" The James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy 2004.10

25 "Russia to Run 2 500-Mile Oil Pipeline in East Asia" New York Times 2004.4

26 "Russia Tangles with Japan and China" Asia Times 2004b.9

27 "Russia Fails to Give Japan Clear Signal on Choice of Siberian Oil Pipeline Route" Moscow Times 2003.12

28 Financial Times, "Routes from Siberia to the East"

29 "RFE/RL Newsline" 2005.1

30 "Putin: Russia's Choice" Routledge. 2004

31 "Putin, Hu Sign Off on Oil Pipeline" Moscow Times 2003.5

32 "Putin Will Focus on Energy in Visit to China This Week" New York Times 2002.12

33 "Putin Says Poverty Still the Enemy," Moscow Times 2003.6

34 "Putin Must Secure Russia's Far East" Financial Times 2005.3

35 "Putin Gives Pipeline to Chinese" via World News Connection. 2005.9

36 Clover, Charles, "Putin Calls for Bigger Role in Caspian" Financial Times 2000.4

37 "Price Tag for Fuel Link to Pacific Could Double to Dollars 12bn" Financial Times 2004.5

38 "Pacific Pipeline Gets Offshoot to China" Moscow Times 2005.1

39 "Oil Fuels Japan's Drive to Bring a Thaw to Relations with Russia" Financial Times 2003.1

40 "Natural Resources Ministry Will Turn Down Yukos" translated in The Current Digest of the Post-Soviet Press 2003.10

41 "Moscow's Siberian Pipeline Game" Asia Times 2004a.7

42 "Mikhail Kasyanov Deprives China of Russian Oil" translated in The Current Digest of the Post-Soviet Press 2003.9

43 "Japanese Foreign Ministry Pumping Russian Oil" translated in Russian Press Digest. 2003.6

44 "Japan's Energy Dilemma" 2003.7

45 "Japan to Push Case for Siberia-Pacific Pipeline" Financial Times 2003a.3

46 "Japan and Russia Working Hard to Build Economic Ties" New York Times 2004a.

47 "Japan and Russia Set to Back Pipeline" Financial Times 2003.1

48 "Japan Offers to Fund Oil Link to Siberia" Moscow Times 2003b.4

49 "Japan Offers Pipeline Funding" Financial Times 2003.1

50 "Japan Lures Russia with Dollars 7bn Offer on Pipeline" Financial Times 2003.10

51 "Hu Visits Putin on First Trip Abroad" Moscow Times 2003a.5

52 "Gazprom, YukosMull Partnership in Siberia," Moscow Times 2001.10

53 "Energy Empire: Oil, Gas and Russia's Revival" 2004

54 "Eastern Oil Triangle" translated in The Current Digest of the Post-Soviet Press 2004.1

55 "Diplomatic Coup for Japan as Russia Picks Oil Pipeline Route" 2005.1

56 "China-Bound Putin Is Coy on Energy" Moscow Times 2004.10

57 "China's Russian Pipe Dream" Asia Times 2004.9

58 "Cabinet Energy Plan Uses a Crystal Ball" Moscow Times 2003.5

59 "Beijing Strikes Back over Russian Pipeline Delay" Asia Times 2003.9

60 Cook, Gary, "Baikal Watch: Oil and Politics" 2004

61 "Asian Security and China's Energy Needs" 3 : 197-219, 2003

62 "Asian Oil Rivalry: China's Thirst for Imports May Change Its Behaviour" Financial Times 2003.9

63 "Asia's High-Risk Energy Triangle" 2003.7

64 "Analysis: Russia, China, and the Politics of Energy" 2005