독재정권 몰락의 급작성과 북한 급변사태에 대한 이론적 검토 = The Logic of the Sudden Collapse of Dictatorship and its Implications for North Korean Breakdown

국문 초록 (Abstract)

혁명은 거대 다수의 조정의 결과이다. 다수의 조정은 순차적으로 이루어진다. 우연한 계기에 일정 수 이상의 임계 대중의 선택은 다른 참여자의 선택을 유도한다. 그리고 이는 다시 더 많은 이의 참여로 이어진다. 이 되먹임의 결과 시민 대다수의 참여와 쏠림으로 독재가 무너진다. 이 모든 과정이 마무리 될 때까지 혁명을 둘러싼 불확실성은 사라지지 않는다. 북한 정권이 “우리식 사회주의”의 고수 대신 새로운 발전 목표를 설정할 경우 이는 위험 감수형 개혁으로 이어질 가능성이 높다. 개혁의 진퇴 속에서 북한 주민은 빈번하게 손실을 경험하면서 정권에 대해 보다 분명한 적대감을 지닐 것이며 엘리트의 갈등이 노골화될 소지가 크다. 이 상태에서 자신의 혁명적 의지를 새롭게 자각한 임계 대중이 출현하고 쏠림의 상호작용이 발생하면서 북한의 급변사태가 발생할 수 있다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The interdependence of choices among heterogeneous individuals and positive feedback of initiatives by critical mass cause the unexpected sudden collapse of dictatorship. In North Korea the totalitarian surveilance and the escape of brave individuals out of North Korea have prevented the formation of critical mass. As long as the North Korean ruling elites cling to the status quo, there will be little possibility for regime collapse. However, the direction of regime trajectory has changed since the crisis in the late 1990s. The difficulty of cult of personality, the death of Kim Jung Il, and the military-first-line lead to the institutionalization of collective decision making. At the same time, the North Korean regime has started to set the higher goal than the protection of Juche socialism, which makes risk-taking policies likely to be adopted in order to avoid the sure loss and failure. As a result, reform processes may take a stop-and-go style. The experience of frequent losses would intensify the feeling of frustration among North Korean inhabitants and political polarization of elites over risk-taking policies would lead to political polarization and paralysis of state apparatus. These changes, if happens, would lead to collective action for regime change.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 한병진, "북한정권의 내구성에 대한 이론적 고찰" 세종연구소 15 (15): 119-141, 2009

2 정한구, "북한은 붕괴될 것인가" 5 (5): 45-75, 2009

3 란코프, 안드레이, "동유럽 붕괴-북 정권 붕괴 무엇이 다른가? 내부 절대통제...외 부압력 미비" 데일리NK

4 Bradley, Martin, "Under the Loving Care of the Fatherly Leader: North Korea and the Kim Dynasty" Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 2004

5 Buchanan, Mark, "Ubiquity: Why Catastrophes Happen" Three Rivers Press 2001

6 Weyland, Kurt, "Toward a New Theory of Institutional Change" 60 (60): 281-314, 2008

7 Van de Walle, Nicolas, "Tipping Games: When Do Opposition Parties Coalesce?, In Andreas Schedler, In Electoral Authoritarianism: The Dynamics of Unfree Competition" Lynne Rienner Publishers 2008

8 Granovetter, Mark, "Threshold Models of Collective Behavior" 83 (83): 1420-1443, 1978

9 Kahneman, Daniel, "Thinking, Fast and Slow" Farrar, Straus and Giroux 2011

10 Noelle-Neumann, Elisabeth, "The Spiral of Silence: Our Social Skin" University of Chicago Press 1984

11 Weingast, Barry, "The Political Foundations of Democracy and the Rule of Law" 91 : 245-263, 1997

12 Olson, Macur, "The Logic of Collective Action" Cambridge University Press 1965

13 Skocpol, Theda, "States and Social Revolutions: A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia, and China" Cambridge University Press 1979

14 Roeder, Philip, "Red Sunset" Princeton University Press 1993

15 Chwe, Michael, "Rational Ritual: Culture, Coordination and Common Knowledge" Princeton University Press 2001

16 Kuran, Timur, "Private Truths, Public Lies: The Social Consequences of Preference Falsification" Harvard University Press 1997

17 Snyder, Richard, "Paths out of Sultanistic Regimes: Combining Structural and Voluntarist Perspectives, In Sultanisitc Regimes" The Johns Hopkins University Press 1998

18 Elster, Jon, "Nuts and Bolts for the Social Sciences" Cambridge University Press 1989

19 Kuran, Timur, "Now out of Never: The Element of Surprise in the Eastern European Revolution of 1989" 44 : 7-48, 1989

20 Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, "North Korean Economic Reform and Political Stability" Hoover Institute Press 1996

21 Schelling, Thomas, "Micromotives and Macrobehavior" W.W. Norton and Company 1978

22 Smith, Benjamin, "Life of the Party: The Origins of Regime Breakdown and Persistence under Single-Party Rule" 57 (57): 421-451, 2005

23 Noland, Marcus, "Korea after Kim Jong-il" Institute for International Economics 2004

24 Grief, Avner, "Institutions and the Path to the Modern Economy" Cambridge University Press 2006

25 McEahern, Patrick, "Inside the Red Box: North Korea's Post-Totalitarian Politics Korea's Post-Totalitarianism" Columbia University Press 2010

26 Pierson, Paul, "Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Politics" 94 (94): 251-267, 2000

27 Coleman, James S., "Foundations of Social Theory" Harvard University Press 1990

28 Ball, Philip, "Critical Mass. How One Thing Leads to Another" Arrow Books 2004

29 Walder, Andrew G., "Communist Neo-Traditionalism: Work and Authority in Chinese Industry" University of California Press 1988

30 Hardin, Russell, "Collective Action" The Johns Hopkins University Press 1982

31 Kahneman, Daniel, "Choices, Values, and Frames" Cambridge University Press 2000

32 Kurzman, Charles, "Can Understanding Undermine Explanation? Confused Experience of Revolution" 34 (34): 328-351, 2004

33 Tullock, Gordon, "Autocracy" Kluwer Academic Publish 1987

34 Oliver, Pamela, "A Theory of the Critical Mass. I. Interdependence, Group Heterogeneity, and the Production of Collective Action" 91 (91): 522-556, 1985