System Dynamics를 이용한 원자력발전의 기술가치 평가 = A System Dynamics Approach for Valuing Nuclear Power Technology

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Nuclear technology made a great contribution to the national economy and society by localization of nuclear power plant design, and by stabilization of electricity price, etc. It is very important to conduct the retrospective analysis for the nuclear technology contribution to the national economy and society, but it is more important to conduct prospective analysis for the nuclear technology contribution. The term technology value is often used in the prospective analysis to value the result of technology development. There are various definitions of technology value, but generally it means the increment of future revenue or the reduction of future cost by technology development. These technology valuation methods are widely used in various fields (information technology or energy technology, etc). The main objective of this research is to develop valuation methodology that represents unique characteristics of nuclear power technology. The valuation methodology that incorporates market share changes of generation technologies was developed. The technology valuation model which consists of five modules (electricity demand forecast module, technology development module, market share module, electricity generation module, total cost module) to incorporate market share changes of generation technologies was developed. The nuclear power technology value assessed by this technology valuation model was 3 times more than the value assessed by the conventional method. So it was confirmed that it is very important to incorporates market share changes of generation technologies. The valuation results of nuclear power technology in this study can be used as policy data for ensuring the benefits of nuclear power R&D (Research and Development) investment.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 "한국전자통신연구원 연구성과의 경제사회적 파급효과 분석" 기술과 가치 14 (14): 50-, 2004

2 "한국원자력연구소 원자로계통설계 기술자립의 국가경제 파급효과 분석" 8 (8): 499-524, 2005년6월

3 "한국원자력연구소 연구개발 투자의 국가경제 파급효과 분석연구"

4 "한국기계연구원의 국가경제에 대한 파급효과 분석" 한국기계연구원 보고서 1998

5 "제2차전력수급기본계획" 산업자원부 2004

6 "정보통신 연구사업의 국가경제에 대한 파급효과 및 기여도 분석" 정보통신정책연구원 연구보고서 2000

7 "정보통신 연구개발투자의 경제적 효과 연구" 정보통신연구원 정책연구 2000

8 "소관연구기관 성과분석 및 경제사회적 기여전략 연구 보고서" 2004

9 "기술가치 평가(II)" KHIDIzine 2001

10 "국가원자력기술지도 (NuTRM)"

11 "거시계량경제모형을 이용한 연구개발 투자의 정책효과 분석" 과학기술정책관리연구소 1998

12 "Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase One)"

13 "Learning and Cost Reductions for Generating Technologies in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)" 2004

14 "Factors Affecting the Cost of Airplanes Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences" 1936