Stocks for the long run : a guide to selecting markets for long-term growth

목차 (Table of Contents)

• CONTENTS
• PART 1 THE VERDICT OF HISTORY
• CHAPTER 1 STOCK AND BOND RETURNS SINCE 1802 = 3
• "Everybody Ought to Be Rich" = 3
• Financial Market Returns from 1802, = 5
• Historical Series on Bonds. = 7
• Gold and Commodity Prices = 8
• Interpretation of Returns = 10
• Nominal Stock Returns = 10
• Real Stock Returns = 10
• Gold and Commodity Prices = 12
• Capital Appreciation and Dividends = 12
• Real Returns on Fixed-Income Assets = 14
• Explanations for the Fall in Fixed-Income Returns = 16
• Equity Premium = 18
• International Returns = 20
• Germany. = 22
• United Kingdom = 22
• Japan. = 23
• Foreign Bonds = 25
• Conclusions. = 25
• Appendix : Stocks from 1802 to 1871 = 26
• CHAPTER 2 STOCKS, BONDS, AND LONG-TERM RISK = 28
• Risk and Long-Term Returns = 28
• Comparison of Stock and Bond Returns = 29
• The Historical Studies of Stock Returns = 33
• A Radical Shift in Sentiment = 37
• Post-Crash View of Stock Returns = 38
• Conclusion. = 39
• Appendix : Measures of Risk = 40
• PART 2 STOCK RETURNS
• CHAPTER 3 STOCKS, STOCK AVERAGES, AND STOCK RETURNS = 43
• Market Averages = 43
• The Dow Jones = 43
• Computation of the Dow Index = 48
• Value-Weighted Indexes = 49
• The Cowles Index = 49
• Standard & Poor's Index = 50
• Market Capitalization = 51
• Composition of Stock Indexes = 53
• Total Returnq Indexes = 54
• Asset Price Indexes = 54
• Arithmetic and Geometric Returns = 65
• Diversification: Increase Return and Reduce Risk = 57
• Summary. = 58
• Appendix A : What Happened to the Original 12 Dow Industrials? = 59
• Appendix B: The Relation Between Arithmetic and Geometric Returns = 60
• CHAPTER 4 STOCK PRICES, DIVIDENDS AND EARNINGS = 62
• An Evil Omen Returns = 62
• Valuation-Fundamentals or Sentiment? = 65
• Valuation of Cash Flows from Stocks = 65
• Earnings and Dividend Yields = 68
• Do Stock Prices Depend on Earnings or Dividends? = 72
• Historical Data on Dividends and Earnings = 73
• Can Dividend Yields Be Used to Predict Future Returns? = 74
• Conclusions. = 77
• Appendix : The Invariance of Price to the Payout Ratio = 78
• CHAPTER 5 LARGE STOCKS, SMALL STOCKS, VALUE STOCKS, GROWTH STOCKS = 79
• Outperforming the Market = 79
• Small-Stock Premium = 80
• Risks from Investing in Small Stocks = 81
• Other Value Criteria = 87
• Dividend Yields = 90
• Value and Growth Stocks = 99
• Investment Strategy = 93
• CHAPTER 6 THE NIFTY FIFTY REVISITED = 95
• The Nifty Fifty = 96
• What Is the Record? = 96
• What Is the Right P／E Ratio? = 100
• Conclusion. = 103
• Appendix : Corporate Changes in the Nifty Fifty Stocks = 103
• CHAPTER 7 TAXES AND STOCK RETURNS = 105
• History of the Tax Code = 106
• The Tax Benefits of Capital Gains = 106
• A Total After-Tax Returns Index = 110
• Summary. = 113
• Appendix A: History of the Tax Code = 113
• Appendix B: Gain from Deferring Taxes = 115
• CHAPTER 8 GLOBAL INVESTING = 116
• Foreign Stock Returns = 117
• Summary of Data on Global Markets = 119
• Sources of Dollar Risk in International Stocks: = 123
• Exchange-Rate Risk = 123
• Dollar Risk = 124
• The Rationale for Investing Abroad = 126
• Hedging Foreign Exchange Risks = 127
• Costs of Hedging Foreign Markets = 127
• Do Currency Hedges Pay Off for Stock Investors? = 128
• Hedging Rapidly Depreciating Currencies = 128
• Stocks and the Breakdown of the European Exchange-Rate Mechanism = 131
• Summary. = 133
• PART 3 ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT OF INVESTING
• CHAPTER 9 MONEY, GOLD, AND INFLATION = 137
• Money and Prices = 138
• The Gold Standard = 143
• The Establishment of the Federal Reserve = 144
• Fall of the Gold Standard = 145
• Postdevaluation Policy, 146
• Post-Gold Monetary Policy = 147
• The Federal Reserve and Monetary Creation = 148
• How the Fed Affects Interest Rates = 149
• Who Makes the Decisions about Monetary Creation? = 149
• Government Deficits and the Monetary Process = 151
• Monetization of Government Debt = 152
• Stocks and Bonds in a Deficit Economy = 153
• Conclusions. = 154
• CHAPTER 10 INFLATION AND STOCKS = 155
• Stocks as Inflationary Hedges = 156
• Why Stocks Fall as a Short-Term Inflation Hedge = 159
• Higher Interest Rates = 159
• Supply-Induced Inflation = 160
• Fed Policy and Government Spending = 161
• Inflation and the US Tax Code = 162
• Inflationary Distortions to Corporate Earnings = 162
• Inflation Biases in Interest Costs = 163
• Inflation and the Capital Gains Tax = 164
• Conclusions. = 167
• CHAPTER 11 STOCKS AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE = 168
• Who Determines the Business Cycle? = 169
• Stock Returns around Business-Cycle Turning Points = 173
• Gains Through Timing the Business Cycle = 175
• How Hard Is It. to Predict the Business Cycle? = 179
• Concluding Comments = 182
• CHAPTER 12 EVENTS WHICH MOVE FINANCIAL MARKETS = 183
• What Moves the Market = 184
• Uncertainty and the Market = 185
• Democrats and Republicans = 188
• Stocks and War = 191
• The World Wars = 193
• Post-1945 Conflicts = 194
• Summary = 196
• CHAPTER 13 ECONOMIC DATA AND FINANCIAL MARKETS = 197
• Principles of Market Reaction = 198
• Information Content of Data Releases = 199
• Economic Growth and Stock Prices = 202
• The Employment Report = 204
• Cycle of Announcements = 205
• Inflation Reports = 208
• Core Inflation = 209
• Impact on Financial Markets = 210
• Fed Policy = 210
• Summary = 211
• PART 4 STOCK FLUCTUATIONS IN THE SHORT RON
• CHAPTER 14 STOCK INDEX FUTURES AND OPTIONS = 215
• Stock Index Futures = 215
• Impact of Index Futures = 218
• Basics of Futures Markets = 218
• Index Arbitrage = 221
• Triple Witching = 224
• Margin and Leverage = 225
• Advantage to Trading Futures = 226
• Index Options = 227
• Buying Index Options = 230
• Selling Index Options = 231
• Long-Term Trends and Stock Index Futures = 232
• CHAPTER 15 MARKET VOLATILITY AND THE STOCK CRASH OF OCTOBER 1987 = 234
• The Stock Crash of October 1987 = 236
• Causes of the Stock Crash = 238
• Exchange Rate Policies = 238
• The Stock Crash and the Futures Market = 240
• The Nature of Market Volatility = 241
• Historical Trends of Stock Volatility = 242
• Distribution of Large Daily Changes = 243
• The Economics of Market Volatility = 248
• Epilogue to the Crash = 250
• CHAPTER 16 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND INVESTING WITH, THE TREND = 251
• The Nature of Technical Analysis = 251
• Charles Dow-Technical Analyst = 252
• Randomness of Stock Prices = 253
• Trending Markets and Price Reversals = 256
• Moving Averages = 257
• Testing the Moving Average Strategy = 258
• Results = 259
• Conclusion = 264
• CHAPTER 17 CALENDAR ANOMALIES = 266
• The January Effect = 267
• Causes of the January Effect = 272
• Monthly Returns = 274
• Intramonthly returns = 278
• Day-of-the-Week Effect = 280
• What's an Investor to Do? = 281
• PART 5 BUILDING WEALTH THROUGH STOCKS
• CHAPTER 18 FUNDS, MANAGERS, AND LONG-TERM INVESTING = 285
• Performance of Equity Mutual Funds = 285
• Detecting Skilled Money Managers = 289
• Reasons for Underperformance of Managed Money = 290
• A Little Learning Is a Dangerous Thing = 291
• Profiting from Informed Trading = 293
• Power of Compound Returns = 294
• What's an Investor to Do? = 294
• CHAPTER 19 INVESTING FOR THE LONG RUN = 296
• Risk and Return = 297
• Best Portfolio Allocations = 297
• Historical Returns and Asset Allocation = 300
• Equities-Domestic and Global = 301
• Practical Aspects of Stock Investing = 303
• Conclusion. = 308
• INDEX = 311