출하중량과 화물차종의 결합선택모형 추정 - 국내 제조업 화주를 대상으로 = A Joint Model Selecting Shipment and Truck Size : Focusing on Shippers in the Korean Manufacturing Industry

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper estimates a disaggregate freight transport logit model selecting shipment and truck size using a dataset provided by the 2011 Korean Commodity Flow Survey. The paper also investigates possible determinants of the joint choice of domestic manufacturing shippers, which include transport service attributes, shipper characteristics, and shipment characteristics. The results indicate that the joint choice model is most feasible for the Korean road freight transport sector of manufactured goods. This joint model also shows transport time and freight rates, the ownership of the same truck as the commercial truck hired by a shipper, and whether the vehicle is overloaded as significant determinants.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구는 국내 제조업 화주를 대상으로 한 2011년의 사업체 물류현황조사 자료를 이용해 출하중량과 화물차종의 개별 결합선택 로짓모형을 추정하였다. 또한 이들 화주의 결합선택행태에 영향을 미치는 요인들인 운송서비스 특성, 화주 특성 및 출하화물 특성들을 분석하였다. 연구 결과 국내 제조업의 화물운송부문에 대해서도 해외의 선행 연구들처럼 출하중량과 화물차종의 결합선택모형이 타당한 것으로 나타났다. 또한 이러한 결합선택형태에 운송시간과 운임뿐만 아니라 화주가 출하할 때 이용하는 영업용 화물차종과 동일한 자가용 화물차의 보유 여부와 과적 여부 등도 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 최창호, "탄력성 분석을 통한 화주의 운송수단 선택특성 연구" 11 (11): 107-124, 2003

2 최창호, "컨테이너 육상운송의 모달 쉬프트 저항요인 평가 연구: 공로링크와 철도링크의 환적노드를 중심으로" 대한교통학회 30 (30): 17-30, 2012

3 한국교통연구원, "전국 화물 기종점통행량 조사" 2012

4 한국교통연구원, "전국 화물 기종점 조사 자료의 상세분석" 2007

5 주지원, "로짓모형을 이용한 화물 품목별 화물운송 시간가치 산정 연구" 대한교통학회 27 (27): 163-168, 2009

6 최창호, "도로사업의 투자분석을 위한 화물운송시간가치 산정" 대한교통학회 20 (20): 41-52, 2002

7 崔昶浩, "국내 지역간 공로화물운송에 대한 행태적 수단 선택모형의 개발" 서울大學校 大學院 1998

8 Vieira, L. F. M., "The value of service in freight transportation" Massachusetts Institute of Technology 1992

9 Abate, M., "The optimal shipment size and truck size choice–The allocation of trucks across hauls" 59 : 262-277, 2014

10 Winston, C. M., "The Demand for Freight Transportation:Models and Applications" 17 : 419-427, 1983

11 Johnson, D., "Shippers' response to transport cost and time and model specification in freight mode and shipment size choice" University of Leeds 2011

12 Holguin-Veras, J., "Revealed preference analysis of commercial vehicle choice process" 128 : 336-346, 2002

13 Abdelwahab, W. M., "Modelling the Demand for Freight Transport" 26 : 49-70, 1992

14 Arunotayanun, K., "Modelling freight supplier behaviour and response" Imperial College of London 2009

15 Jiang, F., "Freight Demand Characteristics and Mode Choice: An Analysis of the Results of Modeling with Disaggregate Revealed Preference Data" 2 : 149-158, 1999

16 de Jong, G. C, "European transport conference" Noordwijkerhout 2009

17 Liu, X., "Estimating value of time savings for freight transport: a simultaneous decision model of transport mode choice and shipment size" Orebro University Business School 2012

18 Abdelwahab, W. M., "Elasticities of Mode Choice Probabilities and Market Elasticities of Demand: Evidence from a Simultaneous Mode Choice/Shipment Size Freight Transport Models" 34 : 257-266, 1998

19 Train, K. E., "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation" Cambridge University Press 2003

20 Ben-Akiva, M. E., "Discrete Choice Analysis: Theory and Application to Travel Demand" MIT Press 1985

21 Chiang, Y., "Development of a policy sensitive model for forecasting freight demand, Final report" MIT 1981

22 Winston, C. M., "Conceptual Development in the Economics of Transportation: An Interpretive Survey" 23 (23): 57-94, 1985

23 Gray, R., "Behavioural Approaches to Freight Transport Modal Choice" 2 (2): 161-184, 1982

24 McFadden, D., "Analytical Studies in Transport Economics" Cambridge University Press 138-157, 1985

25 The Center for Urban Transportation Research, "Analysis of Freight Movement Mode Choice Factors" The University of South Florida 2003

26 Oum, T. H., "A survey of recent developments in transportation cost functions research" 32 : 423-463, 1996

27 de Jong, G. C., "A microsimulation model of shipment size and transport chain choice" 41 : 950-965, 2007

28 Habibi, S., "A discrete choice model of transport chain and shipment size on Swedish commodity flow survey 2004/2005" KTH Royal Institute of Technology 2010

29 Windisch, E., "A disaggregate freight transport model of transport chain and shipment size choice on the Swedish Commodity Flow Survey" Delft University of Technology 2009

30 Winston, C. M., "A Disaggregate Model of the Demand for Intercity Freight Transportation" 49 : 981-1006, 1981

31 한국교통연구원, "2013년 화물운송시장 화주업체 조사보고서" 2014

32 한국교통연구원, "2012년 화물운송시장 화주업체 조사보고서" 2013

33 한국교통연구원, "2011년 화물운송시장 화주업체 조사보고서" 2012

34 한국교통연구원, "2010년 화물운송시장 화주업체 조사보고서" 2011