남북한 통일 이후의 내부이주와 실업률 - 독일 통일의 경험으로부터 예측 - = Internal Migration and Unemployment Rates after the Korean Reunification

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study attempts to predict changes on the North Korean labor market that are likely to occur after the Korean reunification. It presents on how to predict North Korea’s internal migration rates and unemployment rates after unification from Germany’s experience. If unification were to be achieved completely similar to German experience, North Korea could be treated as a province of one country that could be founded after reunification. After estimating the internal migration among provinces of South Korea, I can predict the migration rate of North Korea to South Korea using the estimated migration equation. If unification were to be achieved completely in the current situation where there exists a significant economic gap between the two Koreas, it is estimated that 7 percent of North Korean population will migrate to South Korea. This study applies the model of estimation developed by Keil and Newell (1993) to analyze unemployment rates in North Korea after unification. It may temporarily rise up to 30∼50 percent when the net migration between the two regions at equilibrium is close to zero. In conclusion, the radical and abrupt economic integration of the two Koreas in the way of the German reunification will exert serious shocks on the labor markets of both Koreas.

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