On The Impact of Public Debt on Economic Growth A Comparative Analysis of Sri Lanka and Bangladesh = 공공부채가 경제성장에 미치는 영향 스리랑카와 방글라데시의 비교연구

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구는 1990년부터 2022년까지 스리랑카와 방글라데시 두 남아시아 경제에서
공공부채가 경제성장에 미치는 영향을 조사한다조사한다. 동적 랜덤 효과 패널 회귀모형을 사용하여
거시경제 및 제도 변수의 현재값과 지연값을 포함함으로써 공공부채의 지속적 영향을
포착하였다포착하였다. 분석 결과결과, 국내 및 대외 공공부채는 현재 및 1기 지연 시 모두 GDP 성장률에
통계적으로 유의미한 부정적 영향을 미쳤다미쳤다. 이는 부채 과부하 가설가설(debt overhang hypothesis)을
강력히 지지하며지지하며, 공공 차입의 부정적 결과가 시간적으로 지속되어 미래 경제 성과를 저해할 수
있음을 시사한다시사한다.
또한또한, 지연된 인플레이션율은 성장률에 유의미한 부정적 연관성을 보였으며보였으며, 과거 물가
불안정이 현재 경제 활동을 지속적으로 제약함을 나타낸다나타낸다. 규제 품질품질(regulatory quality)과
중등교육 등록률등록률(secondary education enrollment)은 지연 형태에서 긍정적이지만 통계적으로
유의미하지 않은 효과를 보였으며보였으며, 이는 제도 개선과 인적 자본 개발이 지속 가능한 성장에
핵심적임을 강조한다강조한다. 반면 인구 증가와 정치적 안정성안정성(political stability)은 동적 모형에서 GDP 성장률과 견고한 관계를 보이지 않았다않았다.
전반적으로
재정 건전성과 선제적 거시경제 정책의 필요성을 강조하며강조하며, 개발도상국의
지속 가능 한 경제 발전을 위한 효과적인 부채 관리 전략과 장기 정책 프레임워크 수립을
지지하는 실증적 증거를 제시한다제시한다.
주제어
주제어: 공공부채공공부채, 동적 랜덤 효과효과, 지연 변수변수, 재정 정책정책, 인플레이션인플레이션, 인적 자본자본, 제도 품질품질, 경제성장

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The quantitative study demonstrates the impact of domestic and foreign debt on economic growth in the South Asia nations, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh over the period 1990-2022, employing a random effects panel regression model that emphasizes lagged (dynamic) effects. By incorporating both current and lagged values of macroeconomic and institutional variables, the results imply that high level of public debt, current year and lagged by one period, have significant negative effects on GDP. This results strongly supports the debt overhang hypothesis, showing the adverse effects of public borrowing endure over time and may constrain future economic enhancement. Moreover, lagged inflation rates are indicate the significant depress growth, mentioning the prolonged consequences of past price instability.
The study evaluates institutional and human capital variables, implies that regulatory quality and secondary education enrollment exhibit positive but statistically non-significant lagged effects on growth, proving that gains from improving institutions and education are essential factors for economic development. Population growth and Political stability
meanwhile, were found to have no robust effect in the dynamic random effects specification. These evidences underscore the critical importance of forward-looking fiscal discipline and strong macroeconomic stabilization policies. Finally, the findings provide compelling evidence that policy actions needed for debt management strategies and long-term strategic planning in achieving sustainable economic development in developing economies.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• CHAPTER 1 5
• INTRODUCTION 5
• 1.1 The Importance of Research Topic 5
• 1.1.1 Background of Study 5
• 1.1.2 Significance for developing countries 7
• 1.1.3 Relevance to Sri Lanka and Bangladesh 7
• 1.1.4 Economic Indicators in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh 10
• 1.2 Current Research on the Topic and Research Gap 11
• 1.2.1 Overview of Existing Theories and Findings 11
• 1.2.2 Comparative Analysis in the Debt-Growth Literature 12
• 1.2.3 Research Gap 14
• 1.3 The Contribution of the Present Study 15
• 1.3.1Comparative Insights 15
• 1.3.2 Methodological Contribution 17
• 1.3.3 Implications for Policymakers and Future Studies 18
• CHAPTER 2 19
• LITERATURE REVIEW 19
• 2.1 Theory of Literature 19
• 2.2 Extended Literature 20
• 2.2.1 Understanding Public Debt and GDP Relationship 22
• 2.2.1.1 Public Debt and Economic Growth Relationship 22
• 2.2.1.2 Debt Composition and Its Impacts 22
• 2.2.1.3 Policy Implications 22
• 2.2.1.4 Domestic vs. external debt 23
• 2.2.1.5 Short term vs. long term debt 23
• 2.2.1.6 Fixed vs. floating rate debt 24
• 2.2.1.7 Concessional and non- concessional debt 25
• 2.2.2 Theoretical Linkages between Public Debt and GDP 25
• 2.2.2.1 The Debt Overhang Hypothesis 25
• 2.2.2.2 The Crowding-Out Effect 26
• 2.2.2.3 Role of Public Investment and Debt Financing 27
• 2.2.2.4 Debt Sustainability and Economic Stability 27
• 2.3 Hypothesis development 28
• 2.3.1 Hypothesis 1. The effect of X on Y 28
• CHAPTER 3 30
• METHODOLOGY 30
• 3.1 Study Overview 30
• 3.1.1 Overview of Sri Lanka and Bangladesh Economies 30
• 3.1.2 Institutional and Policy Environment 30
• 3.2 Research Design and Data 31
• 3.2.1 Research Design 31
• 3.2.2 Sampling Design: Country Selection 31
• 3.2.3 Data Collection and Sources 31
• 3.2.4 Study Period 32
• 3.3 Measurement of Variables 32
• 3.3.1 Dependent Variable 33
• 3.3.2 Independent Variables 33
• 3.3.3 Control Variables 34
• 3.4 Analytical Strategy 35
• CHAPTER 4 37
• RESULTS 37
• 4.1 Introduction 37
• 4.2 Descriptive Statistics 37
• 4.2.1 Descriptive analysis – Overall 37
• 4.3 Analysis of Economic Growth (GDP) 41
• 4.4 Analysis of Public Debt 42
• 4.5 Correlation Analysis: Pearson Pairwise Correlation 45
• 4.6 Panel Regression Analysis 48
• 4.6.1 Model Selection 48
• 4.6.2 Assumption Testing 49
• 4.6.3 Regression Estimations 52
• 4.6.4 Robustness and endogeneity concerns 54
• CHAPTER 5 56
• DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION 56
• 5.1 Summary of the Research Findings 56
• 5.2 Theoretical Implications 56
• 5.3 Practical (policy) Implications 57
• 5.3.1 Governance and Debt Management Differences 59
• 5.3.2 Sri Lanka Concrete Fiscal and Debt Reforms 61
• 5.3.3 Bangladesh Concrete Fiscal and Debt Reforms 61
• 5.4 Limitations of the Study and the Direction for Future Research 62
• 5.5 Conclusion 53
• REFERENCES 65
• 초록 72
• APPENDICE 73
• ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 86