(THE) IMPACT OF AIR TRANSPORT TO UGANDA’S TRADE VOLUME

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

A lot has been said and speculated about Uganda Airlines since its closure in May 2001. Scholars, businessmen, politicians and many other categories of people have come up with mostly unqualified schools of thought about the role the Airline was playing or would have played to the plight of the country especially towards trade benefits.
My quest for some of the answers to ascertain the gravity the airline was/would provide therefore led me to an analysis of a number of literature reviews. This prompted me to examine the effects of some of the determinants of Air transport to Uganda’s trade volume.
In my probe, trade volume (TV) which in my case was the summation of total exports to total imports in a given period was the dependent variable while air departures (AD),air exports (AX) and terms of trade (TOT) were taken as the independent variables. I therefore collected data for each of the explanatory variables for the period 1991 to 2014. Unit root test was done to avoid non stationarity otherwise referred to as the trending behavior of variables over time. This was done using the ADF tool and TOT was found to be stationary at level while the other variables were found to be stationary at first difference. The ordinary least squares (OLS) method was used to estimate the relationship between trade volume and its determinants using STATA software.
The regression process indicated that air departures and terms of trade have a very small almost insignificant bearing to trade volume. On the other hand, air exports have more gravity to trade volume at 10% level of significance.
Finally, a review of the Uganda’s freight charges to the commercial airlines as well as improvement and expansion of the cold storage facilities at the airport would improve the air trade process and consequently the trade volume.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• CHAPTER 1 1
• INTRODUCTION 1
• 1.1 Introduction 1
• 1.2 Background to Air transport in Uganda 2
• 1.3 Statement of Problem 5
• 1.4 Purpose of the study 7
• 1.5 Objectives 7
• CHAPTER II 9
• LITERATURE REVIEW 9
• 2.1 Theoretical Literature 9
• CHAPTER III 12
• UGANDA’S TRADE 12
• 3.1 Overview 12
• 3.2 Export –Import Performance of Uganda 13
• 3.3 Uganda’s Trade Volume Direction 14
• 3.4 Uganda Main Import origins 17
• 3.5 Main Export Destinations 18
• 3.6 Main Export Items 21
• 3.7 Main Import Items 22
• CHAPTER IV 24
• STATUS OF TRADE INFRASTRUCTURE AT ENTEBBE AIRPORT 24
• 4.1 Cargo Handling 24
• 4.2 The Customs 25
• 4.3 Banking 26
• 4.4 Internet 28
• 4.5 Airport Expansion 28
• CHAPTER V 30
• TRAFFIC FLOW 30
• 5.1 Aircraft Movement 30
• 5.2 Total Passenger Flow 31
• CHAPTER VI 34
• EMPIRICAL RESEARCH DESIGN 34
• 6.1 Data 34
• 6.2 Hypotheses and brief description of variables 34
• 6.2.1 Dependent Variable 34
• Trade Volume 34
• 6.2.2 Independent variables 34
• 6.3 Model Specification 36
• 6.4 Unit root test 37
• CHAPTER VII 39
• EMPIRICAL RESULT 39
• 7.1 Data Analysis 39
• 7.1.1 Descriptive statistics 39
• Variables 39
• Summary Statistics of level data 40
• 7.1.2 Stationarity Test Result 40
• 7.1.3 Variables at level 41
• 7.1.4 Variables at first difference 42
• 7.1.5 Unit root test results 42
• 7.1.6 Ordinary Least Squares 44
• 7.2 Empirical Results and Interpretation 45
• CHAPTER VIII 47
• CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS 47
• 8.1 CONCLUSION 47
• 8.2 POLICY IMPLICATIONS 48
• Limitations and Further study 49
• REFERENCES 51
• WEBSITES 54